An approaching cold front from the Ohio Valley led to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across central NC in the late-afternoon and early evening hours. Several of the storms became severe, with reports of damaging winds across the northeast Piedmont.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
An approaching cold front from the Ohio Valley led to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across central NC in the late-afternoon and early evening hours. Several of the storms became severe, with reports of damaging winds across the northeast Piedmont.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 16, 2:53 PM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 353 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A pre-frontal trough and weak cold front will move across and offshore the southern middle Atlantic through this evening. The front will settle into and stall over SC through the weekend, while high pressure will otherwise extend from the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes to the middle Atlantic. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 PM Friday... There remains little change in forecast rationale and probability of generally scattered convection across cntl NC through this evening. While isolated, pulse-type convection will remain possible throughout cntl NC, including along outflow from initial storms over the Sandhills and srn/cntl Coastal Plain, a mix of supercells and multi-cells will tend to concentrate along a pre-frontal trough and aggregate outflow from srn VA and into nrn NC through 22-23Z. One such cell recently produced a 42 kt wind gust at South Boston, VA, while another that moved from Danville, VA into Caswell Co. NC displayed radar signatures consistent with severe hail (though none has yet been reported). These cells are occurring on the srn fringe of 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear and also peripheral to a mid- level cold pool aloft over VA, which suggests severe hail will remain a risk as those cells track into the nrn NC Piedmont. Steep, dry adiabatic low-level lapse rates and ~25C dewpoint depressions will also favor diabatically-cooled/accelerated, strong to damaging wind gusts. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023/ At the base of a longwave trough from Quebec swd and across the lwr Great Lakes and OH Valley, a vigorous nrn stream shortwave trough over wrn PA this morning will pivot east and across the nrn middle Atlantic through 12Z Sat. Associated, focused DCVA/contribution to forcing for ascent will glance nern NC the afternoon and evening, as will 35-45 kts of generally wly mid-level flow. A somewhat more complex pattern was evident at the surface and included a 1007 mb low over wrn PA, related to the aforementioned mid/upper-level feature there, with a trailing synoptic cold front extending swwd across the lwr OH and wwd across the mid MS Valley. A separate, 1006 mb lee low and outflow boundary were located over n- cntl VA, with a couple of pre-frontal/lee troughs extending swwd, one through the srn middle Atlantic Foothills, and another over the Piedmont, the latter of which remains defined as the nwrn edge of relatively richer low-level moisture that has been characterized by surface dewpoints in the mid/upr 60s in recent days. Each of those features at the surface may provide a focus for shower/storm development with strong diurnal heating/destabilization of the pre-frontal/outflow airmass into the mid 80s to lwr 90s. That heating will also contribute to vertical advection/mixing of drier air (and wly momentum) from above the surface, particularly west of the aforementioned pre-frontal trough axes; and this will tend to limit associated MLCAPE from around 750-1000 J/kg over the wrn NC Piedmont to 1500-2500 J/kg over from the NC Coastal Plain to the VA Tidewater. The greatest clustering of convection and outflow will likely occur from the lee low and outflow over cntl VA, swd and across the NC ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, where strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible. Aforementioned mid-level flow/shear will also favor a few supercells capable of severe wind gusts and hail, generally in the SPC Marginal risk area in NC and particularly points nwd through cntl and ern VA and the DelMarVA. Clearing and cooling will occur amid rising heights behind the shortwave trough and the synoptic cold front tonight, with low temperatures in the the upr 50s to lwr 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Friday... A mid/upper-level cyclone will develop and move across and offshore the nrn middle Atlantic and Northeast this period, with following height rises and generally light (and weakening with time) nwly flow aloft directed across cntl NC. Deep subsidence and dry air will result. At the surface, a front will settle into and become quasi- stationary over SC, while high pressure otherwise builds from the upr Midwest southeast and into the cntl Appalachians and middle Atlantic. The airmass behind the front over cntl NC will be drier, with widespread surface dewpoints in the 50s, but still warm with high temperatures at climo levels in mid-upper 80s. Mainly clear and calm will favor strong radiational cooling of that dry airmass, with low temperatures a category or two below average and in the mid 50s to lwr 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday... Upper