Flash Flooding in Kentucky, August 27, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
211 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

A mid-level disturbance will slip south and east across the Quad
State today. As it does so it will encounter a moisture-laden air
mass with precipitable water values around 2.25". Forcing
associated with the disturbance and the copious moisture will
combine to produce widespread showers and a few thunderstorms.
Low-level and mid-level lapse rates are weak and cloud cover will
severely limit heating across the region today. Therefore,
instability will be lacking for any robust thunderstorms. However,
the showers should be prolific rain-producers and WPC's QPF
through early this evening has roughly 1-3" over the southwest
half of the region. The high end may be a bit high given the lack
of instability, but 1-2" will be a good bet over much of that
region.

As for the details, the area of showers near the confluence of the
Ohio and Mississippi as of 07Z will rotate north into southern
Illinois through daybreak, as another area near the STL Metro
rotates southward. All of the activity will then push southeast
out of the region this afternoon and early evening. There will be
a northeast edge to the rainshie143ld today, but not real
confident in where that will be. At this time, it looks like areas
along and north of I-64 should remain dry, but most of the Tri
State area could remain dry as well. The heaviest rain will be
over far southeast Missouri.

Weak northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will then keep
the region dry and much cooler tonight through Tuesday night.
Highs will mostly be in the lower 80s today through Tuesday, and
lows will start out near normal tonight and then drop well below
normal for Monday night and Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday
morning will be in the upper 50s over much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

The forecast from Wednesday through next Sunday is dry.

The combination of surface high pressure and weak northwest flow
aloft will keep the area cooler than normal with relatively low
humidity through Thursday. The 00Z guidance is in good agreement
in keeping a tropical system well southeast of the Quad State, but
its closest proximity Wednesday and Thursday could lead to some
enhanced northeasterly winds, especially over west Kentucky.

High pressure aloft will build over the Quad State heading into
next weekend, and winds will become southerly on Saturday. The
combination of subsidence under the building ridge and increasing
low-level moisture will lead to a significant uptick in heat and
humidity as we go through next weekend. Temperatures should reach
normal levels Saturday and climb into the lower 90s by next
Sunday. At this time, it appears that heat indices Sunday will
remain below 100 degrees. Although it will feel quite hot, it will
be well below the disgusting conditions of the past week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Showers and a few storms will continue to be commonplace across
southeast MO, southern IL and west KY through a good chunk of this
period. After about 09Z, KMVN, KOWB and KEVV should be north of the
main area of rain. Low cigs will be most likely over southeast MO
and possibly far west KY, although ongoing convection has lowered
them at KMVN attm. There will be pockets of heavier rain from time
to time overnight which will also lower cigs and vsbys in other
locations. If MVFR cigs become established over parts of southeast
MO and west KY, it will likely be early afternoon before they rise
to VFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...CW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
216 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
216 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 /316 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms over much of
southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and west Kentucky today
will bring the potential for heavy rainfall and some isolated flash
flooding. The heaviest rains will be over far southeast Missouri
this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of any heavy rainfall and flooding would be greatly
appreciated today.

DRS