A line of thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front across the Tennessee Valley during the afternoon of the 27th and moved into western North Carolina during the evening. A small area of wind damage was reported in Graham County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front across the Tennessee Valley during the afternoon of the 27th and moved into western North Carolina during the evening. A small area of wind damage was reported in Graham County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 2:42 PM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
242 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front will linger across our region
Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure organizes over Texas. This
storm system moves east northeast from Texas Wednesday then reaches
our area on Friday bringing the potential for severe weather. The
low pressure and associated strong cold front moves over the
Atlantic on Saturday with cool and dry high pressure in control of
our weather through the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Monday: A compact, vigorous shortwave trough
will track across the southern Great Lakes tonight, bringing some
subtle height falls across the region. An associated deep sfc low
as analyzed over northern IL, with a warm front extending to the
southeast, linking up with a residual wedge front across the center
of the forecast area. A windy warm sector encompasses much of the
OH and TN valleys. A weakening cold front will quickly cross the
TN Valley this aftn and push across the forecast area tonight. Low
stratus and some fog associated with the residual wedge are slow
to mix out over the NC Piedmont and far eastern SC Piedmont,
but should mostly erode by the end of the day. Meanwhile, copious
clouds are streaming in from the west, putting a cap on insolation
and destabilization. There is about 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across
the central TN Valley, with a broken line of showers ahead of
the cold front. This activity may produce a few lightning strikes
as it enters the CWFA this evening, but the severe threat looks
very low, as the convection enters less unstable air. Not much
change in the overall thinking, with likely to categorical PoPs
will track with the line late aftn thru the evening. Meanwhile,
a 50-kt SWLY LLJ will enter the NC mountains thru the aftn hours,
resulting potential advisory-level gusts above 3500 ft.
Later this evening, convection will exit to the east, while
the cold front largely washes out. It will usher in strong 850
mb CAA across the mountains, with flow veering to westerly and
possibly reaching 60 kt. A cross-section over Avery County shows
a mountain wave signature, where some of that flow may reach the
surface in lower elevations. A few trees and power lines may be
knocked down in these areas tonight, before winds start to weaken
early Tuesday morning. So a High Wind Warning was issued for the
Northern Mountains and an Advisory for the adjacent escarpment
zones from 00z to 14z Tuesday. Winds will weaken elsewhere, but
should remain high enough to preclude any fog development. Lows
will be around 15 to 20 deg above normal.
Tuesday, conditions will quiet down, as dry deep-layer zonal flow
sets up atop the region. The day will start out warm, and with a
downslope flow and sunny skies, temps will rebound to near daily
records east of the mountains (see Climate section below). Highs
ranging from 10-15 deg above normal in the mountains to 15-20 deg
above normal east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Monday: Quasi-zonal flow aloft with a broad
surface high will settle over the East Coast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Surface high will gradually shift offshore
during the daytime period Wednesday as the flow aloft picks up
a west-southwesterly component and a southwesterly return flow
from the Gulf at the surface. An approaching frontal system will
push in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday as insentropic
lift develops out ahead of the system. PoPs will quickly ramp up
Wednesday evening/night as the surface low shifts from the Great
Lakes region into the northeastern CONUS and slides a frontal
boundary into the CFWA under good upper divergence support. Model
guidance depict this frontal boundary somewhat stalling over the
CFWA through the end of the period. In this case, a low-end hydro
threat may be in store as PoPs remain elevated to categorical/likely
ranges under high PWAT values (1.00"-1.50+") through 00Z Friday.
Operational models and GEFS plumes even place a couple hundred J/kg
of SBCAPE across portions of the CFWA Thursday afternoon/evening, so
a low-end severe threat could be in store if this trend continues,
but guidance also depicts a lull in precip during this time, so this
development is wishy-washy. Temperatures will continue to run well-
above normal as values will be 15-20 degrees above normal for much
of the short-term.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday: A lull in precip may occur Thursday
afternoon/evening as the quasi-stationary boundary undergoes
warm frontal activation over the Southeast, ahead of a strong
surface low riding along the boundary over the Ark-La-Tex region
as it quickly strengthens through cyclogenesis. As the warm front
lifts northward through the CFWA, better QPF response and PoPs will
return to likely/categorical values by Thursday night. As the parent
low lifts into the Midwest Thursday night into Friday, a strong cold
front will encroach the region. This front will be strongly forced
as a negatively tilted upper trough swings from the Four Corners
region Thursday into the the heart of the country by Friday with
great upper divergence settling over the Southeast on the leeside of
the upper trough. With the CFWA strictly under a warm sector regime
and the latest GEFS plumes placing 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in
locations outside of the mountains to go along with great deep layer
shear and SRH values, expect the potential for a severe threat to be
in the works. This setup would support the development of a squall
line along this boundary, while mini-supercells should form out ahead
of the front. In this case, all three severe hazards will be
possible with damaging straight-line winds and a few embedded
tornadoes being the main focus. The severe threat should end by
Friday night, but with the fropa occurring during peak heating
Friday and environmental parameters appearing in model guidance with
values we haven't seen in a while is a cause for concern, even with
the event being 4-5 days out. We urge everyone to continue
monitoring the forecast leading up to Thursday and Friday as it will
change between now and then, but the run-to-run consensus between
all operational models and ensembles makes it hard to believe that
there won't be at least a low-end severe threat across the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia. A low-end hydro threat will be
possible as well on Friday, but is definitely the secondary threat,
especially when considering the forward progression of this system.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the work week.
