NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 16, 8:38 AM EST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 8:38 AM EST, 3 hours 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
938 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move into the Mid Atlantic region today. This
will bring a round of widespread showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. The low will drift to the northeast through Saturday
with additional showers and storm expected. Strong high
pressure developing across New England with a coastal low
offshore of North Carolina and Virginia will result in breezy
conditions and below normal temperatures into the middle of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Just got done making some adjustments to the grids. Looks like
an outflow boundary, stemming from the early morning convection
over the Delmarva is now working northward through northern DE,
southeast PA and southern NJ. PoPs were added to account for
this feature. Then for later today, some adjustments were made
to the back end of the expected convection. I trimmed the likely
PoPs over the Delaware Valley/I95 corridor to chance in the 6
to 8 pm time frame thinking that the focus of the convection
will be closer to the coast at this time. In other words, I
sped the back-end up a bit.
As far as the main event later today goes, the potential still
exists for strong to severe thunderstorms. Looking at the synoptic
setup, a positively tilted 500 mb trough is digging through the
Great Lakes into western PA this morning. It will eventually take on
a neutral tilt later this morning/afternoon. Strong positive
vorticity advection during the morning with modest height falls will
lead to strong synoptic lift during the day. Mostly clear skies
during the morning should lead to destabilization fairly quickly
over South Jersey and Delmarva. Cloud cover from a decaying MCS over
western PA/eastern OH could limit destabilization over eastern PA
and northern NJ. On the mesoscale, a weak cold front/surface trough
will provide the trigger necessary to see showers and thunderstorms
develop. The latest CAMs and their forecast soundings continue to
indicate MLCAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
30-40 kt. Forecast soundings indicate some veering with height in
the lowest few thousand feet, but speed shear is overall lacking in
the lowest levels with 850 mb wind only 20-25 kt. Some storm
organization/a few discrete cells are possible as mean storm motion
vectors have a line normal component to the boundary. Current
thinking, though, is that we'll be looking at a multicellular mode
with the strongest cells capable of damaging winds and hail.
Equilibrium levels should be approaching 28kft which is plenty tall
enough to have enough charge separation distance for lightning to
generate. The wet bulb zero levels are also on the low side for June
(8,000-9,000 feet) and with cool mid-level air in place, lapse rates
will be sufficient to support some hail development.
All this said, SPC has kept most of Delmarva and the southern third
of New Jersey in a Slight risk for severe weather today, while
southeastern PA and central New Jersey remains in a Marginal. It is
worth noting that there will likely be a cutoff in the favorable
instability and shear parameters further north, hence the highest
threat lies to the south, but mesoanalysis later this morning will
give a better idea of where the most favorable environment exists.
The primary window for convective development will be around 11am-
5pm.
In addition to the severe threat, PWATs are forecast to rise to 1.3-
1.5" with the southerly flow advecting in moisture ahead of the
boundary. Don't expect any widespread hydro concerns as storm motion
should be quick enough, but it is worth noting that a quick burst of
heavy rain is possible for any area that remains under a convective
core or any training cells. WPC has added a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall for all of our PA zones, all of NJ, and northern
Delaware. Similar to Monday, the areas to watch will be urban and
poor drainage areas.
Clouds and some scattered showers/a few rumbles of thunder should
linger into the evening with continuing PVA as the upper trough
swings through and no significant dry air building in behind the
surface trough, though coverage should be limited as we lose surface
forcing. With the lack of dry air advection, there could be some
patchy fog developing overnight. Overnight lows will range from the
mid to upper 50s, with some spots staying above the 60 degree
mark.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday looks to be another showery day along with potential
for some thunderstorms albeit the storms should be mainly
across the northern portion of the forecast area. A cutoff low
is anticipated to swing down from the north, with a series of
shortwaves rounding the base of the low. Showers and a few
thunderstorms look likely especially during the afternoon. With
freezing levels relatively low, the main potential hazard will
be small hail. Across the central and southern NJ and DelMarVA
it should be a mostly cloudy day otherwise, with temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s with the higher elevations of northern
NJ and the southern Poconos staying in the 60s.
