Lack of persistent rain, dry to very dry conditions and very hot temperatures allowed Extreme (D3) Drought to develop across most of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties. Severe (D2) Drought expanded across much of the Rio Grande Valley and Brush Country and Brooks/Kenedy Ranches on August 22nd.
Every event with a place to put it; 11 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Lack of persistent rain, dry to very dry conditions and very hot temperatures allowed Extreme (D3) Drought to develop across most of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties. Severe (D2) Drought expanded across much of the Rio Grande Valley and Brush Country and Brooks/Kenedy Ranches on August 22nd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 21, 11:51 PM CST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1251 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023
Weather impacts in the short-term will be driven by newly formed
Tropical Depression Nine. ASCAT passes and aircraft recon have
recently found a closed circulation, with the intensity set at 30
knots. TD-9 is forecast to make landfall as a 40-45 knot tropical
storm along the Kenedy/Willacy county coast tomorrow morning. Due
to its broad structure and quick forward speed (currently moving
westward at 18mph), rapid intensification appears unlikely. While
the strongest winds will be on the north side of the center, the
most recent track has nudged south a bit, potentially bringing a
brief period of 40-50mph gusts to northern Kenedy county Tuesday
morning. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for all of the
barrier islands and coastal zones, along with inland Willacy and
Kenedy counties.
The main impact expected from TD-9 continues to be potentially
heavy rainfall, though much of this rain will be welcome. WPC has
delineated a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall through early
tomorrow morning, mainly for areas east of I-69C/Highway 281.
Heavier rainbands should begin moving ashore around midnight, and
progress inland with time. For Tuesday, WPC has placed a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over the entire area. If you encounter
flooded roadways...turn around, don't drown! There could be a
relatively tight gradient in the rainfall totals, with confidence
increasing that the bulk of the heaviest rainfall will pass north
of the Lower RGV. Still advertising up to 2 inches of rainfall for
the mid/Lower RGV, with 2-4 inches across the northern Ranchlands.
Isolated totals of 5-6 inches through Tuesday evening cannot be
ruled out. Isolated tornadoes in mini-supercell structures are
also possible across the northern Ranchlands in the right-front
quadrant of the circulation of TD-9.
Temps are tricky for tomorrow, but should be lower than they have
been for some time for most of the area, depending where main
precip shield/banding sets up. May not top 90F west of
I-69C/Highway 281. Brownsville/Harlingen metro could still rebound
to the lower-mid 90s if some sun can break out Tuesday afternoon,
as ridging aloft will already be nosing back into the region
toward evening. Residual moisture allows for scattered precip
Tuesday night, though amounts to be much lighter, in general.
Hazardous beach conditions are in store from tonight through
Tuesday as well, with a High Risk of Rip Currents, High Surf
Advisory, and Coastal Flood Advisory all in effect from 7PM this
evening through 7PM Tuesday. Local guidance suggests water level at
Brazos Santiago pass may exceed 2.5 ft. MHHW, with the added
swell energy from TD-9. Since the background astronomical tides
are rather low, most impactful time would be a few hours either
side of high tide early tomorrow morning, occurring at 5:38am
CDT. This is also roughly the time when the center of TD-9
approaches the Willacy/Kenedy County coast. The worst coastal
flooding should be north of the landfall point along Padre Island
National Seashore. After landfall, winds quickly re-acquire a
southerly component, which should reduce the coastal flooding
threat relatively quickly later on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023
Long-term period appears to be relatively quiet. On Wednesday,
with the center of the H5 high lying across the Red River valley,
the atmospheric column continues drying from east-to-west, though
there should be sufficient moisture for a few residual rain
showers. As winds go slack early Thursday morning, patchy fog
could develop inland in spots that pick up significant rainfall
from TD-9. A weak inverted trough is progged by the GFS pass to
our south on Friday (a bit closer in the ECMWF), which should be
enough for isolated sea-breeze convection. Max heat indices may
approach advisory criteria, as temps march back to near- or
slightly above normal levels. Heading into the weekend, the H5
high center again takes up residence near the Four Corners region,
though with an axis extending back toward Texas. Rain likely to
be sparse, though isolated sea-breeze showers may occur again
Sunday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Conditions are expected to deteriorate in the advance of Tropical
Depression 9 as showers and thunderstorms are expected to arrive
in the area. Mostly expecting MVFR conditions for most of the
period, however periods of IFR are likely during periods of heavy
downpours. Timing of possible rain bands is tricky with this
system. If there are noticeable changes in the track of Tropical
Depression 9 amendments of TAFs will be needed. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon, but
conditions will generally start to improve.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023
Now through Sunday...
Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico
and is forecast to make landfall as a tropical storm in the
general vicinity of Port Mansfield on Tuesday morning. Tropical
Storm Warnings remain in effect for all of the Lower Texas coastal
waters. Wind gusts on the northern Laguna Madre may reach 45
knots, with very rough bad conditions. Gulf waters north of Pt.
Mansfield could see gusts briefly up to 50-55 kt on Tuesday, with
seas of 6-11 ft. Small Craft Advisories, at least on the Gulf, are
likely to follow up the Tropical Storm Warning for Tuesday night,
as seas are likely to remain agitated.
Boating conditions will deteriorate tonight into Tuesday morning
across the coastal waters due to the approach of TD-9. Strong
gusty winds, high seas, widespread showers and thunderstorms, and
isolated waterspouts will prevail into Tuesday afternoon.
