Flash Flood and Hail in New Mexico, May 20, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1202 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023

Afternoon to evening showers and storms will remain the case this
weekend favoring western and central New Mexico today, with eastern
New Mexico getting back in the action Sunday. Shower and storm
coverage will be a little less compared to recent days. Most areas
will see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall, with amounts of around an
inch to locally higher amounts in the higher terrain and northeast
New Mexico. Flash flooding will be a concern over recent burn scars
and low lying and urban areas, along with minor river flooding at
locations with already elevated streamflows. However, the threat
will be not as great given the lower shower and storm coverage.
Drier air begins to work in from the southwest Monday spreading
across most of western and central New Mexico by mid next week. Gulf
moisture will remain across eastern New Mexico, with diurnal dryline
activity possible mid next week and beyond. High temperatures will
go from below normal readings of 10 to 20 degrees today, to near to
slightly above normal come mid next week thanks to the drier air and
less cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023

PWATs are forecast to trend downward around 0.10-0.20" from the
record and near record highs observed over the past few days,
allowing the risk of flash flooding below burn scars to lessen some.
Storms over the northern mountains could produce a quick 0.25-0.50"
of rain this afternoon and evening, while cells over the southern
tier of mountains can potentially produce a quick 0.60-0.80". A weak
upper level low pressure system will approach the Four Corners from
the upper Baja Peninsula this afternoon and evening triggering
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over central and
western parts of the forecast area, but cells producing this much
rain accumulation are expected to be isolated enough to preclude the
need for another burn scar Flood Watch for Flash Flooding. High
temperatures are forecast to warm a few to 14 degrees above
yesterday's readings, except for a few to several degrees of cooling
over the Four Corners and the southern tier of zones.

The weak upper low is forecast to meander slowly eastward along the
NM/CO border on Sunday making northern areas favored for numerous
showers and thunderstorms.  PWATS will be about the same as today's
values across the north, but are forecast to trend downward some
with a downtick in convection southwest, an potentially up to around
1 inch across our eastern plains where a southeasterly low level
return flow will develop with a significant uptick in thunderstorm
coverage and rainfall intensity.  There will be a low but continued
risk of flash flooding below burn scars of the northern and south
central mountains. High temperatures look to trend warmer areawide
on Sunday, while remaining around 3 to 12 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023

Showers and storms across northern and central NM will gradually
fizzle after sunset thanks to the loss of daytime heating, as the
baggy trough slides across the northern part of the state. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies will remain overnight with temperatures
bottoming out near typical mid May values. Changes in the pattern
begin Monday as drier air in the form of PWATs between 0.30 to 0.40
inches starts to work into southwest NM. This should help push most
of the afternoon and evening shower and storm activity to the
northern mountains and northeast NM. High temperatures will also
continue warming up closer to near average. Upper level southwest
flow becomes further established on Tuesday as a shortwave trough/
upper low digs south along the Pacific coastline. Afternoon and
evening shower and storm activity should further be confined to
northern and northeast NM, along with lower coverage. High
temperatures will continue to warm topping our near mid May
averages.

The upper level trough/low digs further south along the Pacific
coast on Wednesday with downstream upper level ridging over the high
plains. The dryline will become a prominent feature with low to
midlevel dry southwest flow over western and central NM clashing
with low level moist southeast flow over the eastern plains. Hence,
dryline storms will be possible across eastern NM each and every
afternoon beginning Wednesday, moreso Thursday and beyond. As is
typical with dryline setups, any storm that develops could become
strong to severe thanks to SBCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg and
effective bulk shear values of around 20 to 30 kts, especially
late in the week. The better effective bulk shear looks to be over
West Texas, but could shift west to parts of eastern NM,
resulting in a more favorable severe wx setup. Southwest winds
behind the dryline, across central and western NM will be breezy
at times during the afternoon hours. The overall synoptic setup
remains pretty stagnant heading into next weekend, as most
deterministic and ensemble solutions keep the upper low over the
Pacific NW with a positive tilted upper level ridge over the
Plains. High temperatures will be at to a few degrees above
average for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already well underway
over western and central NM late this morning with dry weather
forecast near the TX border. Wet microbursts associated with the
stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing erratic wind
gusts up to 50kt and small hail. Storm motion will be to the
northeast between 15-25kts. Near surface haze/smoke associated
with fires from both Canada and Mexico is expected to gradually
shift to the northeast as southwest winds aloft strengthen
somewhat this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Sat May 20 2023

