Showers and thunderstorms developed across portions of Middle Tennessee on September 27, 2023. While these were generally non-severe, one thunderstorm near Murfreesboro became briefly severe with a 60 mph wind gust measured which downed a tree on a nearby college campus.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed across portions of Middle Tennessee on September 27, 2023. While these were generally non-severe, one thunderstorm near Murfreesboro became briefly severe with a 60 mph wind gust measured which downed a tree on a nearby college campus.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 27, 11:41 AM CST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 With once again mostly clear skies, favorable dewpoint depressions, and generally light southerly to calm winds, it is likely patchy fog will once again develop as these early morning hours progress near bodies of water, usual fog prone locations, and higher elevations of mid state region. Overall, expecting best chances of shower and thunderstorm activity to remain just north of our area at least through tonight. Locations that will have greatest chance of rainfall across mid state will be Highland Rim and Upper Cumberland Regions. Consensus model blended solutions continuing to show a rather diffuse/unorganized surface pattern across our area with best surface high pressure influences positioned to our east through Thursday afternoon. The main weather player through Thursday afternoon will be upper level troughing influences across our area in association with an upper level low expected to be centered across western Ohio River Valley Region that will slowly push eastward and then northeastward with time into eastern Great Lakes Region by late Thursday afternoon. Rounds of increased moisture advection are expected across mid state region, moving in from the north, specifically during three distinct periods, one later this morning through afternoon hours today, another mainly after midnight tonight, and yet another as the day on Thursday progresses. Good overall blended model consensus on this developing pattern, but CAMs, North American, and Global models certainly differ on areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms across mid state region. Believe overall best period for showers and thunderstorms across mid state region will be after midnight tonight through Thursday afternoon. Not expecting any strong to severe convection tonight, but can not totally rule out a few strong thunderstorms developing as Thursday progresses. However, initially, it looks like best period for any strong to severe convection potential will be during late afternoon hours today through early evening hours tonight. Locations generally around and north of I-40 Corridor, especially locations east of I-65 Corridor, particularly eastern portions of the Highland Rim and Upper Cumberland Regions, look to be favored areas for stronger convective development. Reasoning based on some model sounding profiles suggesting atmospheric instability and supportive low to mid level lapse rates possible conducive to strong convective development, although overall atmospheric shear continues to remain relatively weak. Taking a look at expected temperature ranges, maybe a degree or two cooler today per areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms and associated additional cloud coverage. Highs today will continue to be seasonable warm, ranging mid to upper 80s, upper 70s to around 80 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight will continue on mild side also ranging mainly in lower 60s, mid 50s to around 60 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. With a little bit more cloud coverage expected on Thursday along with even greater potential of areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms, highs will fall back even a couple of degrees more, mainly ranging in mid 80s, upper 70s to lower 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. As for rainfall amounts today through Thursday afternoon, consensus model blend solutions continue to illustrate that only light rainfall amounts will generally be expected. Look for total rainfall amounts to range from just over a hundredth of an inch southwestern portions to around one inch western portions of Highland Rim Region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Some lingering isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across our area Thursday evening in association with upper level troughing influences shifting eastward as evening hours progress. Any additional rainfall amounts will definitely be on light of light side, generally expected to be less than a tenth of an inch. Dry conditions will prevail after midnight Thursday night through next Tuesday afternoon due to building ridging influences surface and aloft. This will provide pleasant weather, mostly clear skies, with generally low humidity levels into first work week of October. High temperatures will continue to be a few degrees above seasonal normal values, generally ranging low to mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows will generally range upper 50s to lower 60s, mid 50s Cumberland Plateau Region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Ongoing convection in Middle Tennessee is occurring exclusively east of I-65, so in the near term, only KSRB and KCSV should experience any active weather. An upper trough situated to our west will deepen while sweeping across Middle Tennessee on Thursday bringing additional showers to the region, and perhaps a storm or two during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 86 64 86 / 40 50 20 10 Clarksville 65 86 63 86 / 60 60 20 10 Crossville 57 79 58 77 / 20 30 30 10 Columbia 63 87 62 85 / 20 40 20 10 Cookeville 61 80 61 80 / 30 40 30 10 Jamestown 59 78 59 77 / 30 50 30 10 Lawrenceburg 63 85 61 84 / 10 30 20 10 Murfreesboro 64 87 62 86 / 30 40 20 10 Waverly 64 85 63 85 / 40 60 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Rose
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1134 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023
TNZ011-034-271700-
Fentress TN-Pickett TN-
1134 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PICKETT AND NORTHERN
FENTRESS COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...
At 1133 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mount Pisgah to near Jamestown. Movement
was east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3640 8476 3643 8506 3661 8489 3660 8484
3660 8479 3651 8472 3646 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 264DEG 15KT 3661 8484 3650 8495
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
RoseSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023
TNZ010-033-271700-
Overton TN-Clay TN-
1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OVERTON AND
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...
At 1141 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Celina, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3647 8528 3647 8558 3648 8560 3662 8562
3661 8550 3662 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 263DEG 15KT 3659 8553
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
RoseSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023
TNZ011-031-033-271800-
Overton TN-Pickett TN-Jackson TN-
1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OVERTON...SOUTHWESTERN
PICKETT AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...
At 1233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Celina to near Gainesboro.
Movement was east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Gainesboro, and Standing Stone State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3652 8507 3649 8509 3628 8545 3630 8547
3630 8550 3626 8551 3628 8582 3644 8554
3641 8550 3648 8546 3653 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 266DEG 15KT 3645 8548 3633 8568
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
RoseThe Nashville radar (KOHX), 44 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:52 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An AWOS station at the Murfreesboro Municipal Airport measured a 60 mph thunderstorm wind gust. At nearby Middle Tennessee State University, a tree and several branches were downed. Damages for the tree and branches are a rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1128847.