Gradually improving, though still hazardous, conditions are
expected by Tuesday evening, with the trend continuing through
Wednesday. Modest surface high pressure takes hold over the Gulf
from Thursday onward, leading to more favorable conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 92 79 93 78 / 50 50 50 20
HARLINGEN 92 76 94 74 / 80 50 50 10
MCALLEN 91 78 95 76 / 90 50 50 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 87 77 93 76 / 90 50 50 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 87 80 / 50 50 40 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 79 92 77 / 60 50 40 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ250-251-254-351-353>355-451-454-
455.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-
454-455.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&
SHORT TERM...53-Schroeder
LONG TERM....53-Schroeder
AVIATION...64-KatzHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1120 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-230430- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island- Cameron Island- 1120 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Tropical Storm Warnings, in association with Tropical Depression Nine, have been issued for all of the barrier island and coastal zones, along with inland Willacy and Kenedy counties and Northern Hidalgo and Brooks Counties. Refer to the Hurricane Local Statement for detailed information. Tropical Depression Nine will bring the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding, especially in urban areas, mainly after midnight tonight and east of I-69C/Highway 281. Isolated tornadoes are possible in Kenedy County after midnight. A High Surf Advisory is in effect starting at 7 PM this evening for Kenedy Island, Willacy Island, and Cameron Island for large breaking waves up to 7 feet in the surf zone. A High Rip Current Risk is is in effect starting at 7 PM this evening for Kenedy Island, Willacy Island, and Cameron Island. A Coastal Flood Advisory is is in effect starting at 7 PM this evening for Kenedy Island, Willacy Island, and Cameron Island. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Tropical Storm Warnings continue for Tuesday for all of the barrier island and coastal zones, along with inland Willacy and Kenedy counties. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding may continue on Tuesday, with a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the entire area. Isolated tornadoes are possible across the northern Ranchlands on Tuesday. A High Risk of Rip Currents may continue into Wednesday. A heat advisory may be needed for the eastern counties of Deep South Texas on Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should report any hazardous weather to the National Weather Service in Brownsville when it is safe to do so. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-230430- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 1120 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for all of the Lower Texas coastal waters. Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and waves, lower visibility, brief downpours, lightning strikes and waterspouts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Tropical Storm Warnings continue through Tuesday for all of the Lower Texas coastal waters. Showers and thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and waves, lower visibility, brief downpours, lightning strikes and waterspouts on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Mariners should report any hazardous weather to the National Weather Service in Brownsville if it is safe to do so.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
11 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Extreme (D3) Drought to develop across all but the southern tip of Zapata County on August 22nd.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Extreme (D3) Drought to develop across western Jim Hogg County on August 22nd. While Tropical Storm Harold brought some much needed rain August 22nd, it wasn't enough to keep it from persisting the rest of the month.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across Brooks County on August 22nd. While Tropical Storm Harold brought some much needed rain August 22nd, it wasn't enough to keep it from persisting the rest of the month across the southwestern third of the county. Conditions improved to D1 elsewhere due to the 1.5 to nearly 3 inches of rain that fell with Harold.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across southern Cameron County from a line extending from 2 miles south of Santa Rosa, through Harlingen, to 3 miles north of Bayview on August 22nd. While Tropical Storm Harold a little bit of rain on August 22nd, it wasn't enough to keep it from persisting the rest of the month.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across southern Cameron County from a line extending from 3 miles north of Bayview to 3 miles north of Laguna Vista on August 22nd. While Tropical Storm Harold a little bit of rain on August 22nd, it wasn't enough to keep it from persisting the rest of the month.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across southern 3 miles of Cameron Island on August 22nd. While Tropical Storm Harold a little bit of rain on August 22nd, it wasn't enough to keep it from persisting the rest of the month.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across most of southern Hidalgo County on August 22nd except the northeastern portion of the zone extending 6 miles west of the Hidalgo/Willacy County line near Hargil and 7 miles south of the Cameron/Willacy/Hidalgo County line. While Tropical Storm Harold a little bit of rain on August 22nd, it wasn't enough to keep it from persisting the rest of the month.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across the western two-thirds of northern Hidalgo County on August 22nd except the eastern portion of the zone extending 6 miles west of the Hidalgo/Willacy County line near Hargill north to 1.5 miles west of the Jim Hogg/Kenedy/Hidalgo County line. While Tropical Storm Harold a little bit of rain on August 22nd, which did improve portions of this zone.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across the northern half of Inland Kenedy County on August 22nd, or about 4 miles north of Armstrong. Tropical Storm Harold brought some beneficial rain to the area on August 22nd and allowed Severe (D2) Drough to only last a week this instance.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across the northern half of Coastal Kenedy County on August 22nd, or about the northern 18 miles of the zone. Tropical Storm Harold brought some beneficial rain to the area on August 22nd and allowed Severe (D2) Drought to only last a week this instance.
Lack of persistent rain and hot to very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across the northern half of Kenedy Island on August 22nd, or about the northern 18 miles of the zone. Tropical Storm Harold brought some beneficial rain to the area on August 22nd and allowed Severe (D2) Drought to only last a week this instance.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1121542, 1121543, 1121544, 1121545, 1121546, 1121547, 1121548, 1121549, 1121550, 1121551, 1121552.