Wildfire in Oregon, July 15 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
451 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows clear skies for most
inland locations. The exception is along the coast where marine
stratus continues persist just south of Pistol River and north of
Cape Blanco.

It will remain dry for the next 10 days at the least, with no threat
of thunderstorms.

The upper ridge axis will remain over the area today, then shifting
east as an upper trough from the northwest pushes towards the Pac
NW. Today will be the hottest day of the forecast period, followed
by slight cooling Sunday and moreso Monday, although afternoon
temperatures Monday will still be above normal. Temperatures this
evening hours will be quite warm, and by the time things cool down
enough it will be late at night. Thus the opportunity for overnight
relief is expected to be short. Because of this, the heat advisory
remains in effect. Details on this can be found at NPWMFR.

As the upper trough moves towards the area, the upper ridge will
shift east. Some evidence shows mid level moisture moving up from
the south on the western fringe of the upper ridge in California
Sunday, then moving into our area Sunday night. Given there is
little or no trigger and it's coming in at night, the most likely
scenario will be varying amounts of mid level clouds moving into the
east side and Modoc County Sunday night into early Monday morning.

In the wake of the Sunday night's upper trough passage will be
cooler afternoon temperatures Monday, but they will still be above
normal. A weak zonal flow will set up for most of next week, which
typically results in dry and warm weather. Towards the end of next
week, there's good agreement among the operational models and
ensembles we'll be sandwich in between an upper trough to our
northwest the Alaska Panhandle and a four corners ridge. The net
result will be continued dry and warm weather, but it won't be hot
-Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...16/00Z TAFs...Marine Stratus has returned to the coast
from Cape Blanco northward, including at KOTH. These IFR to LIFR
conditions will continue to build in overnight for the rest of the
coast. Meanwhile, expect another afternoon and evening of gusty
winds to 20-30kts.

Inland, VFR with mostly clear skies will continue to persist through
the TAF period at all terminals. Normal afternoon breezy winds will
pick up once again tomorrow afternoon and evening. -Schaaf

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, July 15, 2023...Elevated
north to northwest winds will continue over coastal waters under a
persistent thermal trough, with the strongest winds just offshore
south of Cape Blanco. These conditions will bring very steep wind-
driven seas to waters south of Gold Beach today and a Hazardous Seas
Warning is in place through 8 PM this evening to communicate these
conditions. All other waters will be under a Small Craft Advisory
through 8 PM this evening due to steep seas.

Saturday evening, winds north of Cape Blanco will come down enough
for seas to calm below hazardous levels. Steep seas are expected to
continue for waters south of Cape Blanco, and a Small Craft Advisory
will remain over theses waters through Monday. Model guidance
suggests that steep seas will continue through mid-week, with areas
of hazardous seas again possible. -TAD/CSP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, July 15,
2023...The upper level ridge with thermal trough at the surface
pattern continues through the weekend, with hot temperatures and
moderate to poor recoveries along the upper slopes and ridges under
east flow with low daytime humidities for almost all inland
locations. Humidities are forecast to reach critical values for
areas east of the Cascades each afternoon, but winds should remain
relatively light compared to recent days. Conversely, winds are
expected to reach their critical values west of the Cascades (at
both valleys and ridges), but humidities should stay just above
critical values. So through Sunday conditions will be close, but not
quite to red flag conditions.

This pattern is expected to peak Monday east of the Cascades when
humidities bottom out and winds increase in response to an
incoming trough. This could lead to a period of critical fire
weather conditions east of the Cascades where humidities in the
low teens to single digits are possible Monday afternoon along
with possible wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph. -Sven

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ029>031.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ023-024-026.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ025-027-028.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for ORZ624.

CA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ080>082.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ083>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-
     376.

&&