After morning convection pushed east of the region the airmass gradually destabilized across the Mid-South due to surface heating. Meanwhile, an upper low moved slowly eastward across the Southern Plains toward the Mid-South during the afternoon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
After morning convection pushed east of the region the airmass gradually destabilized across the Mid-South due to surface heating. Meanwhile, an upper low moved slowly eastward across the Southern Plains toward the Mid-South during the afternoon. The encroaching upper low combined with increasing instability produced numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South by late afternoon. Storms continued to move across the area through the mid-evening hours. There were a few severe weather reports of large hail and damaging wind.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 5:08 PM CST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 608 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Strong to severe storms are expected to develop this evening. Damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and a few tornadoes are possible. The window for severe weather looks to be from 5PM through midnight for our forecast area. An upper low will stall over the Tennessee Valley through mid to late week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect areas along and east of the Mississippi River. Slightly cooler than normal high temperatures will prevail over the Midsouth through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 A tough forecast for the next several hours across the Mid South. We are still anticipating strong to severe storms to develop across the area this evening. This is a shaky confidence but high ceiling type forecast for the region. All short range guidance still points to storms developing after 5 PM this evening lasting through midnight across the area. This particular round looks to be more cellular than linear and that could increase the hail threat and the tornado threat. SPC still maintains mostly a slight risk for the area with a small portion of the southern areas of the CWA in an enhanced risk. The good news is this should be the last of the severe weather for the next several days as this active pattern comes to an end. Next week an upper low will cut off and deepen over the Midwest and drift south through mid week. This would be a trigger for a few showers and storms, but nothing severe. Slightly cooler temperatures expected next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Round 2 of convection is set to begin near 00z and brief periods of low VSBYs and TSRA are expected. After the system moves through some low CIGS producing IFR conditions are likely. By mid morning tomorrow, the low cloud deck should scatter out back to VFR. A few models showed some scattered showers on the back side of the system late tomorrow morning, but coverage and confidence were too low to include precip in the TAFs tomorrow. Winds may gust as this second round moves through, but will slow generally around 4kts overnight. Some BR may occur within the low CIGS and abundant moisture, but should not lower VSBYs below 2sm. Winds will jump back with diurnal trends tomorrow with some potential for gusty conditions tomorrow afternoon with a gradual shift to the west and eventually northwest. DNM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...MJH AVIATION...DNM
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
608 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0544 PM Hail Beech Grove 36.17N 90.62W
06/18/2023 E1.25 inch Greene AR Public
Public reports image of hail in Beech Grove.
Time is radar estimated.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
627 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0544 PM Hail Beech Grove 36.17N 90.62W
06/18/2023 E1.75 inch Greene AR Public
Corrects previous hail report from Beech
Grove. Public reports image of hail in Beech
Grove. Time is radar estimated.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
922 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023
MSZ003-004-TNZ089-090-190300-
Tippah MS-Benton MS-Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-
922 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Tippah,
northern Benton, southeastern Fayette and southern Hardeman Counties
through 1000 PM CDT...
At 922 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lagrange, or 17 miles southwest of Bolivar, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Canaan, Lagrange, Michigan City, Walnut, Middleton, Grand Junction,
La Grange, Hickory Valley, Saulsbury, Rogers Springs, Brody, Lisbon,
New Canaan, Hebron, Hamilton, Van Buren and Ghost River State Natural
Area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northeastern
Mississippi...and west Tennessee.
&&
LAT...LON 3489 8894 3496 8935 3497 8935 3515 8926
3518 8886
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 269DEG 25KT 3507 8922
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MJThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:22 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree limbs and power poles were broken south of LaGrange.
A few trees were uprooted and a few large limbs were knocked down near the intersection of Indian Creek Road and Holder Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1119163, 1116410.