Scattered thunderstorms near a frontal boundary produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of northeast North Carolina.
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The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms near a frontal boundary produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of northeast North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 27, 2:55 PM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 355 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain stalled immediately south of the forecast area tonight and will slowly lift north through Tuesday leading to continued periods of unsettled conditions. A cold front eventually crosses the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to track off the Carolina coast later this week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... GOES water vapor channels depict a broad trough from the Great Lakes to New England this afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper ridge axis extents NE from the Gulf of Mexico to off the Southeast coast. This is resulting in WSW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic region, with a shortwave trough lagging back over KY/TN. At the surface, a frontal boundary extends from NE SC across eastern NC and into NE NC, with a surface trough over the Piedmont. 1020mb high pressure is centered across the Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms have developed in vicinity of the surface boundaries this afternoon, primarily across interior NE NC and the Piedmont. Temperatures are generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s in areas of partial clearing. The surface high builds east this evening and ridges in from the NNE. This should keep the surface boundary suppressed S of the area this evening, with the best chc of showers (30-50%) and a few tstms from the SW Piedmont counties into interior NE NC. The boundary begins to nudge N later tonight as some shortwave approaches from the W. PoPs increase to 30-50% from the Piedmont across s-central and SE VA. Warm and humid tonight with lows ranging from the upper 60s NW to the mid 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... The surface boundary continues to slowly nudge northward Monday as shortwave energy slides over the region aloft. Additionally, the boundary will be underneath the southwestern periphery of a ~100kt upper jet core from New England to Atlantic Canada. PW values from the 12z/27 GEFS/EPS are on the order of 2.1- 2.3" with individual deterministic models even higher. Therefore, some locally heavy rain is definitely possible with rich moisture and forcing aloft, and the 12z/27 HREF has 30-50% probs for 3"/3hr in vicinity of the boundary from central to SE VA and NE NC. No flood watch will be issued at this time given dry antecedent conditions and low streamflow. However, targeted flood watches for urban locations may be needed closer to the event. Mostly cloudy overcast Monday with highs ranging from the mid/upper 70s NW to the lower/mid 80s SE. Remaining unsettled into Monday night with the boundary remaining over the area and gradually pivoting to the NW. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s N to to the lower 70s SE. Still unsettled Tuesday as the boundary shifts NW and settles more over the Piedmont. Models continue to show Hurricane Franklin lifting N well offshore of the SE coast but getting shunted farther offshore by a departing trough and cold front Tuesday/Wednesday. Drying out somewhat (especially NW) Wednesday behind the cold front. Highs Tuesday range from the upper 70s/around 80F NW to the mid/upper 80s SE. Lows Tuesday night range from the upper 60s NW to the lower 70s SE. Highs Wednesday are mainly in the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... The extended period may remain unsettled as late as Wed night/early Thursday and into Friday depending on the exact track of TS Idalia. The latest 27/12z ECMWF/GFS still have decent agreement with respect to Idalia lifting N through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night/Wednesday. The models then diverge a bit Thursday and beyond with respect to track and timing with the ECMWF moving the system off the SC/NC coast due to strong high pressure to the north, while the GFS allows the (weakening) system to go a little further north and inland, and is slower than the ECMWF. For now will follow the blends due to the uncertainty, keeping chc PoPs in the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday (S and SE), and into Friday as well as the 27/12z GEFS/EPS means spread some QPF farther N (although the 12z runs have a sharper gradient and lower values than the 00z means). This will of course be subject to change as the models get a better handle on the pattern. Drier conditions and warming temperatures are then expected by next weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Sunday... A frontal boundary extends from NE SC across eastern NC as of 18z, with high pressure centered well NW of the region over the Great Lakes. This is resulting in an ENE wind of 8-12kt and considerable cloud cover with VFR bases of 5-10kft. Scattered showers and a few tstms extend from interior NE NC to central VA. VFR conditions should prevail this aftn through most of tonight under a mostly cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy sky. The only exception would be brief restrictions this aftn in heavy rain if a direct impact of a shower/tstm were to occur at any given terminal. The frontal boundary begins to slowly lift N late tonight into Monday. MVFR cigs are possible late tonight, especially at RIC, ORF, PHF, and ECG, with IFR cigs likely developing at these sites Monday morning. Showers and a few tstms are expected to increase in coverage Monday, with occasional IFR vsby possible in heavy rain. Unsettled conditions with a higher chc for showers, and few tstms, and flight restrictions continue Monday night into Tuesday. Somewhat improved conditions are expected Wednesday. There is a chc of rain by Thursday/Friday depending on the exact track of TS Idalia. