Flood in Tennessee, August 27, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
650 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Today, for the first time in a week, our high temperature in
Nashville should stay below 90 degrees. Cloud cover and passing
storms and showers will keep highs in the low 80s across most of
the area. The ongoing activity in west Tennessee may bleed into
our western counties throughout the morning hours, but most of our
showers and storms will develop later today as an upper shortwave
pushes southeast into the Tennessee Valley. Surface instability
won't be quite what it was yesterday, but it will still be enough
to support storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. PWATS are
expected to be above 2 inches for much of the day and storm
motions may be quite slow, so any storms will be efficient rainers
and could cause localized flooding issues. The main timing for
the threat of gusty winds and heavy rain will be in the afternoon
to evening hours.

Mild temperatures will continue into Monday and we'll likely see
some showers persist over our southeastern half through much of
the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

The band of moisture to our southeast will remain there into
Wednesday morning, so expect additional showers and low to mid 80
highs through Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday should start to dry out
for those in the southeast portion of Middle TN as the upper
trough axis sweeps through the TN Valley and off to the east.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Ten is forecast to move into the
Southeast U.S. It's current forecast track is somewhere over the
Florida panhandle and across portions of GA, so we aren't
expecting any direct impacts. Our in house blend of models did
want to include some small precip chances for Thursday and Friday.
In the event that the system hedges a little farther north, I
kept that small mention of showers and storms for now. As the
tropical system moves off to the east, high pressure will be
building over the central U.S. Our high temperatures will start to
climb back into the 90s to start the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Continuing theme of 28/06Z TAF issuance here at
28/12Z, per continued support of latest CAMs trends/forecast
reasoning, mentioned two hour overall best window for tstms with
associated sfc gusts to 30kts, 35-40kts SRB/CSV, thru 28/12Z now.
VCSH continues to be mentioned around these times. Emphasizing
once again that tstms could occur outside these times. To point
out best potential tstms 28/06Z-28/12Z, mentioned VCTS. Still
believe majority ceilings VFR/but some MVFR possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  70  85  68 /  80  50  40  30
Clarksville    79  68  85  64 /  80  30  10  10
Crossville     83  66  77  64 /  60  50  50  50
Columbia       84  69  82  68 /  80  60  40  30
Cookeville     84  68  80  67 /  60  60  40  40
Jamestown      82  66  78  65 /  50  50  50  40
Lawrenceburg   86  69  82  67 /  80  60  40  40
Murfreesboro   87  69  84  68 /  70  60  40  30
Waverly        78  66  84  64 /  90  40  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Whitehead
LONG TERM....Whitehead
AVIATION.....JB Wright