Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 9, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Radar indicates a strong thunderstorm developing rapidly in Scott
county. Mesoanalysis indicates elevated MU CAPE to near 3000 J/kg.
Environment is favorable for elevated supercells with hail
potential this morning. Per coodination with SPC, a severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be required. Increased pops for the
northern and eastern zones for the next several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

There is showers and perhaps isolated storms early this morning across
NE Colorado into NW Kansas. This activity is expected slowly to move
eastward through the early morning hours, and perhaps weakening with
time. One main question from this early morning activity is if it will
reinforce a sfc boundary draped across western Kansas later today.
Meanwhile, broad southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the
state. This will result in a weak sfc low deepening with time today.
As a result, the dryline will mix eastward today across far southwest
Kansas. Ahead of the dryline and possibly reinforced front, dewpoints
in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected across the central and eastern
counties. SBCAPE of 3000 J/kg should be realized by this afternoon.
Will have to watch for the intersection of the southward moving front
and the eastward mixing dryline. There might be enough convergence
to spark storms this afternoon and evening. Will continue with the
highest pops east of Highway 283 to account for this possible convective
evolution. Directional shear throughout the atmospheric column is forecast
to be pretty remarkable, although speed shear is a bit lacking. Still,
bulk shear of 30-40 kt does suggest the possibility for a supercell
or two along the converging frontal boundaries. If, in fact, a supercell
does develop, then very large hail (2-3") and damaging winds would
be the primary threat. Will have to watch out this afternoon and evening
if a storm interacts with the boundaries enough to enhance low level
wind shear. If this happens, then a window of an isolated tornado is
possible. Overall confidence in any convective scenario remains low
to moderate at this time. Seems like the ARW has the best handle on
the mesoscale details at least at initialization. This activity will
move out of the FA this evening. The rest of the evening and into the
overnight hours should remain mainly tranquil. For Wednesday, the main
synoptic low will continue to remain to our west. Additional storm
activity is expected to develop across the higher terrain of Colorado
and eventually move east across western Kansas during the afternoon
and evening hours. Again, strong to severe storms will be possible
with this activity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Again, looks
like mainly a hail and wind threat. Will have to wait to see how
today plays out before becoming more concerned with tomorrow due to
confidence and convective evolution concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The synoptic low starts to eject out across the high plains Thursday.
The synoptics and mesoscale details still support the notion for a more
robust severe threat Thursday. Forecast SBCAPE of 2000 J/kg may be
realized during the afternoon and evening. One main concern is if storms
will develop earlier in the day due to limited capping concerns and
forcing from the synoptic low. If this happens, then the severe threat
might be slightly tempered. Still, CIPS analogs and pattern recognition
does support the notion to be weather aware for severe thunderstorms
Thursday. Am still monitoring the global models as well as the eventual
mesoscale models to get a more clear picture of how Thursday will play
out. There still is quite a bit of uncertainty in storm coverage as
well as storm mode at this time. If supercells do develop, then very
large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats. Tornadoes
could also be a more concern given the overall increasing wind shear
ahead of the synoptic low. Something to monitor future forecasts at
this time. Otherwise, dry air will eventually advect in Friday in the
wake of the departing synoptic low. A lull in shower and thunderstorm
activity may be possible during this time. Confidence beyond this time
period continues to remain very low at this time. The overall synoptic
flow pattern becomes weak with diverging solutions in the long term
period. Will continue with the NBM pops and temps for now considering
this building/continuing uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

VFR is expected through TAF pd. E to SE winds 15-30 kt will continue
through much of the period. Right now confidence is too low to add
TS in the TAFs for Tuesday evening. Early consensus shows that KDDC/KHYS
could end up likely to be the most impacted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  61  87  59 /  20  20  30  60
GCK  91  60  86  58 /  20  10  40  60
EHA  92  59  87  55 /  10  10  40  60
LBL  94  61  87  57 /  10  10  30  60
HYS  86  59  86  59 /  40  40  50  50
P28  88  63  87  61 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 /1233 AM MDT Tue May 9 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms, should they develop, will be possible. Very large
hail (2 to 3 inches) and damaging winds are the main threats. There
is also a very small but non zero threat for an isolated tornado. The
best area for severe thunderstorms today and tonight should be mainly
east of Highway 283.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across southwest Kansas Wednesday
and Thursday. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. At this time
it appears that the main threats are very large hail and damaging winds.
A slightly more robust threat may exist Thursday with tornadoes possible
as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ043-044-091145-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
610 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Scott and
northwestern Lane Counties through 645 AM CDT...

At 610 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shallow Water, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Scott City around 625 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Grigston, Manning
and Healy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 10049 3827 10085 3827 10088 3833 10110
      3869 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 213DEG 29KT 3836 10095

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJOHNSON