An closed upper low moving through a southern jet stream produced several waves of strong to severe thunderstorms over Central Alabama.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BMX wrote it up.
An closed upper low moving through a southern jet stream produced several waves of strong to severe thunderstorms over Central Alabama.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 12:59 AM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 159 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 859 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2023 A tricky forecast through Sunday night in store for Central Alabama. There will be some changes in communication regarding the activity through Sunday night. To start off, the convection has diminished early this evening and fair skies dominate. Due to high near surface moisture, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Added a mention of local visibilities below mile at times. The big challenge of communication and potential outcomes will be the severe thunderstorms possible late tonight through Sunday night. Model consensus has a convectively enhanced short wave moving west to east late tonight. There are some models that have convection near the Alabama/Mississippi state line before 12z. If the instability and shear can effectively overlap and interact with the lift, severe storms are possible. The evolution of this wave overnight temporally and spatially will impact events the remainder of the day. At this time, will add mention of severe storms with the threat of damaging winds and large hail potentially starting before sunrise. The area of highest concern here is the southwest. Of note, the more organized the thunderstorms become, the faster they may propagate toward us. Another wave follows fairly closely behind the first wave. This also comes across during the heating of the day. Effective Bulk Shear is certainly higher over the area at this time with some thunderstorm redevelopment possible. Instabilities will be impacted be the clouds, rain cooled zone, or lack thereof. Severe storms will be possible in the afternoon. A more potent short wave trough moves in Sunday night. Once again, timing is an issue with a spread of several hours amongst model guidance. It appears that the instability and moisture content remain very high. Unseasonably high shear also moves in again at this time. Therefore, severe thunderstorms are again possible Sunday night. The parameters are the most conducive to severe thunderstorms Sunday night but this may change due to how the atmosphere reacts to the storms earlier in the day. Be prepared for severe weather into Sunday. Be prepared for some potential changes in the timing and/or placement of storms. And be prepared for the potential of an upgrade in risk. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats throughout. 75 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2023 Monday. The pattern aloft will begin to transition on Monday. Guidance is in agreement that a couple of shortwave perturbations will become cutoff from the westerlies as they move east into a broad trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the overall upper-level flow will become more amplified with a deep-layer ridge building across the Plains. Our flow aloft will become more northwesterly as the shortwave begins to stall across the TN and OH Valleys, along with a weak surface low just to our northwest. 500 mb flow will remain ~30 kts, providing enough shear to foster a few strong/severe thunderstorms given the progged <3,000 J/kg MLCAPE on various GFS/ECMWF forecast soundings. We'll advertise a "marginal risk" for severe thunderstorms on Monday, though exact placement and timing is not perfectly clear just yet. Generally speaking, best convective coverage should remain along/east of I-65, in the downstream section of the low. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the threats, like a broken record. Tuesday through Friday. The upper-level low is progged to meander across the Southeast for the remainder of the long-term forecast period. Guidance generally agrees that it should wobble to the southwest. If so, its positioning would result in weak flow aloft across Central Alabama, mercifully eliminating the risk for organized severe weather. However, there will be sufficient moisture and instability around each afternoon to foster scattered, to occasionally numerous, showers and thunderstorms. We could even have convection on each side of the state moving in opposite directions. It would be nonsense to completely rule out a strong storm through the end of the period considering the upper-low in the region which would help cool temperatures aloft (and the fact that guidance will change) - but this could hopefully be the end to a long-stretched period of 'anomalous' severe weather across the Deep South. We'll keep our fingers crossed here. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2023 We are currently in a lull in the convective activity. During that lull, we are expecting some MVFR, IFR and below cigs/vsbys to develop. Best chances for low cigs/vsbys will be at MGM/TOI. Lesser chance at TCL. With less rainfall on Sat, we have a tad less residual moisture. Next, two waves of TSRA activity are expected for this forecast. The first wave is currently across OK/AR and should affect C AL this afternoon. Then after a break, a second wave is expected to move into the W (TCL) during Sun evening and push ESE-WD across C AL during the overnight hours Sun night into Mon. While both could have strong to severe storms, the wave moving in toward the end of the TAF period may be significant in regards to wind/hail. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day through the forecast period, with varying daily coverage. Minimum RH values each afternoon will remain above critical thresholds, generally staying above 40-50 percent. 20 ft winds becoming southwest on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 90 67 83 67 / 40 80 90 50 Anniston 90 69 84 69 / 40 80 90 60 Birmingham 91 70 85 70 / 50 80 80 40 Tuscaloosa 88 70 87 70 / 60 80 80 30 Calera 89 70 85 70 / 40 80 80 40 Auburn 87 69 81 70 / 40 80 90 60 Montgomery 89 70 85 70 / 40 80 90 60 Troy 89 70 86 70 / 40 70 90 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....40/Sizemore AVIATION...08
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Birmingham AL 758 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 ALZ011>015-017>050-190400- Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee- Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega- Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa- Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon- Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour- 758 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the National Weather Service office in Birmingham. .DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight. Fog may develop overnight in south central Alabama. Visibilities may drop below 1 mile at times. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Severe thunderstorms are possible early Sunday through Sunday night for much of Central Alabama. Multiple waves of thunderstorms are possible. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall could produce flooding. A few severe thunderstorms are possible across Central Alabama on Monday. Threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall could produce flooding. River flooding is forecast to begin early Sunday along the Sucarnoochee River near Livingston and continue through Friday. Please refer to river products for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed through Monday.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
231 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0559 PM Hail Ethelsville 33.41N 88.21W
06/16/2023 E2.75 inch Pickens AL Public
Social media video of large hail falling in
Ethelsville. There were numerous large
stones which appear to be tennis to baseball
size.
&&
ASThe Maxwell AFB radar (KMXX), 50 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:27 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind, 2 lightning, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Lightning caused a house fire on County Road 79. The home was a total loss.
Trees uprooted along Highway 14 in Aliceville. Numerous trees uprooted across the southern portion of the county.
Trees uprooted and power lines downed along Mars Hill Road.
A house sustained significant damage from a lightning strike. Two automobiles were heavily damaged.
Several trees uprooted along Highway 43 south of Linden. Numerous reports of uprooted trees across southern portion of the county.
A bow echo uprooted numerous trees across the southern half of the county.
Several trees uprooted along County Road 4 west of Panola.
A long-lived bow echo uprooted numerous trees in Goshen.
Peak gust of 61 mph reported at the ASOS at the Troy Municipal Airport.
A long-lived bow echo uprooted numerous trees in Troy and Spring Hill.
A weakening long-lived bow echo uprooted a few trees along Highway 51 southwest of Clio.
Radar estimated rainfall amounts of 3-4 inches over northern Macon County during the evening hours. County Road 57 flooded and impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1114686, 1114679, 1114680, 1114688, 1114693, 1114702, 1114708, 1114722, 1114723, 1114730, 1114732, 1114769.