Tennessee, 2023

Excessive Heat and Heat in Tennessee, August 22 to 26, 2023

August 22 to 26, 2023 · NWS HUN · 5 events in 3 counties and zones

Heat index values reached 105 to 109 degrees on successive afternoons. On the 24th and 25th, the heat index peaked at 110 degrees in Lincoln County.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HUN wrote it up.

Heat index values reached 105 to 109 degrees on successive afternoons. On the 24th and 25th, the heat index peaked at 110 degrees in Lincoln County.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Huntsville, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 22, 11:07 AM CST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 22, 11:07 AM CST, 2 hours 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1207 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 943 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Current conditions are on par for another muggy hot day across the
Tennessee Valley. Temperatures are are hovering around 80 degrees as
they make the climb into the mid 90s by this afternoon. Dew points
are our main conflict today as they will drive our heat index. With
current dew points in the mid to high 70s the only slight change to
the forecast was reducing daytime dew points by a few degrees to keep
them in the mid 70s. This will limit our heat index to max out right
around 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Clear/calm conditions will allow temperatures to drop off during
the evening and overnight hours -- though it may still feel
uncomfortable even overnight as low temperatures will bottom out
in the low to mid 70s in most locations. We may need to extend
the Heat Advisory overnight to cover impacts overnight in future
forecast updates. Another hot/humid day is expected across the
Tennessee Valley on Wednesday as the upper-ridge really begins to
flex its muscles. This will place high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s by the afternoon hours. Guidance is hinting at slightly
lower dewpoints on Wednesday, which will keep our peak heat index
values in the 105-109 range (Advisory levels) across most of the
region. In fact, the spatial area of where we actually hit
criteria may be a little smaller in the Plateau region (DeKalb,
AL and Franklin, TN) with dewpoints running closer to 70 degrees.
This would keep peak heat index values below the 105 degree
Advisory threshold in our far eastern counties.

The heatwave will peak Thursday/Friday as the upper-ridge and its
associated "heat dome" settles over the Tennessee Valley. It's
possible we see the warmest temperatures of the summer, with both
HSV/MSL progged to reach or exceed the 100 degree mark both days
and mid to upper 90s expected across the rest of the area. At bare
minimum, Heat Advisories seem probable during this timeframe and
its possible that an Excessive Heat Warning may be needed for
portions of northwest/north central Alabama if dewpoints trend a
little bit higher.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

The upper level ridge will begin to flatten by Friday night in
response to an upper shortwave moving over the Great Lakes region.
This shortwave eventually deepens into a trough over the eastern
CONUS into early next week, with another impulse moving along the
main flow towards the region by early next week. At the surface, a
cold front is forecast to traverse southward over the Tennessee
Valley from Friday night through Saturday. This surface boundary will
slowly make its way towards the northern Gulf coast, with surface
high pressure building in over the Ohio Valley to the north. An
inverted trough looks to then form by early next week over the
Southeast and up into the lower Ohio Valley.

Overall, model guidance is pessimistic with precipitation chances
associated with the cold front into Saturday. However, with
sufficient instability and moisture, maintained low chances (~15%)
of showers and perhaps a couple storms through the day on Saturday as
the front moves over the area. Sunday is expected to remain dry
however, as the aforementioned upper shortwave moves into the
Tennessee Valley region and inverted trough feature sets up at the
surface on Monday, low chances (15-30%) for showers and storms
returns to the area. Model bulk shear values are fairly meager for
Monday; thus, not anticipating severe weather at this point.

The good news is that a gradual cool down in temperatures is
forecast through the period. Highs start out in the 90s on Saturday
but by Monday are expected to merely top out in the 80s. We will
need to monitor model trends with regards to high temperatures and
moisture levels on Saturday, as our current forecast shows heat
indices for some areas generally along and west of I-65 reaching at
or below 105 degrees (on the cusp of Heat Advisory criteria).
However, the caveat will be cloud cover and precipitation chances
which may dampen the heat. Otherwise, low temperatures will follow a
similar decreasing pattern, beginning in the lower to mid 70s Friday
night then by Sunday night ranging in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast through most of the
period. Patchy river valley fog is possible from 09-12Z when a few
locations could drop to 3-5SM (MVFR).

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...17

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 22, 11:19 AM CST, 2 hours 41 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1219 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Extreme Heat     3 ENE Madison           34.72N 86.70W
08/21/2023  M102 F           Madison            AL   Broadcast Media

            *** 4 INJ ***
            Four high school football players
            experienced heat illness during a Monday
            afternoon practice. Two of the players were
            taken to the hospital for treatment. The
            other two were treated at the scene. None of
            the injuries were life-threatening and all
            have recovered.

&&

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 heat, 2 excessive heat. Local standard time, as filed.

Heat, Lincoln

When
August 22, 2:00 PM CST to August 26, 3:00 PM CST
Where
Lincoln forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS
Coordinates
35.141, -86.589 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heat index values reached 105 to 109 degrees during the peak heating hours, with overnight lows in the 70s.

Heat, Moore

When
August 22, 2:00 PM CST to August 26, 3:00 PM CST
Where
Moore forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS
Coordinates
35.285, -86.359 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heat index values reached 105 to 109 degrees during the peak heating hours, with overnight lows in the 70s.

Heat, Franklin

When
August 22, 2:00 PM CST to August 26, 3:00 PM CST
Where
Franklin forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS
Coordinates
35.155, -86.092 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heat index values reached 105 to 109 degrees during the peak heating hours, with overnight lows in the 70s.

Excessive Heat, Lincoln

When
August 24, 1:00 PM CST to 4:00 PM CST
Where
Lincoln forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS
Coordinates
35.141, -86.589 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The heat index peaked at 110 degrees during the mid afternoon hours.

Excessive Heat, Lincoln

When
August 25, 3:00 PM CST to 5:00 PM CST
Where
Lincoln forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS
Coordinates
35.141, -86.589 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The heat index peaked at 110 degrees during the mid afternoon hours.

What these are

Heat
Heat below excessive heat criteria that still caused deaths, injuries or significant impacts.
Excessive Heat
Heat at or above the local excessive heat warning criteria, or heat that caused deaths.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, August 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1131933, 1131934, 1131935, 1131937, 1131940.