An approaching cold front supported the development of a band of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain that slowly moved east across central North Carolina during the morning and afternoon. The band of thunderstorms moved east into the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain of central North Carolina where it interacted with an increasingly humid and unstable airmass.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
An approaching cold front supported the development of a band of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain that slowly moved east across central North Carolina during the morning and afternoon. The band of thunderstorms moved east into the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain of central North Carolina where it interacted with an increasingly humid and unstable airmass. The thunderstorms intensified and some became severe with locally damaging wind gusts across the eastern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 11:00 AM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1100 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Mild and moist southwesterly flow will increase ahead of a cold front approaching from the west today. The cold front will move into the area late tonight, then cooler high pressure will follow Thursday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 935 AM Wednesday... Changes to the forecast with the morning update were minor. There is an area of rain that currently extends from the Triad east through the Triangle and over to Rocky Mount, while the primary band of rain that will move through the region extends from the Triangle south to Charlotte and southwest into South Carolina. There has been no change locally to the SPC convective risk, with all of central North Carolina under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk, and the primary threat damaging winds with an isolated tornado possible. Previous discussion follows. As of 320 AM Wednesday... Water vapor satellite showed an upper low across the Midwest, with a trailing trough digging across the Deep South. A cold front was moving east across the TN Valley, and generating showers and thunderstorms along a broken line from LA to TN. Isentropic lift was generating light rain across portions of central NC this morning. Light rain will continue at times this morning, then showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms along a line will push west to east across the region late this morning through the afternoon ahead of the approaching front and upper trough. Ample moisture will continue to be advected across the region with a strong 45-55 mph 850 mb jet. By late morning, precipitable water values will increase to 250 percent of normal. This will help showers and storms produce heavy rainfall and minor flooding as they move east. Surface dewpoints in the 60s and strong lower-level shear should be enough to generate some stronger storms today. SPC currently has all of central NC under a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with latest high- res models showing the best chance of stronger storms across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain this afternoon. Damaging winds are still the primary threat, with an isolated tornado also possible. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the line, with gusts around 25 mph expected for most of the region this afternoon. Well above normal temperatures this morning in the upper 50s and low 60s have a good chance at breaking the record high minimums (see Climate section below). Highs will range from the mid-60s NW to upper 70s SE, with KFAY having the best chance of tying or breaking the record high. A few light showers may linger behind the main line this evening, then all precipitation should exit east by late tonight as the main cold front pushes east out of the region. Some models are hinting at the possibility of dense fog tonight, however mixing may prevent this from occurring. Cooler air will slowly filter in behind the cold front tonight, with areas of the Triad dipping into the mid-40s by sunrise, while the Coastal Plain only lowers to the upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Wednesday... The upper-low over the Mid-Mississippi valley Wed will accelerate in speed Thu, reaching the northern Mid-Atlantic by Fri morning. As it does so, height falls and shortwave energy will traverse northeast across the southern Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon and early evening. Unfortunately, the moisture axis will be well offshore during this time, but 850-mb WAA will favor afternoon fair weather cu, mainly across the north. At the surface, the cold front approaching from Wed will be hung up along the Appalachians or over the far western Piedmont of NC early Thu, while a surface trough is located along the NC coast. As a result, southwest winds at times gusty will persist during the day, and although the airmass cools, temperatures are still expected to be rather mild with low 60s in the NW to the upper 60s to around 70 along/east of US-1. The cold front will move through Thu night as high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley settles into southern MS/AL. Northwest winds are forecast to remain stirred so optimal radiational cooling is not expected. But it will be noticeably cooler in the upper 30s to lower 40s under partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1100 AM Wednesday... Friday/Saturday: Flow aloft turns more wnwrly Friday through Saturday as weak upper ridging builds across the southeastern US. At the surface, high pressure from the deep south will ride northeastward along the southern Appalachians Friday through Saturday promoting mostly dry conditions across our area. However, forecast soundings continue to show some low to mid level moistening across the NC/VA border Saturday afternoon. If realized, isolated drizzle may be possible in this vicinity for a few hours. Otherwise, predominantly wnwrly flow will promote dry conditions through Saturday night. Daytime highs in this period will be a bit chillier compared to this past week, reaching the mid to upper 50s (near-normal). Calm to light winds coupled with relatively clear skies Friday night could promote good radiational cooling potential. Thus, lows are forecast to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday night. Increasing clouds Saturday night should negate decoupling potential, with a bit warmer lows in the mid to upper 30s expected across our area. Sunday through Wednesday: An upper level shortwave is expected to dig into the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region Sunday into Monday. Ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement to track a sfc low north of our area, but an associated cold front will likely push through Sunday into Monday. Ensemble probabilities for measurable rain Sunday into Monday have increased some the past few runs. Thus, decided to keep the inherited slight to chance POPs from 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday from the previous forecast. However, given mostly wnwrly flow over central NC ahead of the shortwave, the better anomalous moisture is forecast to stay north of our area. Thus, this system currently appears to be a low-end QPF event (even the ensemble 90th percentiles only pump out a few tenths to a quarter of an inch by Monday morning). Beyond Monday, a deepening upper trough may produce some upslope showers along the high terrain which could trickle into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there is considerable disagreement amongst ensemble members at this point, and thus decided to maintain dry conditions most of Tuesday, with just slight chance POPs Wednesday. Daytime highs should remain near normal from Sunday through Wednesday mostly in the mid to upper 50s (perhaps a touch warmer on Monday; cooling rend by Wednesday). Overnight lows will dip into the mid 30s over this period as well. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 630 AM Wednesday... RA and isolated TSRA are moving NE across the region this morning, then SHRA and isolated TSRA will develop and move across western areas late morning/early afternoon and continue east through the afternoon, exiting out of the region by early evening. Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times throughout the day, with MVFR conditions developing after rain ends late this evening. SW surface winds should remain between 5-10kts this morning beneath a strong low-level jet that will be located around 2-3k feet at 30-40kt. However, strong winds will persist at 2kft over all terminals through the TAF period, even strengthening to 40-50kts out of the southwest this afternoon. Looking beyond 12z Thursday, MVFR/IFR cigs and vsby are possible, especially in the east through Thursday morning. VFR conditions return by Thursday late morning. && .CLIMATE... Record Temperatures for Wednesday January 4: SITE RECORD MAX RECORD HIGH MINIMUM GSO 74/2005 57/1950 RDU 76/2005 58/1950 FAY 77/2004 60/2004 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...JJT NEAR TERM...Green/JJT SHORT TERM...Kren LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...JJT CLIMATE...RAH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1133 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 NCZ085-086-088-089-051645- Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 1133 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 ...TORNADO WATCH 14 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across the region today. Damaging winds are the primary threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ007>011-023>028-038>043-073>078-083-084-051645- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham- Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston- Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond- 1133 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across the region today. Damaging winds are the primary threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ021-022-051645- Forsyth-Guilford- 1133 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across the region today. Damaging winds are the primary threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
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</html>Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1224 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023
NCZ042-077-086-088-089-041815-
Johnston NC-Hoke NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
1224 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Sampson,
southern Harnett, Cumberland, southwestern Johnston and east central
Hoke Counties through 115 PM EST...
At 1224 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles north of Pope AFB to 7 miles southwest
of Fayetteville to near Rex. Movement was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Clinton, Lillington, Fort Bragg, Dunn, Benson, Godwin,
Pope AFB, Hope Mills and Spring Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for central North
Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3486 7893 3487 7892 3490 7894 3495 7903
3491 7910 3537 7906 3546 7863 3520 7836
3486 7836 3484 7849 3485 7850 3485 7883
3483 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 251DEG 36KT 3532 7900 3502 7901 3483 7903
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NTLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1226 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023
NCZ008-025-026-041-041815-
Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
1226 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Granville,
northern Wake, southern Durham and northwestern Franklin Counties
through 115 PM EST...
At 1225 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Durham, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Creedmoor, Wake Forest, Butner, Franklinton, RDU
International, Morrisville, Youngsville and Falls Lake State Rec
Area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.
&&
LAT...LON 3622 7851 3618 7851 3618 7849 3616 7846
3617 7845 3616 7842 3617 7842 3615 7838
3595 7842 3585 7887 3601 7897 3627 7861
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 243DEG 32KT 3597 7883
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
22The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:29 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down on the roof of a mobile home on Hancock Street.
An Aluminum carport was damaged near the intersection of Business Highway 701 and Highway 403.
One tree was reported down near the intersection of Reedy Prong Church Road and Highway 50.
Multiple trees were reported down in the Newton Grove area.
A tree was reported down near Highway 70 Alternate near Country Store Road.
Multiple trees were reported down on power lines near the intersection of Mullen Road and West Old Spring Hope Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1077673, 1077674, 1077668, 1077669, 1077670, 1077671, 1077672.