The local winds and a fading northeasterly swell where creating breaking waves above 6 feet along the coastal areas of Puerto Rico and Culebra. A High Rip Current Statement was in effect for these beaches.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
The local winds and a fading northeasterly swell where creating breaking waves above 6 feet along the coastal areas of Puerto Rico and Culebra. A High Rip Current Statement was in effect for these beaches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 20, 10:05 AM AST, 5 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1005 AM AST Mon Nov 20 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM AST Mon Nov 20 2023
A line of active thunderstorms moved into the Atlantic waters
early this morning and was approaching the northwest coast as of
9:30 AM AST. The line was fading everywhere except just west of
Aguada, but light to moderate showers and rain continued behind
the line and were also seen in a pre-frontal trough moving into SW
PR and along the north coast. Showers are expected to continue
across Puerto Rico through the day, and maximum temperatures
everywhere except in Saint Croix will not likely reach the 90s due
to the rain's cooling action. The morning sounding from San Juan,
Puerto Rico came in moist at 1.93 inches of precipitable water,
but also relatively stable with the maximum unstable layer CAPE of
757 J/Kg and even with the maximum forecast surface temperature
only 1251 J/Kg. This will preclude persistent heavy rains even
while the convergence line from yesterday and the front
approaching today will supply ample lift for the moist airmass
over the local area.
The U.S. Virgin Islands will see the activity later, but showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms will likely not reach Saint
Croix until tonight. Said showers will linger into Tuesday,
however, as the system and its associated moisture does not leave
the area until after 22/00Z Tuesday evening.
Moisture will linger in the lowest levels of the atmosphere
(generally below 850 mb) for most of the week and the onshore
flow for Puerto Rico and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. Virgin
Islands, behind the front will be able to maintain passing
showers with minor accumulations through at least Thursday
morning.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
.A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated
area of low pressure over the east central Caribbean, will continue
to slowly drift eastward across the Mona passage towards the west
coastal areas of Puerto Rico through this morning. This moisture
field will merge with a frontal trough/shearline just northwest of
the region, then sink southwards across the region Tuesday. In the
meantime,surface high pressure will build across the west and
southwest Atlantic resulting in the light southerly winds to
gradually become more northerly and increasing from Tuesday onwards.
Consequently an increase in low level moisture is forecast beginning
later today into Tuesday followed by a drier airmass thereafter.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...
Overnight, mostly calm weather conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Most of the rainfall and thunderstorm activity
associated with the area of low pressure located over the Central Caribbean
remained over the Mona Passage. However, some showers filtered along
the western and southern sections of Puerto Rico, and a line of passing
showers also moved over eastern PR, so far leaving minimal rainfall
accumulations. Temperature- wise, they remained in the low 80s along
the coastal areas, while across the mountainous areas, they stayed
in the 70s degrees Fahrenheit.
Today, we will transition from mostly dry conditions to a gradually
wetter pattern as the subsidence side of the trough moves north of
the region. As the moisture associated with the low-pressure system
over the Central Caribbean continues to move across the island,
expect showers to develop across PR and the USVI, particularly during
the afternoon and evening hours. The latest model guidance continues
to suggest mid to upper-level ridging and Saharan dust particulates
across the forecast area. At this time, the dust aerosol optical
depths are not foreseen to surpass 0.05, meaning that the concentrations
will not be significant enough to be included in the forecast as a slight
to moderate dust event. However, we encourage people with respiratory
problems to follow the recommendations of health experts. Today,the
wind flow will gradually become light and remain from the south-southwest.
On Tuesday, winds will become more northerly as a high-pressure ridge
builds across the southwestern Atlantic. This wind shift will bring
the remnant moisture associated with the surface low- pressure system
and the frontal shearline that will sink southwards across the area.
As a result, increasing low-level moisture is forecasted by Tuesday.
Therefore, expect to have the best potential for shower and isolated
thunderstorm development across the islands and coastal waters during
this time. We can not rule out an increased chance for excessive rainfall
in isolated areas and, thus, the potential for urban and small stream
flooding, water ponding on roads, and poor drainage areas.
By mid-week, dry weather conditions will return. Therefore, expect to
see a transition from wet/unstable conditions to dry/stable weather.
On Wednesday, expect the wind flow to gradually turn northeasterly
and easterly as the frontal boundary dissipates to the north of the
forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Overall for the long term, model guidance has been consistent in
suggesting a gradual drying trend and more seasonal weather
pattern through the period. As a result no significant changes and
only minor adjustments were made to the forecast. The latest
model guidance suggests Wednesday to be the transition day from a
fairly wet and marginally unstable pattern to gradual drying and
stable weather conditions. Thereafter, expect the wind flow to
gradually increase and become more northeasterly due to the
proximity of a dissipating frontal boundary and surface trough
northeast of the region and building surface high pressure ridge
across the west and southwest Atlantic on Thursday. By then, the
surface high pressure will shift into the central Atlantic, and
thus favor a more east to southeast wind flow through the weekend.
