A weakening upper-level trough over the Florida Peninsula created an early start for convection as showers and storms began to develop in the morning hours over the Atlantic Ocean.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A weakening upper-level trough over the Florida Peninsula created an early start for convection as showers and storms began to develop in the morning hours over the Atlantic Ocean.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 27, 7:46 AM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 846 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 841 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 12Z sounding shows PWAT value of 2.42 inches with the column very moist through 500 mb. Cloud cover this morning is helping to keep things fairly stable, but breaks in the clouds this afternoon should help quickly de-stabilize the atmosphere. Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of high rainfall rates, and if storms pass over vulnerable poor drainage locations, some flooding will be possible. Other forecast changes this morning was to extend the high rips for Palm Beach and the coastal flood statement for the east coast through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 214 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 The unsettled and soggy weather will continue for South Florida today as deep tropical moisture remains entrenched across our area early this morning. Over the last several hours, coastal convergence along the east coast of South Florida has resulted in efficient rainfall rates and accumulated rainfall totals in a few locales in the ballpark of 2 to 4 inches. This has resulted in antecedent soil conditions that could support further localized flooding concerns with additional rounds of rainfall later today. Once again the atmospheric parameters point to this continued threat as mesoanalysis indicates the continued transport of deeper moisture in the lower levels with 850 mb convergence depicting this influx via light easterly to southeasterly winds. Taking a look aloft, 500mb flow today will remain out of a south-southwesterly direction as a mid-level trough of low pressure moves across the eastern and central United States. This will favor a convective evolution of showers and storms developing along both the Atlantic and Gulf sea- breezes late this morning into the early afternoon hours before convection drifts back towards the East coast metro areas during the evening and night-time hours. Given the ample CAPE environment and steeper lower level lapse rates, there is the potential of a few stronger pulse storms today especially along boundary collisions. PWAT's upwards of 2.0+ inches are indicative of a moist and unstable environment and with enough vertical instability, the potential for a few strong wind gusts with the strongest downbursts today are possible. Other hazards that will be in play in and around thunderstorm activity include the following: heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. As previously mentioned, there will also be a continued potential for localized flooding across the east coast metro areas today. Antecedent conditions remain fairly saturated in nature with portions of Palm Beach County picking up an additional 3-4 inches of rainfall earlier tonight. Given the water-logged soil, ensemble guidance indicates additional rainfall totals of 1-2 inches (greatest potential across the inland suburbs of the east coast metro area) with locally higher amounts possible this afternoon and evening. With the higher than normal tidal cycle due to King Tides, drainage of rainfall could be slower to drain than usual. The combination of heavy rainfall and the higher tide cycle could result in a greater concern for localized flooding along the urban areas of the east coast metro. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s across the region today before rain-cooled air acts to cool temperatures down into the low to mid 70s. A similar evolution is forecast on Thursday as deep tropical moisture remains with us. The localized flooding threat will continue into the beginning of the extended period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 214 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Unsettled weather will continue through the remainder of the week and start of the weekend. Abundant tropical moisture, from the Caribbean, will continue to stream northward between a subtropical high to our east and low in the Gulf of Mexico. PWAT values will be slightly lower, but still around 2.0-2.4 inches. With the plentiful moisture, but lack of low level synoptic forcing, sea breeze and convective outflow boundaries will play the major role in shower and storm formation across the region. The surface winds will be out of the east-southeast on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, the best chance for precipitation will be to the north of Alligator Alley, especially in Palm Beach County and interior. However, there will be, at minimum, a 60-80% chance for afternoon & evening showers and thunderstorms across all of South Florida. Due to high PWATs, saturated soils, and lighter steering flow, there is a chance for flash flooding with heavy rainfall and/or slow moving storms, especially across flood prone areas across our eastern metro corridor. Temperatures will continue to trend warm, with afternoon peak temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. In some locations, with clear skies and high dew points, heat indices have the potential to reach the low triple digits, especially in SW Florida. Around mid-weekend, there will be a change in our endless precipitation pattern with the procession of an upper level trough and surface front. The winds will shift to a north-northeasterly direction accompanied by a drop in PWATs and a slight drop in temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. With the wind shift, it may give some of the recent hardest hit areas a break with the best chance for rain in the southeast and interior of the region. QPF values are trending much lighter with potential for dry conditions mid-week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 706 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 FEW to SCT MVFR ceilings this morning with SCT showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds today will be SE 10-15 kts becoming light and VRB late tonight. SCT to NUM thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Generally light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail through mid-week as high pressure is positioned north of the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend which could result in locally hazardous marine conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 214 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm Beach County beaches through this evening with a moderate risk for the Broward County and Miami-Dade County beaches. An elevated risk of rip currents is likely to persist for the Atlantic beaches through at least late week as onshore (easterly) flow persists. Minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide cycles this week along the Atlantic coast this week due to King Tides. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the Atlantic coast of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 76 87 77 / 80 70 80 70 West Kendall 87 74 88 75 / 80 70 80 60 Opa-Locka 87 76 88 77 / 80 60 80 70 Homestead 86 75 87 76 / 70 70 80 70 Fort Lauderdale 86 76 87 77 / 80 70 80 70 N Ft Lauderdale 87 76 87 77 / 80 70 80 70 Pembroke Pines 87 75 88 77 / 80 60 80 70 West Palm Beach 86 74 86 76 / 80 70 80 70 Boca Raton 87 76 88 77 / 80 80 80 70 Naples 87 76 88 77 / 70 70 80 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....Simmons AVIATION...CMF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Miami FL 820 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 281230- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County- Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County- Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County- Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County- Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami- Dade County- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 820 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 ...Minor Coastal Flooding Possible East Coast... ...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Storms Possible Today... ...High Risk of Rip Currents for the Palm Beach County Beaches... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening may contain gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Flooding: Slow moving or training storms may lead to localized flooding. Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the east coast of South Florida during high tide cycles. Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents will persist across the Palm Beach beaches, with a moderate risk of rip currents across Broward and Miami Dade County beaches. Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible over the area waters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through the end of the work week. Localized flooding will continue to be possible each day with any concentration of showers and thunderstorms over the same areas. There will be the continued potential of minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast of South Florida through late week, especially during periods of high tide. An elevated risk of rip currents will likely persist along the east coast of South Florida over the next several days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 142 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:00 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
An emergency manager reported a brief funnel cloud over Highway A1A in Jupiter as a shower passed through the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1141622.