Storms in the late hours of July 25th caused high wind gusts in southeastern North Dakota. These storms continued to produce high winds and even hail as they moved into Minnesota.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Storms in the late hours of July 25th caused high wind gusts in southeastern North Dakota. These storms continued to produce high winds and even hail as they moved into Minnesota.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 10:46 PM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 T-storms continue to form in a scattered fashion over Manitoba, a tad west of where initial CAMs had them. Strongest storm near Portage la Prairie and likely to move east-southeast. Idea of a chance of storms in far NW MN later tonight looks on target. UPDATE Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Scattered t-storms are starting to form northwest of Portage la Prairie Manitoba and this area is highlighted by more and more CAMs indicating t-storm development continues near Lake Manitoba and moves southeast thru the night and potentially affect far NW Minnesota after midnight, more like after 08z. So did add pops with latest NBM guidance which shows 30 pops for thunder from neare Hallock east to Baudette late tonight. UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 The probability for showers and thunderstorms in our CWA is diminishing with each passing hour. Cumulus clouds have developed within the Grant/Wilkin county area, but have lacked agitation thanks to very limited forcing. Other than that, smoke will continue to be the primary impact for the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Key Messages: -Smoke continues to move across the area thanks to a NW flow aloft. Patchy areas in NW MN could see visibilities drop below 6 miles. -Isolated chance (<20%) for showers or a stray thunderstorm later this afternoon and evening. Conditional chance as no lifting mechanism is available. -Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening ahead of a frontal boundary. Strength of the boundary and the capping of the atmosphere are uncertain. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main treats. -Heat begins to build today and into the middle portions of the week. Discussion: During the early morning hours Tuesday brief patchy fog is possible in lakes country as dew points remain in the 60s and overnight lows reach the low to mid 60s. Dew point depressions near zero and light and variable winds could create low lying patchy fog. Once sun rises the chances would diminish. Smoke continues to move across portions of the forecast area today and linger into Tuesday. Majority of the smoke is aloft, but a few areas in NW MN could see the smoke mix down to the surface reducing visibility briefly to 4-6 miles. RAP and HRRR guidance has smoke remaining across the area through tomorrow morning before winds start to move the smoke further to the east. Higher level smoke could linger longer into the afternoon on Tuesday. Latest HI Res guidance has continued to diminish the chances for isolated showers and storms this evening across west central MN. With no lifting mechanism to initiate development chances for development are <5%. This is not the case for tomorrow afternoon as a frontal boundary begins to shift into the region. An approaching warm front Tuesday afternoon brings strong temperature advection through the 700mb level. Highs reach into the low to mid 90s. Strong southerly moisture flow brings dew points into the upper 60s to lower 70s allowing apparent temperatures to reach into the mid to potential upper 90s by the afternoon. Instability ahead and along the front reaches up to 2500 J/kg. The approaching front will help trigger thunderstorm development. There are three types of scenarios. The less likely scenarios (<20%), is a linear organized line developing along the warm front as dew points reach into the mid 70s. This would help erode the CAP faster allowing for storms to become organized and increase a damaging wind threat. The other less likely outcome (<20%) is the CAP remains in place and temperatures don't reach the convective point in the afternoon. Moisture flow would need to be minimal and dew points only reach into the low to mid 60s. This would rely on the frontal boundary to be strong enough to break the CAP. The most likely scenario is discrete storm develop along and ahead of the front. Modest frontogentic strength along with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s would allow for some of the CAP to erode slowly and develop discrete thunderstorms. With 0-6km shear 35kts+ and weak low level shear <10kts, we would see a hail threat and a marginal wind threat. This scenario is the most likely outcome and HI Res guidance has picked up on this trend in multiple runs. Hail up to ping pong balls and winds up to 60mph will be the main threats for Tuesday late afternoon through the evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Key Messages: -Heat continues to build across the region Wednesday, with highs in the 90s to potential 100 degree mark in isolated locations. -Chance for stronger storms Wednesday evening as a secondary boundary moves through the area. -Zonal flow sets up mid to late week increasing chances for showers and storms on and off through the early part of the weekend. Discussion: Temperature advection continues to surge in the low to mid levels bringing temperatures into the mid to upper 90s for Wednesday. Dew points have increased from previous runs, with them reaching into the lower 70s. High dew points and warm temperatures help increase heat indices to near 100 degrees during the afternoon. We have a chance to reach near heat advisory criteria briefly during the afternoon for areas within the Red River Valley and near the SD border. Things that could hinder our Apparent T's from reaching the low 100s are stronger winds and precipitation chances. Winds are looking to be rather light around 5-10kts, but we do have precipitation chances in the afternoon and evening hours. A secondary boundary shifts down from Canada during the late afternoon and evening helping initiate thunderstorms in the northern forecast area. Uncertainty lies with the placement and strength of the thunderstorms. This is due in part to the convective temperatures being high, a strong CAP, and the boundaries strength. A stronger boundary could easily break the CAP and initiate development however this is a less likely scenario. Convective temperatures are looking to be in the upper 90s and areas may struggle to reach the upper 90s for highs in the northern forecast area. This would help hold the CAP in place. Chances are there for thunderstorms, but uncertainty is high at this time. Any storm that would initiate could build their updrafts quickly and bring hail and strong winds. After the secondary boundary moves through temperatures start to drop, but remain warm across the region. Highs on Thursday reach into the upper 80s and low 90s briefly before dropping to the low to mid 80s to finish off the week and go into the weekend. Clusters have indicated this happening from a result of the amplified ridge flattening out across the northern plains. A trough moves in from Alaska helping to flatten out the ridge and relieve some of the northern United States from the heat. However, as zonal flow sets up and instability remains we could see a trend of on and off thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the long term. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Pockets of MVFR vsbys due to smoke/haze/fog around thru daybreak Tuesday. South winds pick up enough Tuesday so should see vsbys improve. Mid cloud and scattered t-storms into NW MN late tonight with mid clouds into NE ND as well late tonight and into Tuesday. Not seeing any chances for lower clouds, any lower than 6000 ft agl thru the pd. Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday late afternoon and evening over the area, but details on which site has the better chance and when is just too far out at this time so didnt include any TS mention at any TAF site. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...Spender LONG TERM...Spender AVIATION...Riddle
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026- 027-030-054-251930- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Traill-Western Walsh- 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the region Tuesday evening. The main hazards will be quarter sized hail and up to 60 MPH winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. NDZ028-029-038-039-049-052-053-251930- Griggs-Steele-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the region Tuesday evening. The main hazards will be up to ping pong ball sized hail, and up to 60 MPH winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:00 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Public reports wind damage relating to a thunderstorm. Healthy tree branches greater than 6 inches and some shingles blown off the roof. Time estimated by radar.
Wind gust measured at NDDOT site along the SD/ND border.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1118978, 1118979.