All in all, a gradual erosion of columnar moisture is expected for the
long term, with precipitable water values dropping below seasonal normal
thresholds (below 1.5 inches) as additional patches of dry air will
filter in across the forecast area resulting in limited shower activity
and convective development for most of the period. The overall decrease
in precipitable water values will therefore continue to lower the likelihood
of significant rainfall across the islands and consequently and diminish
the risk of widespread rainfall and flooding by the latter part of the
period and into the weekend.
Mostly fair weather and stable condition aloft is expected due to the
presence of a dominant high pressure ridge aloft along the the surface
ridging across the west and central Atlantic. However, occasional passing
trade wind showers can be expected across the coastal waters and portions
of the north and east coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, followed by a more seasonal and typical isolated to scattered
afternoon convection mainly across western PR and downwind of the U.S.
Virgin islands, due to daytime heating and sea breeze variations.
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR conds with low cigs and mtn obscurations are in NW
pR and will spread SE across the area thru 20/22Z. Sfc winds will
be mainly SSW at less than 10 kt, but iso-sct TSRA will have gusty
winds up to 30 kt in the band of mstr as it move thru the area.
Maximum winds W 30-40 FL165-190 and WNW 35-40 btwn FL230-270 and
NW 45-55 kt btwn FL480-505.
&&
.MARINE...
The marine and coastal conditions will remain choppy and hazardous
mainly over the Atlantic waters,local passages and north and east
facing beaches respectively. Overall conditions are forecast to
gradually improve today. However, the risk of rip currents will
continue to high particularly along the northwest to north and
east coastlines of Puerto Rico and for Culebra and St Croix.
Please refer to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU) and
the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for
the latest information.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ002.
AM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WS
PUBLIC/UPPER AIR....LISPerspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR 443 AM AST lunes 20 de noviembre de 2023 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-210845- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior- Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe- 443 AM AST lunes 20 de noviembre de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para sectores de Puerto Rico. . DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche . Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas aisladas a dispersas son posibles particularmente a través de Puerto Rico y Culebra. Esté atento a las tormentas eléctricas en su área y esté preparado para buscar refugio. . Lluvia Excesiva...Acumulación de agua en carreteras y áreas mal drenadas a través de los sectores del oeste de Puerto Rico, donde la actividad de lluvia ha comenzado a desarrollarse. Las inundaciones de riachuelos urbanos y pequeños son posibles. . Calor Excesivo...Índice de calor de 102-107 grados particularmente a través del norte y oeste de PR, así como Culebra y Vieques. Agotamiento por calor es posible con una exposición prolongada. . Condiciones Marítimas...Las embarcaciones pequeñas deben ejercer precaución a través del Pasaje de Mona y las aguas mar afuera del Atlántico. . Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida son probables en la zona de olas particularmente en playas a lo largo de la costa oeste, norte y este de PR y Culebra. . DÍAS DOS A SIETE...martes a domingo Espere condiciones meteorológicas más húmedas el martes a medida que los vientos cambian de dirección norte y traen humedad de un viejo sistema frontal. No obstante, para mediados de la semana en adelante, espere condiciones más secas a través de las islas a medida que el flujo de viento gira gradualmente hacia el este. . COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-210845- San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 443 AM AST lunes 20 de noviembre de 2023 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas. . DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche . Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas aisladas a dispersas son posibles principalmente sobre las islas de San Thomas y San John. Esté atento a las tormentas eléctricas en su área y esté preparado para buscar refugio. . Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida son probables en la zona de olas particularmente en playas a lo largo de la isla de Santa Cruz. . DÍAS DOS A SIETE...martes a domingo Espere condiciones meteorológicas más húmedas el martes a medida que los vientos cambian de dirección norte y traen humedad de un viejo sistema frontal. No obstante, para mediados de la semana en adelante, espere condiciones más secas a través de las islas a medida que el flujo de viento gira gradualmente hacia el este. . COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
345 PM AST Mon Nov 20 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0220 PM Rip Currents 1 NNW Culebra 18.33N 65.32W
11/20/2023 AMZ716 PR 911 Call Center
The 911 call center reported that two people
were swept away by rip currents in Playa
Flamenco by the villas. One was rescued, the
other person drowned.
&&
CVB1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A 42-year old male drowned after being swept away by rip currents at Playa Flamenco in Culebra. Another person was rescued when was also swept away by these rip currents.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Culebra | 2023-11-20 | 42 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1149087.