Damaging Winds in South Dakota, July 12, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1124 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Key Messages:

- Severe weather chances for tonight and Thursday

- Hot and dry next week

At this hour, water vapor imagery and upper air analysis depict
shortwave riding quasi-zonal flow over MT making its way across the
Northern Plains. Upper low swirls over the Hudson Bay with another
low over New England. Current sfc analysis depicts convection and
cloud cover moving off to the east over central SD with clearing
from west to east across northeastern WY and western SD. Almost
stationary sfc boundary is draped over northeastern WY into the
Black Hills. We launched a special sounding for 19z and while it's
still going up - it's showing a capping inversion over western
SD. Vis sat shows slightly agitated CU field over the Black Hills
and northeastern WY though aforementioned cap seems to be holding
back convection for now...

Forecast soundings for later this afternoon/evening depict large
CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates of around 8.0
C/km, and effective shear of 45 kt. If the atmosphere recovers
enough from the convection this morning, this should be sufficient
for supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and an
isolated tornado threat. Storms will likely fire over northeastern
WY along the stalled boundary and move eastward over the Black Hills
into western SD. In addition to the severe weather threat, 12z
sounding depicts PWAT values 150% of average. This will contribute
to a threat of heavy rainfall with the stronger storms.

Weak upper level ridge builds to our west bringing drier and warm
weather for Wednesday. Highs will reach into the mid to upper 80s
over the plains, mid to upper 70s in the hills. Next shortwave moves
through the region Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast MU CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg and 35-45 kt of effective shear will be supportive of
at least strong to severe isolated severe storms.

Upper low over the Hudson Bay region retrogrades to the west and
swings through the Great Lakes region, riding the flow of the upper
trough over the eastern US. Upper ridge builds over the Rockies
putting us under northwest flow for the beginning of next week.
Looking to be hot and mostly dry next week as the upper ridge shifts
to the east over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1116 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Scattered thunderstorms over northeastern Wyoming and western
South Dakota will continue to move eastward during the rest of the
night, ending over south central South Dakota around 12Z on
Wednesday morning. Local IFR conditions, gusty winds and hail are
possible with the stronger storms. Areas of IFR conditions may
occur near the Black Hills and over parts of southwestern and
south central South Dakota until around 16Z on Wednesday morning.
VFR conditions expected on Wednesday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Wong
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1042 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-121300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
1042 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 /1142 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
today, meaning that scattered severe storms are possible. Primary
hazards include large hail and damaging wind gusts. There is also
a small chance for a tornado to develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There will be chances for thunderstorms over various parts of the
area each day through Saturday. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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