The combination of a surface low and deep-layer trough northwest of Puerto Rico created a band of convergence across the islands. This produced numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern sections of Puerto Rico on May 22, 2023, which resulted in river flooding in Naguabo.
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The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
The combination of a surface low and deep-layer trough northwest of Puerto Rico created a band of convergence across the islands. This produced numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern sections of Puerto Rico on May 22, 2023, which resulted in river flooding in Naguabo.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 5:28 AM AST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 528 AM AST Mon May 22 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 423 AM AST Mon May 22 2023 A band of convergence extends over the area from a low level low pressure north of Hispaniola that is bringing copious moisture in showers and thunderstorms. This deep moisture will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday. Generally moist conditions with moderate instability will continue through early next week and bring scattered to numerous showers each day. Small craft will need to exercise caution for the next several days in the northeast portion of our local outer Atlantic waters due to seas approaching 6 feet. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday... Present satellite imagery, Doppler weather radar along with recent model guidance and the previous TJSJ 22/00Z upper air sounding, all suggest wet and unstable weather conditions across the northeastern Caribbean. The surface low and deep-layer trough northwest of Puerto Rico continues to promote active weather across the forecast area and it is expected to persist throughout the day. Some quieter periods may occur, particularly during the late morning hours. However, Hi-Res models suggest a fairly active afternoon lingering through the evening hours. Some cloud cover may delay convective initiation over land, but will definitely pick up as showers and thunderstorm activity over waters prevail. Tuesday and Wednesday look less active as the surface low lifts north. However, as it does so, it will induce southerly winds prompting further moisture pulling over the eastern Caribbean basin. Instability will diminish somewhat but plenty of tropical moisture in combination with diurnal heating and local effects will promote active afternoons. Expect urban and small stream flooding across the area with localized flash flooding events with the heaviest rains. Rivers are running high and soils are saturated. These conditions will yield excessive runoff with possible landslides in steep terrain. && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday... The low pressure in the lower levels north of Hispaniola that has brought a broad swath of convergence to the local area aided by an unstable atmosphere will be approaching the Carolinas of the eastern United States by Thursday. Yet the swath of convergence and southerly flow will still be present across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Its connection with good tropical moisture from the southern Caribbean will keep precipitable water values above 1.6 inches Thursday through Saturday. High pressure ridging into the northeastern Caribbean will also pull a band of tropical moisture across the area on Sunday that will push precipitable water values back above 2 inches on Sunday. At the same time, the weak upper level cut-off low that will have swung through the area Monday and Tuesday, will be gone and a ridge from over Venezuela will replace it by Saturday. This will reduce thunderstorm activity which will generally only be present during the afternoons over Puerto Rico and the local waters during the early evening hours each day of the long term period. By early next week, upper level flow will be almost northwesterly. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms will still contribute to a limited risk of excessive rainfall each day. Earlier rains will also add to better runoff and rivers that can rise rapidly during local downpours. Temperatures are expected to remain at or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM AST Mon May 22 2023 Tempo MVFR to brief IFR conditions possible at TJSJ/TJPS/TJBQ today. Expect mtn top obscurations and periods of SHRA/TSRA at least thru 22z. Across the USVI terminals, mainly VFR conditions expected with VCTS for TIST at times through the period. Winds 10-15 kts in SE-S flow aft 22/14Z. Maximum winds WSW 50-60 kts btwn FL430-460. && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM AST Mon May 22 2023 Swell from the east northeast will increase the seas in the northeast corner of our local Atlantic offshore waters through Wednesday. Small craft advisories are not expected but a line of convergence extending south from the eastern side of a low north of Hispaniola will keep showers and scattered thunderstorms over the local waters through at least Tuesday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for most beaches with a northern or eastern exposure. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 423 AM AST Mon May 22 2023 Very heavy rainfall has occured over Puerto Rico during the last 18 hours. Totals since Sunday afternoon were between 6 and 7.5 inches across parts of Penuelas, Ponce, and Juana Diaz. Yabucoa showed over 8 inches according to NWS Doppler radar. At this time most of the local rivers have peaked and are subsiding. A number peaked significantly higher than normal below their flood stages including Rio Jacaguas, Rio Guayanes, Rio Mameyes and Rio Espiritu Santo. Rio Blanco in Naguabo peaked above 12 feet, and is subsiding, but is currently still above its flood stage of 7 feet. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && AVIATION/PUBLIC...CVB MARINE/LONG TERM....WS SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODING...ERG/CVB
Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 450 AM AST lunes 22 de mayo de 2023 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-230900- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central- Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe- 450 AM AST lunes 22 de mayo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Se esperan tronadas numerosas a traves de Puerto Rico y las aguas locales. Planifique para detener toda actividad al aire libre y buscar refugio. .Lluvias Excesivas...Inundaciones en areas urbanas, carreteras, riachuelos y areas bajas. Inundaciones repentinas son posibles. .Calor Excesivo...Se esperan indices de calor de 102-107 grados a traves de sectores del norte y oeste de Puerto Rico. Agotamiento por calor es posible con exposicion prolongada. .Condiciones maritimas...Operadores de embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion en las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico. .Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida en la zona de rompimiento de olas, particularmente en las playas con orientacion al norte y este de Puerto Rico y Culebra. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...martes a domingo El riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas continuara a lo largo de la costa norte hasta el fin de semana. Inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos con areas aisladas propensas a inundaciones repentinas son probables de martes a viernes. Acumulacion de agua en areas de poca elevacion son localmente posibles durante el fin de semana. Se esperan algunas tronadas durante las tardes. Se espera calor excesivo en areas de poca elevacion al norte y oeste de Puerto Rico. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se les exhorta a los observadores a que reporten condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-230900- San Tomas, San John y las Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 450 AM AST lunes 22 de mayo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Tronadas de aisladas a dispersas seran posibles. Planifique detener toda actividad al aire libre y este listo para buscar refugio. .Lluvia excesiva... Acumulacion de agua en las carreteras y en areas de pobre drenaje es posible. Inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles. .Condiciones maritimas...Operadores de embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion en las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son posibles en la zona de rompimiento de olas, particularmente en el extremo este de Santa Cruz. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...martes a domingo Un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas estara presente en Santa Cruz el martes y miercoles al igual que el viernes y sabado. Acumulacion de agua en areas localizadas de poca elevacion es posible el martes y miercoles. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se les exhorta a los observadores a que reporten condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
The San Juan radar (TJUA), 32 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:17 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management officials reported that Rio Blanco rose out of its banks due to excessive rainfall and flooded an area of roadway PR-31 around km 8.9 in Naguabo.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1092074.