Tornado and Flash Flooding in Arkansas, July 12, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Another round of wet weather is expected to continue tonight into
tomorrow before the influence of upper ridging begins. This is
due to a weak shortwave that is steered in northwesterly flow
across a slow-moving frontal boundary that will be in the process
of meandering northeastward as a warm front overnight. In the
process, it will focus moisture for showers and thunderstorms that
develop in a corridor mostly between I-49 and the Ouachita River.
This activity will keep temperature minimums in the lower 70s
with mid-to-upper 70s elsewhere.

By tomorrow, lingering showers and thunderstorms will contribute
to excessive rainfall with flash flooding possible in the
aforementioned area of concern through most of the day.
Temperature maximums are expected in the mid-to-upper 90s in most
areas, prompting a continuation and likely expansion of the
ongoing Heat Advisory through the day tomorrow. Adequate
precautions are encouraged to be taken against the elevated
potential for heat illnesses. This includes (and is not limited
to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be
outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the
signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Not much in
the way of heat relief is expected by tomorrow night with
temperature minimums only cooling into the upper 70s. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

An upper-level ridge extending from the desert southwest eastward
into Texas and the ArkLaTex will maintain a dry forecast through at
least Friday. Subsidence associated with the ridge to drive high
temperatures from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees each day through
Saturday. Heat index values from late week though the weekend to
exceed 105 degrees across much of the region with possibly the
exception of the Ouachitas in southeast Oklahoma and southwest
Arkansas where temperatures will be slightly cooler. Across the
lakes region of Deep East Texas into portions of west-central
Louisiana heat index values could approach 110 degrees at times.

Late in the weekend, the upper-ridge will nudge west while still
keeping a foothold of heat across much of the region. The first of
several weak disturbances riding southeast along the periphery of
the ridge will bring scattered convection to mainly south Arkansas
on Sunday. Widely scattered convection will again be possible on
Monday afternoon. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Upper-level disturbance working into the airspace this evening and
overnight will pose the threat for TSRA/SHRA across the region
through sunrise and into the afternoon. This complex will be
isolated to the central and northeast tier of the FA. Heavy
rain rates will result in reduced VSBY and low CIGs across
terminals ranging from SHV, TXK, MLU and ELD. The slow and back
building nature of the complex will pose the threat for terminal
flooding. By mid period, the complex should diminish and lifting
of lower CIGs and scattering out should be in order. Sfc terminal
winds will remain southerly through the period, averaging between
5-10 kts. /RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  78  99  79 /  30   0   0  10
MLU  96  76  98  77 /  40   0   0  10
DEQ  94  76  95  77 /  10   0   0  10
TXK  97  77  97  78 /  20   0   0  10
ELD  94  75  97  76 /  50   0   0  10
TYR  98  79  99  79 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  96  78  99  78 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  99  77 100  77 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ060-061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ124-125-136-137-
     149-150-152-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
844 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

TXZ124-125-136-137-149-150-152-165>167-130145-
Wood-Upshur-Smith-Gregg-Cherokee-Rusk-Nacogdoches-Angelina-
San Augustine-Sabine-
844 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east Texas and northeast
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Heat Advisory will remain in effect overnight. Expect overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The heat is here to stay across the region for the remainder of the
work week. Look for the likelihood of the current Heat Advisory to
expand through at least the remainder of the work week and into the
first half of the weekend. Thunderstorms chances may return to the
region Sunday into Monday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ARZ050-051-059-LAZ017>020-022-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-126-138-151-
153-130145-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-La Salle-
McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Marion-
Harrison-Panola-Shelby-
844 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, north
central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east
Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Can't rule out some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the
region once again overnight. Some of these storms could produce
strong wind gusts and hail. In addition, excessive, heavy rainfall
could accompany the storms, thus an isolated flash flood threat
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The heat is here to stay across the region for the remainder of the
work week. Look for the likelihood of Heat Advisories through at
least the remainder of the work week and into the first half of the
weekend. Thunderstorms chances may return to the region Sunday into
Monday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-021-130145-
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-
Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Caldwell-
844 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana and northwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Look for scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region
overnight. Some of these storms could produce strong wind gusts and
hail. In addition, excessive, heavy rainfall could accompany these
storms, resulting in a flash flood threat. Therefore, a Flash Flood
Watch has been issued from Midnight through 1 PM Wednesday, with 3
to 5 inches of rainfall possible, along with isolated higher amounts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday morning into the
early portions of Wednesday afternoon. A Flash Flood Watch will
remain in effect through 1 PM as total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, with some isolated higher amounts, will be possible. The heat
is here to stay across the region for the remainder of the work
week. Look for the likelihood of Heat Advisories through at least the
remainder of the work week and into the first half of the weekend.
Thunderstorms chances may return to the region Sunday into Monday of
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

20