Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, first from a decaying morning mesoscale convective system and later forming on outflow from earlier activity, produced heavy rainfall on July 1st. 0 inches supported efficient rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, first from a decaying morning mesoscale convective system and later forming on outflow from earlier activity, produced heavy rainfall on July 1st. Instability was not high, but precipitable water values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches supported efficient rainfall. Localized totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches, locally higher, produced flash flooding in several areas. Particularly hard hit was East Liverpool, with some home damage as a result of the flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 5:54 PM EST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 654 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to heavy rain thunderstorms will periodically impact the region through Monday that may create periods of heightened localized flash flood risks. Strong to severe afternoon storms are becoming less likely, but remain a concern for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Mesoanalysis indicates a weak area of PVA exiting central OH towards western PA now, promoting renewed convective initiation. Weak steering flow combined with around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, weak shear and above 90th percentile PWATs is allowing storms to exhibit 1-3"/hr rainfall rates. Thus, the main threat through the evening will be localized flash flooding, especially for urban and flood-prone locations and where these storms exhibit slower forward movement. Subsidence and increasing nocturnal stabilization is expected across eastern OH to northern WV behind this wave, meaning most locations will remain dry for much of the overnight period. As the PVA moves east of the region, storms will also exit and allow for those dry conditions to develop areawide. Morning fog could develop given such a moist boundary layer, but probabilities remain low given likely presence of cloud cover that limits cooling. As the region remains in a moist environment with elevated instability, hi-res models suggest that next round of thunderstorms will lift northeast early Saturday morning ahead of a weak shortwave and pseudo warm front. The most likely threat will be localized flash flooding given continued depth of warm layer near climatological record PWAT values, but limited instability/shear may lower that threat while limiting chance for strong to damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The aforementioned surface boundary and upper shortwave will lift northeast through the early afternoon Sunday, pushing a broken line of moderate to heavy showers with occasional lightning into northwest PA. This will be in response to approaching low pressure over the western Great Lakes and resultant SW flow ahead of the upper trough. The rest of the day remains difficult to assess regarding timing, hazard threats, and overall storm probabilities as models offer a variety of outcomes based on the shortwave exiting and upper jet ascent ahead of the trough. The message to focus on is a period of moderate to heavy rain with the surface boundary in the morning, with on and off thunderstorm potential through the evening. That highest probabilities will likely lay over/north of I-80 where that boundary could stall as the surface low pivots. Severe threat will likely be limited to south of Pittsburgh where greater instability will exist, with a likely greater flash flood threat given the humid airmass. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue Sunday night into Monday evening as the upper trough crosses the region. Instability appears likely to be more limited during this period, meaning severe threats are not expected. Flash Flood concerns may remain given little environmental change and likely greater ground saturation through repeated rounds of rain. Temperatures are expected to trend down, especially with cold frontal passage and shift to northwest flow by Monday evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Brief ridging on Tuesday will significantly lower shower/thunderstorm potential for Independence Day. While we can't rule out a isolated shower, kept PoPs generally around 20% or less during the afternoon. Highs will warm into the mid 80s for most with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Heat indices will push into the upper 80s to near 90 across the region during the afternoon. The same can be said for Wednesday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms due a stalled boundary along the Allegheny Front but also owing to a more diurnal setup. Once again, Heat Indices values will be a concern on Wednesday but values only crossing 90 degrees will be the concern. A more prominent trough arriving by the middle of next week will increase precipitation chances once again by Thursday and Friday. Warmer temperatures continue through mid-week, with a slight cool down back to average by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave passage will foster moderate to heavy rain showers with isolated thunderstorms across western PA through this evening, with dry weather likely to briefly develop after 03z. The next shortwave will approach early Saturday from the southwest, with showers and isolated thunderstorms likely developing along a weak surface boundary. Initial restrictions will be limited to convective activity, with MVFR/IFR vsby restrictions that occasionally drop down to LIFR levels while cigs hold at VFR. By the morning, an overly saturated boundary layer and plus sfc front approach should support more widespread MVFR cig restrictions, though this is far from certain. Fog may also develop if enough clearing exists, especially for rain-soaked locations. Hi-res models are trending drier by the afternoon with potential for a dry slot aiding a downward trend in storm activity, but much remains uncertain during this period. .OUTLOOK... Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances plus associated restrictions will continue into Monday with the eventually passage of a low pressure system. Timing and coverage will likely remain difficult to ascertain during this period, with prior days' convection strongly influencing these factors. Notable ensemble model agreement suggests Tuesday will provide prolonged VFR conditions with dry weather as high pressure builds over the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...Rackley NEAR TERM...Frazier SHORT TERM...Frazier LONG TERM...Rackley/Shallenberger AVIATION...22/McMullen
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 658 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-073-074-077-078-WVZ001- 002-022300- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Mercer- Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny- Armstrong-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Indiana- Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke- 658 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Moderate to heavy rainfall within thunderstorms may lead to localized flash flooding impacts, especially for urban and low-lying areas. The threat is expected to dissipate by midnight as storms move east of the region. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Moderate to heavy rainfall within thunderstorms may lead to localized flash flooding impacts, especially for urban and low-lying areas. Isolated thunderstorms may also become strong to severe with damaging wind the primary threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. OHZ057>059-068-069-PAZ029-031-075-076-WVZ003-004-012-021-509>514- 022300- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Washington-Greene-Fayette- Higher Elevations of Fayette-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- 658 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability of hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Moderate to heavy rainfall within thunderstorms may lead to localized flash flooding impacts, especially for urban and low-lying areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also become strong to severe with damaging wind the primary threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
207 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
PAZ077-078-011830-
Higher Elevations of Indiana PA-Indiana PA-
207 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...
At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Northern Cambria, or 11 miles east of Indiana, moving
east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Clymer, Cherry Tree, Dixonville, Commodore, and Yellow Creek State
Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4072 7881 4057 7888 4055 7902 4070 7907
4081 7881 4072 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 248DEG 20KT 4065 7895
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MilcarekPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
656 PM EDT Sat Jul 01 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0601 PM Flash Flood Marguerite 40.27N 79.46W
07/01/2023 Westmoreland PA 911 Call Center
Water was coming into the Marguerite Volunteer Fire
Department.
&&
Event Number PBZ2301880
SKHThe Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 30 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:14 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A road was washed out in the 900 block of Valley Avenue. Dry Run came out of its banks, with multiple homes inundated.
Extensive home damage in East Liverpool was seen as a result of flood waters.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1121126, 1121129.