Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico combined with a dynamic frontal system to produce a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain across northeast Georgia throughout the third and into the morning of the fourth. 5 inches had fallen across much of the Piedmont.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico combined with a dynamic frontal system to produce a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain across northeast Georgia throughout the third and into the morning of the fourth. By the time the rain tapered off, 3 to 4.5 inches had fallen across much of the Piedmont. This resulted in flooding along Beaverdam Creek in Elbert County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 3:36 AM EST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 336 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread rainfall and possible thunderstorms will continue through much of the morning and early afternoon today, before tapering off as a cold front sweeps across the region and ushers in drier air tonight. Dry conditions continue through the end of the week, before increasing cloud cover and low precip chances return for the weekend. After Sunday, confidence drops steeply as an uncertain forecast sets up for next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1255 am EST: A deep mid-level vortex is forecast to stall over the upper MS River basin through today. A vigorous cold front extending south from this low center will make steady progress eastward toward the southern Appalachians through tonight, driven forward by a pair of strong short waves rotating through the upper trof, before crossing the region later today. Much of the northern half of the CWA is in the midst of a precip lull, but (mostly) light to moderate showers have returned to northeast GA and the Upstate. Chances for more robust and possibly severe convection remain very low for the next few hours, but should begin to ramp up from the west and southwest toward daybreak as air mass recovery and weak destabilization occur ahead of the front working its way in from the SW. Hydro concerns will also begin to increase steadily during that time, but flooding issues should be localized enough to preclude a Flood Watch. The approaching cold front will reach the spine of the southern Appalachians late this morning and then cross the region through late day. The 18Z run of the NAM shows a favorable overlap of 500-1000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE and deep layer shear on the order of 45 kt...which is corroborated by the 21Z RAP. Hodographs elongate in the morning with the passage of a 50+ kt low level jet, and look...compelling. As we like to say...we've done more with less. The Day 2 Convective Outlook indicates a Marginal Risk east of the mtns, and CAMs continue to depict varying degrees of rotating storms along/S of the I-85 corridor through the morning and early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 129 AM EST Wednesday: A dry short term for GSP as we dispense with the last of the DPVA associated with a broad upper low over Quebec. Drying continues in the wake of a robust frontal zone shifting off to the east, as WNW 850mb flow supports ongoing cold/dry advection across the Carolinas. Don't expect this to be terribly potent...as cross-isotherm component of flow will be less-than-impressive...but should be enough to enough to facilitate a solid 10-degree drop in temperatures across the CWA. So, expect temps to be near-normal again by Thursday night and Friday. Can't rule out some spotty NW flow snow showers in favored upslope zones along the NC-TN border mainly before daybreak on Friday. This is supported by successive SREF and GEFS cycles, but accumulations should be negligible since it now looks like the more potent CAA won't arrive until Friday afternoon and beyond, when profiles even in the mountain valleys will be increasingly sapped of good moisture content. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1259 AM EST Tuesday: Deep layer NWly flow will continue the first part of Saturday as a period of weak ridging sets in behind the retreating upper low. Guidance depicts a sharpening on the descending limb of the low - such that a lobe of DPVA forcing passes over the forecast area Saturday night. Backing of low-level winds will produce more favorable moisture transport into the region by Saturday night as the better forcing arrives. Profiles at this point don't look especially conducive to rainfall, with varying levels of near-ground dryness that may act to inhibit better rainfall...but this will all depend on how soon the low-level flow becomes more favorable. Ensemble members are still all over the place. A sizable chunk of the GEFS membership, for example, indicates that moistening will occur too late for Saturday night's forcing to result in much rainfall at all, and instead hold off on bringing meaningful PoPs into the region until late Sunday, when a weak, ill-defined surface low begins to spin up somewhere over the Ozarks or Deep South. Either way, the environment on Sunday becomes increasingly warm sector-esque as the upper ridge axis shifts east and low-level WAA picks up. By Sunday night, ensemble guidance is in better agreement on at least scattered rain showers as the anemic surface low drifts across the Southeast. And indeed, this still looks to be an all- rain forecast, with no real cold air in place to warrant frozen p-types outside the highest elevations. For Monday and beyond...still too much uncertainty to say much. Several operational runs have a split-flow pattern developing over the central Great Plains, poised to bring additional periods of synoptic forcing into the forecast area, while many ensemble members support drier conditions. So potential outcomes run the gamut from essentially dry for Monday night onward, to periods of rain persisting into Wednesday morning. Regardless...temperatures should trend upward through Monday, reaching up to a category above climo, before falling back to near-normal values by Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: In the wake of last evening's convection... cigs are in the process of deteriorating to IFR/LIFR across the Terminal Forecast Area early this morning, and all sites should be no better than IFR by 09Z. Meanwhile, additional rounds of showers were overspreading the upstate SC terminals, and occl showers, reducing visby to MVFR, perhaps briefly IFR will continue through daybreak. After that, a more substantial area of showers w/ embedded thunderstorms will sweep across the area through the morning. The TS potential is sufficient enough to warrant a tempo for TSRA at most sites during that time frame. Otherwise, low cigs will persist before improvement begins from the west during late morning/early afternoon. All sites should see VFR conditions develop during the afternoon/evening. South winds will steadily increase toward 10 kts by daybreak, veering to the SW and increasing a bit more during the daylight hours. The potential for gusts to around 20 kts will also increase from daybreak through the afternoon. Outlook: VFR with dry conditions return by Thursday and continue into Saturday. Another moist low pressure system could affect the region late in the weekend. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...JDL SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JDL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 NCZ059-062>065-051015- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- 512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Periods of heavy rain and embedded thunder will continue through this morning and into early or mid afternoon. This will pose a risk of isolated minor flooding along small streams and low-lying areas, as well as along south- and west-facing slopes in the mountains. Any thunderstorms developing in this timeframe will be capable of producing isolated wind damage, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, and isolated brief tornadoes. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. GAZ010-017-018-026-SCZ101>106-051015- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens- Central Greenville- 512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. In addition to the threat of flash flooding, scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area this morning. Any thunderstorms developing in this timeframe will be capable of producing isolated wind damage, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, and isolated brief tornadoes. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. GAZ028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-107>109- 051015- Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville- Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Southern Greenville- Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg- 512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A line of semi-organized showers and thunderstorms will cross into the area early this morning. The thunderstorms will be capable of producing isolated damaging winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition, locally heavy to excessive rainfall is also expected, and this could result in isolated flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. NCZ035-501>510-051015- Alexander-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains- Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk- 512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this morning. Any of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and occasional cloud-to-ground lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. NCZ033-048>053-058-051015- Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- 512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. Lane
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 lightning, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Spotter reported a lightning strike ignited a house fire southeast of Toccoa.
A stream gauge on Beaverdam Creek indicated flooding developed along the basin in northern Elbert County after 3 to 4.5 inches of rain fell in less than 24 hours. Multiple, mainly unpaved roads were flooded along the stream from Bowman through Dewy Rose into areas just north of Elberton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1079560, 1079223.