Monsoon-like weather is forecast to continue through Monday with
daily rounds of wetter variety showers and thunderstorms. The risk
of burn scar flash flooding will continue each day, but with a
downtick in PWAT values that starts today it will be lower than it
has been with the record and near record high PWATs of the past few
days. Drier air is forecast to work its way over the forecast area
from the southwest with a significant downtick in thunderstorm
coverage and rainfall intensity really over southwest areas starting
Monday, but then over more of the forecast area Tuesday and
Wednesday. Daily southwesterly breezes will develop over western and
central areas Wednesday into the latter part of the week, but the
dryline may be quite active with wetting thunderstorms on the
eastern plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  70  48  74  50 /  60  30  50  20
Dulce...........................  63  41  66  38 /  70  40  80  30
Cuba............................  64  43  67  45 /  70  50  70  40
Gallup..........................  69  41  71  43 /  60  60  50  30
El Morro........................  66  39  67  44 /  80  60  70  30
Grants..........................  67  40  69  40 /  80  60  70  30
Quemado.........................  69  41  71  43 /  80  40  70  30
Magdalena.......................  67  46  70  48 /  80  60  60  30
Datil...........................  65  41  69  45 /  80  30  60  30
Reserve.........................  73  44  74  40 /  70  50  40  10
Glenwood........................  76  50  78  53 /  60  50  40  10
Chama...........................  59  37  60  37 /  70  40  80  50
Los Alamos......................  64  45  67  49 /  60  60  80  50
Pecos...........................  63  43  67  45 /  50  40  80  50
Cerro/Questa....................  62  40  62  45 /  60  50  90  40
Red River.......................  53  35  54  38 /  60  50  90  50
Angel Fire......................  60  37  59  34 /  60  30  90  60
Taos............................  66  41  67  40 /  50  40  80  30
Mora............................  62  41  63  40 /  50  20  90  50
Espanola........................  70  48  72  49 /  40  40  70  40
Santa Fe........................  65  45  68  48 /  50  50  80  50
Santa Fe Airport................  68  45  71  47 /  40  40  70  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  51  73  55 /  50  50  60  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  72  52  75  53 /  50  50  50  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  74  53  77  53 /  50  50  50  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  72  52  75  54 /  50  40  60  40
Belen...........................  74  51  78  50 /  60  50  50  30
Bernalillo......................  72  51  75  53 /  40  40  60  40
Bosque Farms....................  74  51  78  50 /  60  50  50  30
Corrales........................  72  52  75  53 /  50  40  60  40
Los Lunas.......................  74  51  78  50 /  60  50  50  30
Placitas........................  70  49  73  53 /  40  50  60  40
Rio Rancho......................  71  51  74  53 /  50  40  60  40
Socorro.........................  75  53  77  53 /  70  60  50  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  45  68  49 /  50  50  60  40
Tijeras.........................  67  47  71  50 /  50  50  60  40
Edgewood........................  66  45  70  44 /  50  40  60  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  67  44  72  40 /  50  40  50  40
Clines Corners..................  63  45  68  44 /  40  40  50  40
Mountainair.....................  66  45  70  45 /  60  40  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  67  47  71  45 /  70  50  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  70  50  75  53 /  70  60  50  30
Ruidoso.........................  60  46  66  48 /  70  40  60  30
Capulin.........................  65  45  65  44 /  30  30  80  30
Raton...........................  69  46  71  43 /  40  30  80  30
Springer........................  70  46  73  44 /  30  20  80  40
Las Vegas.......................  63  43  68  44 /  30  30  80  40
Clayton.........................  71  50  74  51 /   5  20  70  50
Roy.............................  66  48  72  48 /  20  30  80  50
Conchas.........................  73  54  81  51 /  10  10  60  50
Santa Rosa......................  69  52  77  50 /  10  20  60  50
Tucumcari.......................  75  55  80  52 /   5  10  50  60
Clovis..........................  73  53  76  53 /  10  10  40  50
Portales........................  74  54  77  53 /  10  10  40  50
Fort Sumner.....................  72  54  79  52 /  10  10  50  50
Roswell.........................  71  58  81  58 /  20  20  50  20
Picacho.........................  63  51  73  50 /  50  20  60  20
Elk.............................  60  48  69  48 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...33