ridge extending to the northeast across the Great Lakes while an upper level low over the TN valley will set up for a Rex Block pattern across the eastern US. Latest model guidance has trended a tad drier for next week, with seasonable afternoon scattered showers and storms possible each day. While Sunday looks dry, increase in clouds and moisture will continue through the entirety of next week as a frontal boundary settles to the south of us. The best chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday afternoon. Although, there is at least a slight chance of PoPs for the FA between Monday afternoon and Friday afternoon. For now, QPF totals between Monday and Tuesday, range from around half an inch in the western Piedmont to a few hundredths in areas east of I95. Winds will starts out from the southeast Monday afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph before turning to a northeasterly wind Wednesday afternoon with gusts up to 25mph. Overall, temperatures will be dropping below average by mid week with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s north, to low 60s south. By Friday, temperatures will be warming a tad to near average with highs in the low 80s north and mid 80s south. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 155 PM Friday... Scattered showers and storms will result along and ahead of a couple of pre-frontal/troughs and a cold front through this evening, with the relative greatest probability of occurrence at RWI. A drying, nwly surface wind, and clearing, will accompany the passage of the cold front this evening-early tonight, with following mainly clear and VFR conditions expected through Sat. Outlook: While there will be a chance of stratus and/or fog through the ern Carolinas, including around FAY, Mon morning, VFR conditions are otherwise expected through at least early next week. A good chance of flight restrictions and rain will likely not materialize over cntl NC until late Tue into Wed, as a mid/upper-level low settles across the Southeast. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 404 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 NCZ007>011-026>028-171200- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe- 404 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts and hail are possible this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ021>025-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-171200- Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham- Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 404 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
233 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
NCZ088-089-161915-
Sampson NC-Cumberland NC-
233 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Sampson and
southeastern Cumberland Counties through 315 PM EDT...
At 233 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jerome, or 13 miles southeast of Fayetteville, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Roseboro, Stedman, Garland, Autryville, Cedar Creek, Bushy
Lake Natural Area and Vander.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3485 7850 3485 7884 3490 7894 3503 7888
3497 7828 3476 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 274DEG 22KT 3493 7875
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NTLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
248 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
NCZ007-008-161930-
Person NC-Granville NC-
248 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Person and
northwestern Granville Counties through 330 PM EDT...
At 248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Leasburg, or 8 miles west of Roxboro, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Roxboro, Concord, Bushy Fork, Hyco Lake, Moriah, Hyco Marina, Surl
and Mayo Reservoir.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3644 7870 3623 7878 3628 7915 3653 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 296DEG 20KT 3640 7914
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
NCZ008-009-026-162100-
Franklin NC-Vance NC-Granville NC-
400 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Vance,
southeastern Granville and northwestern Franklin Counties through 500
PM EDT...
At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Creedmoor, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Louisburg, Franklinton, Kittrell and Ingleside.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3617 7869 3629 7867 3624 7813 3598 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 287DEG 30KT 3620 7859
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CAThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:03 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were reported down along the intersection of Lee Chambers Rd and Leasburg Rd.
Several trees were reported down in the towns of Efland, Mebane, and Hillsborough areas. This included a tree down on a car in Hillsborough, a tree down on a mobile home in Efland, and another tree down on the roof of a business in Efland.
Franklin County emergency management reports several trees down on cars, as well as wind damage producing a damaged shed and playground equipment, near the intersection of Cricketwood Lane and Spencers Gate Dr.
Power outages were reported due to fallen trees near the intersection of Carriage Tour Lane and Hometown Dr.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1100797, 1100798, 1100795, 1100794.