A weak disturbance moved through Central New York and kicked off isolated thunderstorms. Due to clearing of skies and daytime heating, the environment became unstable enough to support one severe thunderstorm in Sullivan County.
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The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
A weak disturbance moved through Central New York and kicked off isolated thunderstorms. Due to clearing of skies and daytime heating, the environment became unstable enough to support one severe thunderstorm in Sullivan County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 5:44 AM EST, 5 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms most of this week, with the exception being Wednesday. Hot and humid weather is expected to arrive mid-week, before a cold front moves through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 315 AM Update: High pressure moves in at the surface today, but a weak shortwave swings through this afternoon and into this evening. Overall, the forcing looks weak, but some decent instability will build through the max heating hours this afternoon and showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected. With the loss of daytime heating, shower and thunderstorm activity should quickly diminish by this evening. Partial clearing is also expected with more patchy fog possible. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 60s once again. Strong warm air advection really starts to pick up on Wednesday on SW return flow. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop, but no severe thunderstorms are expected at this time as wind shear will remain light. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update... This period will be hot and humid with a couple chances for showers and thunderstorms. A surface low will pass across eastern Great Lakes and into the region late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Instability will be quite limited during the overnight hours, though shear will be around 30s kts, so thunderstorms cannot be ruled out prior to sunrise. Otherwise, it will be just rain showers until late in the morning. The center of this system will pass through northern NY as it quickly moves through Thursday, bringing showers and storms across the region. Mostly cloudy skies could limit daytime heating and instability, so there is some uncertainty if conditions will be favorable for stronger storms. With a strong LLJ, warm cloud depths of 10k+ ft, and PWATs nearing 2 inches, the greatest hazard will be heavy rainfall. By late Thursday night, this system will exit the region. High pressure with drier air then moves in, leading to a dry end to the work week. Currently temperatures are forecasted to reach the upper 80s to low 90s on Thursday. Heat indices will easily be in the 90s in the lower elevations. Due to showers and cloud cover, there is some uncertainty with how warm it will be. As heights continue to increase later in the week, Friday has the potential to be the warmest day of the month. Highs will be near or exceed 90 across the region with heat indices possibly exceeding 100. The AC will not have a chance to rest during the overnight hours as temps will only fall in the mid 60s to low 70s during the second half of the week. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 345 AM Update... A weak shortwave within mostly zonal flow will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Temperatures will remain warm, but do trend cooler as a frontal boundary will drop south and bring some relief to the region. Highs will range from upper 70s to upper 80s, with the warmest temps in the lower elevations across NEPA. There will be a slight chance for showers and storms Sunday as a broad upper-level trough passes through. Else, high pressure will build in and bring dry conditions to finish out the weekend and start next week. For those that prefer cooler summers, this forecast period will have the perfect temperatures with highs mostly staying in the 70s and lows in the 50s and maybe even upper 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fog will dissipate by mid morning, then mostly VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. There is a small chance for some showers and thunderstorms to again develop Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Finally, valley fog will likely develop again late tonight with restrictions expected at ELM. Outlook... Wednesday...Late night/early morning valley fog possible at KELM; otherwise VFR Wednesday night through Saturday...Chance of thunderstorms and associated restrictions, especially by Friday as a front moves into the area. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...MPK
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-260715- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango- Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Warm and humid conditions are expected from Thursday into Saturday. Heat index values will likely reach the mid to upper 90s in most areas, with near 100 possible in the urban corridors. Continue to monitor for future updates through the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1222 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023
NYZ062-PAZ048-251645-
Sullivan NY-Pike PA-
1222 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Sullivan and northeastern Pike Counties through 1245 PM EDT...
At 1222 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shohola, or 11 miles northwest of Montague, moving northeast at 10
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lackawaxen, Shohola, Greeley, Highland Lake, Millrift, Eldred, Glen
Spey, Twin Lakes and Barryville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4140 7474 4134 7498 4145 7505 4157 7490
4145 7476 4143 7476 4143 7474
TIME...MOT...LOC 1622Z 243DEG 9KT 4143 7493
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
BJGThe Binghamton radar (KBGM), 127 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:42 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong thunderstorm winds knocked down wires onto the roadway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1106067.