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... Latest sfc analysis reveals a stationary boundary draped across coastal NC, just to the south of local waters, with high pressure building in behind it. Hurricane Franklin is well offshore from the Bahamas and is still projected to pass well SE of of the Mid- Atlantic coast, tracking just N of Bermuda once it turns NE. Also, TD10 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Idalia this morning just SE of the Yucatan Peninsula. Latest obs show easterly winds generally around 10kt, though a bit breezier in the lower Bay/lower James at 12-15kt with a few gusts up to 20kt. Seas are 2-3ft and waves are 1- 2ft. Conditions remain fairly similar through the night, though could become gusty in the lower Bay around sunrise. Tomorrow, the stalled front will slowly start to drift north, bringing unsettled conditions. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected through the day. Easterly winds will be 10-15kt. With the continued onshore flow, seas will build to 4ft for coastal waters N of Cape Charles Light through the afternoon, likely staying around 3ft for southern waters. The front will continue to gradually lift NW into the local area Tues. Winds become lighter and generally stay onshore Tuesday, then variable for Wednesday as they flip around to the N by Wed evening. Swell from Hurricane Franklin is set to arrive Tues, though, so SCAs are likely to start by Tues morning. Seas will build to 5-6ft (7ft at 20nm) by Tues evening. The swell will likely cause seas to remain elevated through Wednesday. Attention then turns to Idalia for the late week period. Current forecast has a Tropical Storm passing to the south of the local area. However, with strong high pressure to the north, there is the potential for elevated gradient winds. Given uncertainty with the storm track, going to stick with blended guidance for now. This yields NE winds 20-23kt sustained with gusts 25-30kt (strongest over southern coastal waters) Thursday- Friday morning. There will be a high rip current risk for northern beaches tomorrow and moderate risk for southern beaches. Elevated rip current risk is likely through the week given the combo of onshore flow, arriving swell, and increased winds late in the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 427 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 MDZ021>024-VAZ064-075>078-084>086-517>522-280830- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Caroline-Westmoreland- Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 427 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and north central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will result in unsettled conditions into the early to middle part the week. There will be an increased threat for localized heavy rain and the potential for flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ025-VAZ099-100-280830- Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton- 427 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will result in unsettled conditions into the early to middle part the week. There will be an increased threat for localized heavy rain and the potential for flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ012>017-030>032-280830- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans- 427 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms today may produce heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. In addition, a few storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will result in unsettled conditions into the early to middle part the week. There will be an increased threat for localized heavy rain and the potential for flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ102-280830- Eastern Currituck- 427 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK. Showers and thunderstorms today may produce heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. In addition, a few storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will result in unsettled conditions into the early to middle part the week. There will be an increased threat for localized heavy rain and the potential for flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>083-087>090-092-093-095>097-509>516- 523>525-280830- Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg- Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George- Charles City-New Kent-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City- Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 427 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms today may produce heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will result in unsettled conditions into the early to middle part the week. There will be an increased threat for localized heavy rain and the potential for flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VAZ098-280830- Virginia Beach- 427 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK. Showers and thunderstorms today may produce heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will result in unsettled conditions into the early to middle part the week. There will be an increased threat for localized heavy rain and the potential for flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:06 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Widespread flash flooding was reported county-wide.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1135662.