Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over Middle Tennessee on July 13, 2023 and into the early morning hours of July 14th. One of these thunderstorms in southeast Wilson County produced locally heavy rainfall, causing minor flooding in the Watertown area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over Middle Tennessee on July 13, 2023 and into the early morning hours of July 14th. One of these thunderstorms in southeast Wilson County produced locally heavy rainfall, causing minor flooding in the Watertown area. Elsewhere, a lightning strike struck a gas line in west Brentwood.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 6:13 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 713 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 709 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Latest radar imagery shows little activity across Middle Tennessee this evening with just a few tiny showers in Davidson and Williamson Counties, along with a few showers and storms west and east of our forecast area. Newest HRRR runs are very aggressive in developing widespread showers and storms this evening, but this seems unreasonable based on radar and the latest visible satellite imagery showing sparse cumulus. Therefore have lowered pops significantly for the evening and overnight periods to just slight to low chance. Rest of forecast remains on track with a warm and very humid night on tap. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Satellite shows a few weak outflow boundaries throughout the area and we are seeing a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms but overall the radar is quiet. These outflow boundaries don't have a ton of lift with them and the cloud cover today has helped to limit convection. We still could see a few cells go up this afternoon into the evening. We will also see scattered thunderstorms develop along a cold front/stationary front to our north. These will push south this evening and some could reach our area but once again forcing doesn't look great with it. Soundings are not overly impressive and shear is on the low side. This will limit strong storm potential but still can't rule out gusty winds and heavy rain with any of the stronger looking cells. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into the overnight but it will be mainly dry, humid, and mild. Upper level pattern Friday will be zonal over us with a strong upper level low digging over Canada. This will provide little lift for us but a decaying thunderstorm complex to our west will push east in the afternoon and evening and should provide some lift for scattered thunderstorms. Once again it's uncertain how much lift it will provide. Soundings tomorrow will be similar to today, not overly impressive with marginal lapse rates and shear. Still can't rule out isolated stronger cells with a wind and heavy rain threat. The thunderstorm threat may linger into the overnight mainly over the plateau. Cloud cover has held temps down some today and that could be an issue again tomorrow but nevertheless we will still be looking at heat index values well into the 90s given the dew points. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Saturday we are looking to be under an upper-level trough with significant rain chances Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Max ensemble precipitation values for early Saturday go up to 0.2 inches with moderate CAPE giving way to the possibility of a couple of strong storms with gusty winds and heavy showers. There is some disagreement for Saturday evening showers, though most model QPFs are lighter. The biggest talking point of next week will be the rising heat as an upper-level ridge builds over the central plains and starts moving towards the east. We will get a small drop in dewpoints for Monday with dry air aloft. We start the week with lows in mid 70s and highs in the mid 90s which steadily climb to the upper 90s by the mid-week according to the NBM. There is another synoptic low pressure system over in Northwestern Canada that will begin to flatten the ridge pattern overhead around Wednesday allowing for more short waves to predominate the upper level flow. This will give us forcing to provide "popcorn" showers and thunderstorms late next week. With significant day-time heating and dewpoints in the 60s-70s, models show that there might be enough instability mid-week for some stronger storms to pop-up with gusty winds and localized downpours. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 VFR conditions expected for the most part. High resolution models are hinting at some lower VIS and CIGs especially for the plateau and near the river at CKV towards the morning hours. At this time will go with MVFR...however if the models are correct this could go down to IFR around sunrise and just afterwards. During the next few hours the showers and thunderstorms in southern KY should continue to dissipate. Have removed the VCTS and TSRA from CSV and SRB. Will keep an eye on this just in case. Otherwise some high clouds expected with westerly winds 10 kts or less through the TAF period. The plateau could see some mid level CU tomorrow afternoon. Not expecting and TSRA in or around the TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 75 94 74 90 / 30 20 60 80 Clarksville 73 95 73 90 / 20 20 60 80 Crossville 68 85 67 82 / 30 20 60 90 Columbia 73 92 73 90 / 30 30 50 80 Cookeville 70 88 70 84 / 30 20 60 90 Jamestown 69 85 68 82 / 30 20 60 90 Lawrenceburg 73 90 72 89 / 30 30 50 80 Murfreesboro 73 93 72 90 / 30 20 50 80 Waverly 72 92 71 89 / 30 30 60 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....12
The Nashville radar (KOHX), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:18 UTC.
1 lightning, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Nashville emergency manager reported that a gas line was struck by lightning along Old Hickory Boulevard in west Brentwood. The fire department was called to the scene, but extent of damages is unknown.
Heavy rain near Watertown, southeast of Lebanon, caused minor flooding in the area. Flooding began in the Shop Springs area with several roads in the area closed. The heavy rain and flooding then flowed northward closer to I-40, forcing the closure of Bluebird Road at Tuckers Crossroads. No damages are known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1100327, 1100323.