The cold front will quickly shift offshore by the start of the
upcoming weekend. Expect stout dry air entrainment behind the front
as a broad surface high gradually pushes in from the west. High
pressure will remain in control through the end of the forecast
period as the flow aloft becomes more quasi-zonal. Temperatures
will return to near-normal values, but may end up a few ticks
above as height falls don't appear to be very substantial.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An area of IFR stratus as mostly lifted to
MVFR across the NC Piedmont, with a gap where clouds have mixed
out across the central Upstate and eastern SC Piedmont. The latest
thinking is that the gap will help get cigs to VFR over CLT by
19-20z, but there is a chance the cigs remain MVFR. Upstream, a
broad area of MVFR cigs are working into the Upstate, and expect
cigs of 2500-3500 FT thru the aftn and early evening. Winds will
pick up out of the SW and become gusty. A cold front will bring an
area of showers in from the west late aftn thru early evening. Timed
TEMPO groups at all sites based on the latest HRRR timing,
generally 22z-02z time frame. Cannot rule out isolated embedded
TS, but due to lack of instability, will keep just SHRA mention
in the 18z TAFs. Winds will only veer slightly and remain SWLY
behind the front this evening, with potential for strongest gusts
across the Piedmont sites, up to about 25 kt. Cigs are expected
to lift to VFR behind the front, then clear out overnight. Winds
will become lighter and lose gustiness during the pre-dawn hours,
except lingering into Tuesday morning at KAVL. Quiet conditions
are expected by the end of the TAF period, with light WSW to WNW
wind and clear skies.
Outlook: Dry high pressure remains over the region on Tuesday,
and VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Another front
will approach from the west late in the week, bringing increasing
clouds and rain chances starting Thursday. The front is expected
to cross the area Friday, and may bring strong storms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 02-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 77 1918 26 1941 58 1948 13 1935
1896 1934
1906
KCLT 78 2011 29 1934 61 1890 14 2002
1962
1948
KGSP 77 1961 35 1934 59 1997 16 2002
RECORDS FOR 03-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2006 31 1920 55 1997 10 1914
KCLT 82 1918 36 1980 60 2017 15 1980
1969
1927
KGSP 80 1918 30 1934 60 2012 19 1906
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 7 PM EST this evening for
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064.
High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday
for NCZ033-049-050.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
NCZ501-503-505.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-502- 504-506>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-282100- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg- Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk- Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville- Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg- 355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A low pressure system moving by to our northwest on Friday is expected to push a strong cold front across our region, most likely in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain showers may start to build over or near the region as early as Wednesday night and continue at times through Friday. Current expectations are that enough instability and wind shear will be available by Friday to raise the threat for strong thunderstorms, with all forms of severe weather possible. However, details remain uncertain regarding the timing and location of the more significant threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>064-282100- Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon- Southern Jackson-Transylvania- 355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE 3500 FEET... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the central and southern mountains of western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A low pressure system moving by to our northwest on Friday is expected to push a strong cold front across our region, most likely in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain showers may start to build over or near the region as early as Wednesday night and continue at times through Friday. Current expectations are that enough instability and wind shear will be available by Friday to raise the threat for strong thunderstorms, with all forms of severe weather possible. However, details remain uncertain regarding the timing and location of the more significant threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ033-049-050-282100- Avery-Yancey-Mitchell- 355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE 3500 FEET... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. High Wind Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. In addition, a low pressure system moving by to our northwest on Friday is expected to push a strong cold front across our region, most likely in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain showers may start to build over or near the region as early as Wednesday night and continue at times through Friday. Current expectations are that enough instability and wind shear will be available by Friday to raise the threat for strong thunderstorms, with all forms of severe weather possible. However, details remain uncertain regarding the timing and location of the more significant threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ501-503-505-282100- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- 355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for mountain portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties in western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. In addition, a low pressure system moving by to our northwest on Friday is expected to push a strong cold front across our region, most likely in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain showers may start to build over or near the region as early as Wednesday night and continue at times through Friday. Current expectations are that enough instability and wind shear will be available by Friday to raise the threat for strong thunderstorms, with all forms of severe weather possible. However, details remain uncertain regarding the timing and location of the more significant threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. HG
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:49 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
County comms reported multiple trees blown down along Santeetlah Rd and along Snowbird Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1083567.