Diurnal heating, convergence along surface boundaries, and an unstable atmosphere contributed to scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A few produced small hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CAE wrote it up.
Diurnal heating, convergence along surface boundaries, and an unstable atmosphere contributed to scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A few produced small hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 9, 1:17 PM EST, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 217 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will approach from the north this afternoon, moving through the region tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the boundary, a few of which may become strong. It will be cooler and drier behind the front with a gradual warming trend into the weekend as ridging builds overhead. Possibly a little cooler and wetter next week as an anomalously deep upper trough develops over east CONUS with strong ridge out west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Winds aloft are northwesterly this afternoon associated with a building upper-level ridge to the west. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored to our southeast while a frontal boundary is slowly approaching from the north. This has resulted in generally clear skies across the forecast area this afternoon with scattered cumulus over the Southern Midlands and CSRA. Surface winds have been variable and generally in the 5-10 mph range. Temperatures are on track to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s today and it looks like CAE will see its first 90 degree day of the year. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop ahead of the encroaching backdoor cold front later today. Surface analysis suggests that a pre-frontal trough is located along the North Carolina border and will likely serve as the lifting mechanism for convection as it moves to the southeast. PWATs are generally around 1.2 inches and are expected to increase as the afternoon goes on. Latest mesoanalysis shows a gradient in CAPE values ranging from around 1000 J/kg in Lancaster County to over 3000 J/kg in the CSRA. This is ample instability for convective development and with Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, any thunderstorms that form will have the potential to generate strong wind gusts. Wind shear is marginal for severe weather with values in the 30-40 knot range over much of the Midlands. These factors combined suggest that showers and thunderstorms will be limited in coverage but any convection that develops could become strong to severe. As mentioned, strong winds will be the primary severe hazard but hail cannot be ruled out with the most vigorous convection. The SPC Day 1 outlook maintains a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather over much of the Midlands. Latest CAMs suggest that the favored location for showers and thunderstorms today will be over the Central Midlands instead of the Northeastern Midlands as previously advertised therefore adjusted PoPs accordingly with lower rain chances in the northeast and CSRA. Any convection should dissipate quickly with the loss of daytime heating. A backdoor cold front will move through tonight bringing in a cooler and drier air mass. An area of low stratus will likely move in behind the front towards daybreak. Despite the increasing clouds late, lows are expected to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s north and the lower to mid 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday and Wednesday night...Cold front will be across southern GA during the morning. Drier and cooler air will be advecting south through the area with pressure ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast extending into the area. Cold advection strongest in the morning. Precipitable water will be below 1 inch. Temperatures should be up to 10 degrees cooler with full insolation by late morning...expect some cloudiness in the morning. Cool overnight temps in the low to mid 50s. Thursday through Friday night...Moisture increases a bit through the period mainly in the CSRA and Piedmont. Upper ridge expected to build over the area. Upper trough over the lower Mississippi will lift northeast around upper ridge. Expect any showers to remain mainly west of the CSRA through Friday. Warming trend through the period with mid to upper 80s by Friday. Cool nights in the 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ensembles support upper ridge over the eastern CONUS into the weekend. Temperatures expected to rise over the weekend with temperatures into the low 90s by Sunday. Possibly a little cooler next week as an anomalously deep upper trough develops over east CONUS with strong ridge out west. Frontal boundary/trough near the area and increasing moisture as surface ridge weakens...moves east, may focus a few showers Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Skies are clear across the terminals this afternoon though scattered cumulus are starting to develop. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of a backdoor cold front later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Any thunderstorms that develop could become strong to severe, with gusty winds as the primary hazard. Any rain ends quickly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. The back door front will come through tonight, and result in a wind shift to northeast, along with the possibility of ceiling restrictions towards daybreak. Any low ceilings should lift towards the end of the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected Wednesday afternoon through Saturday, with the exception of possible patchy late night/early morning fog Friday and Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Columbia SC 316 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115- 116-135>137-100730- Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick- Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee- Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster- Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg- Southeastern Orangeburg- 316 AM EDT Tue May 9 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of these storms could become strong to severe during the afternoon, with strong winds and even some hail being the primary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed on this afternoon and evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
558 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023
SCZ037-038-137-092230-
Southeastern Orangeburg SC-Calhoun SC-Clarendon SC-
558 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Calhoun, southwestern Clarendon and southeastern Orangeburg Counties
through 630 PM EDT...
At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elloree, or 16 miles east of Brookdale, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Holly Hill, Elloree, Santee State Park, Santee, Eutawville, Vance,
Eautaw Springs, Indian Bluff Recreation Park, Poplar Creek Landing,
Blounts Landing and Mill Creek Marina and Campground.
This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 87 and 102.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3344 8022 3341 8023 3326 8039 3326 8043
3328 8048 3329 8049 3333 8049 3333 8050
3332 8053 3349 8065 3358 8054 3344 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 314DEG 14KT 3349 8055
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BCThe Columbia radar (KCAE), 79 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:08 UTC.
3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Dime size hail reported at Lake Marion Golf Course near Santee.
Two public reports, via social media, of pea size hail in and near downtown Aiken.
Orangeburg Co EM reported dime size hail near Bowman.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1086144, 1086143, 1086145.