Showers will dissipate and move out of the area Saturday night,
with most of the overnight period looking dry. Skies will clear
out a bit as well. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper
50s with some spots staying at/above the 60 degree plateau.
On Sunday, the region will be situated on the back side of the
departing cutoff low. With another lobe of shortwave energy
tracking through the region, an isolated shower or two may
develop generally north of Philly however most areas should
stay dry. Temperatures on Sunday will get into the low to mid
80s, with upper 70s in North Jersey and lower 70s in the
southern Poconos.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period will be characterized by diurnally driven
shower and thunderstorm chances Monday and beyond with below
normal temperatures for Tuesday and beyond.
For the Monday-Thursday timeframe, a lot of uncertainty exists.
Guidance hints at another closed low developing somewhere over
the southeast US with a modified blocking pattern setting up.
This would bring several shortwaves through the region bringing
a prolonged period of unsettled weather with small rain chances
(20-40%) each day. Important to note that the positioning of the
developing low will have a large effect on our sensible
weather, and both ensemble and deterministic guidance have a
wide variety of solutions. While Monday looks warm with
temperatures near normal due to a warm front that eventually
becomes stationary, there is a decent signal for below normal
temperatures for the middle and end of next week. This will be
the result of strong high pressure building to our north and
east and a coastal low near the North Carolina and Virginia
coasts providing a stout east to northeast flow across the
region.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...Sub-VFR restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms,
especially in the late morning/early afternoon. Some of the
thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and hail. South/Southwesterly
wind 5-10 knots outside of thunderstorms. Moderate confidence
overall.
Tonight...A wide spread among guidance remains for tonight. Showers
should clear out during the mid-evening, though stratus and patchy
fog is possible overnight. Restrictions look likely but
confidence is low on the extent and exact timing of any MVFR/IFR
conditions. Winds will generally be light and variable, before
picking up late out of the northwest around 5-10 kt. Low
confidence.
Outlook...
Friday night...A wide spread among guidance remains for Friday
Night. Showers should clear out during the mid-evening, though
stratus and patchy fog looks possible overnight. Have included
MVFR CIGs with some spots seeing reduced visibility in fog. Low
confidence.
Saturday through Saturday Night...Prevailing VFR with sub-VFR
possible due to scattered TSRA. Northwest winds around 10-15 kt
with gusts near 20 kt. Moderate confidence.
Sunday through Sunday Night...Prevailing VFR. Low chance TSRA.
West/Northwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt.
Moderate confidence.
Monday through Monday Night...Prevailing VFR. Low chance TSRA.
East/Southeast winds around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Low
confidence.
Tuesday...Prevailing VFR. Low chance SHRA. East winds 10-15
kts. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines are anticipated through tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and evening along the
waters. A brief period of gusty winds and small hail are possible.
South/Southeast winds around 10-15 kt during the day shifting to
west/northwest winds late tonight, remaining around 10-15 kt. Seas 2
to 3 feet.
Outlook...
Saturday through Saturday Night...No marine headlines
anticipated. Westerly winds around 10 kt. Showers and
thunderstorms possible later in the day. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday through Sunday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
South/Southwest winds around 10 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday through Monday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Southeast winds around 10-15 kt and seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. East winds
10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Chance of showers.
Rip Currents...
With a medium period southeast swell and breaking wave heights
around 1 to 3 feet, there is a LOW risk for rip currents at the
Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches for today and Saturday. Winds
will be out of the south to southwest.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A higher astronomical tide is anticipated the next few nights with
the coming New Moon on the 18th.
Friday Night's high tide has a chance to reach advisory
criteria along the NJ and DE coast and within the Delaware Bay.
Water levels should be lower within the Chesapeake Bay and tidal
Delaware River, but some spotty minor flooding cannot be ruled
out.
Coastal flooding concerns will likely continue into the weekend.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/Kruzdlo
SHORT TERM...Deal/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Deal/Staarmann
AVIATION...Deal/Hoeflich
MARINE...Deal/Hoeflich
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...