Hail in South Dakota, June 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
101 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

The latest water vapor images and 500-mb height analysis show an
upper low over southwestern MT/northeastern ID with a trough in
the West and flat ridge across the central CONUS. A low also was
over central Canada. This pattern was producing west-to-southwest
flow aloft across the CWA. A subtle short-wave trough was east of
the CWA, and another diffuse short-wave trough was over the
central Rockies and moving toward the CWA. However, the Q-G
forcing was downward across the CWA given somewhat confluent upper
flow behind the departing short-wave trough. The visible and DCP
satellite products showed cumulus development over northeastern
WY, with cumulus congestus over the BLKHLS. The SPC mesoanalysis
had 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the CWA, with still some
substantial MLCIN across SD. This is consistent with the very
slightly drier northerly surface flow. Given the weak forcing and
MLCIN, any convective initiation will be tied to terrain and
subtle surface boundaries. CAMs struggle in these weak-forcing
scenarios, but confidence is fairly high in storms forming
near/around the BLKHLS. Given 0-6km bulk wind shear of 30-40 kt,
there should be some organized storms (i.e., supercells) with at
least a marginal severe weather threat this afternoon and early-
to-mid evening.

Beyond tonight, models/ensembles agree well on the western CONUS
low/trough slowly moving to near Kansas City by late Saturday. This
pattern will foster unsettled weather and some severe thunderstorms,
especially across the southern portions of the CWA. Given the recent
rains, relatively high streamflow, and PWATs of 100-150 percent of
average, the potential for minor flooding will continue. However,
these PWATs are lower than what we have seen over the prior week
or so, and nothing substantial appears from the EC ENS Extreme
Forecast Index.

Northwest flow aloft will prevail Saturday and Sunday, but a weak
short-wave trough in the northwest flow will continue the chance
of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night. Sunday
appears to be relatively dry and warm as an upper short-wave
ridge moves over the CWA, but this will be followed by another
trough approaching late Monday and Tuesday. The various ensembles
again agree reasonably well on this evolution, but with a few
timing differences. This pattern is consistent with the 6-10- and
8-14-day outlooks, which continue to portend odds favoring above-
average precipitation and below-average temperature across the
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1106 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Scattered thunderstorm are expected across the area this
afternoon/evening with IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Bunkers
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1142 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

SDZ001-002-012>014-030>032-042>044-046-047-049-073-WYZ054>056-071-
291300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Oglala Lakota-
Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Western Crook-
Northeastern Crook-
1142 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 /1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
today, meaning that isolated severe storms are possible. Primary
hazards include large hail and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Strong to
severe storms are possible over far southwest South Dakota
Thursday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ024>029-041-072-074-WYZ057-058-291300-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Fall River-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Hermosa Foot Hills-
Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-
1142 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
today, meaning that scattered severe storms are possible. Primary
hazards include large hail and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Strong to
severe storms are possible over far southwest South Dakota
Thursday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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