Flood in New Mexico, May 2 to 10, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 AM MDT Tue May 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue May 2 2023

Afternoon thunderstorm activity will develop along the central
mountain chain this afternoon. Storms will generally track east to
northeast toward the CO and TX borders. Less storm coverage is
expected over the Rio Grande Valley, with near zero precipitation
chances from the Continental Divide westward. Cloud-to-ground
lightning with little to no rainfall and erratic gusty winds will
accompany any cell over the Rio Grande Valley, with the threat of
isolated hail and damaging winds over east-central NM. Another
round of afternoon and evening storms favors the eastern half of
the state Wednesday. Dry, warm, and stronger prevailing winds take
hold Thursday afternoon, staying true Friday and into the weekend.
Low chances for precipitation along the CO border this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue May 2 2023

An unseasonably deep 542dm H5 low spinning over San Francisco this
morning will continue spreading mid level moisture northward into NM
today. Surface dewpoints are in the 20s and 30s across much of the
region early this morning and weak low level return flow will allow
values to rise only slightly thru the day. The combination of strong
daytime heating, ascent ahead of the upper low, and orographics will
allow high-based showers and storms to develop near the high terrain
then spread N/NE into nearby highlands and plains. NAM/GFS PW values
rise to near 0.60" at KABQ by the afternoon which is more likely a
result of top-down moistening than any low level moisture advection.
DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg within central NM will support strong
and erratic downburst wind gusts. Wetting precip may occur in a few
lucky spots along the central mt chain with better chances over the
eastern plains. The latest SPC day 1 convective outlook expanded the
Marginal Risk area along the TX/NM border where the better low level
moisture and instability will be present late today.

SHRA/TS will end from west to east this evening as a mid level dry
slot punches northeast across the region. Min temps will trend a few
degrees cooler with drier air, clearing skies, and lighter winds.
Wednesday will feature another round of high-based SHRA/TS farther
to the east with gusty southwest winds across central and western
NM. A few more strong storms are possible near the TX/NM border as
better low level remains in place. Max temps will trend a couple
degrees warmer areawide with readings a few degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue May 2 2023

The last remnants of relatively wetter weather ends Thursday
morning to start the long term period. A vort max tracking
northeastward around the eastern periphery of an upper low
centered over central CA will advect a plume of mid-to-upper level
moisture from the EPAC into NM. This plume looks to produce some
level of shower activity across the state Thursday morning, with
deterministic model runs differing on coverage. Despite there
being an upper level disturbance and enough moisture, timing of
this system being in the morning outside of diurnal heating will
inhibit any convective potential. Any precipitation amounts look
to be rather light shower activity, only a few hundredths. A dry
slot will be hot on its heels and fill in southwest to northeast
through NM Thursday afternoon. Breezy to windy southwest winds
fill in, gusting 30 to 50 mph with the strongest speeds focused
through east-central and northeastern NM. Friday sees continued
dry, warm, and windy conditions with southwest flow aloft becoming
the dominant weather driver.

A dry southwest flow regime looks to hold true Saturday. There are
differences between deterministic runs of global models. The ECMWF
advertises a weak trough crossing the state that is able to
produce light precipitation near the CO border, whereas the GFS
maintains nearly unperturbed southwest flow with no shower
potential along the CO border. The main forecast message of dry,
warm, and windy most areas holds true. The GFS takes an upper
trough over the Four Corners region by Sunday. So the forecast
maintains a generic mention of low PoPs over northern NM Sunday as
a result. Most areas remain dry in either scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Tue May 2 2023

Widespread mid and high cloud cover expected to persist throughout
the aftn most terminals. High-based SHRA/TS are expected from the
Cont Div ewd aft 02/19Z with strong and erratic downbursts to 45
kts possible. Stronger storms capable of severe wind gusts will
favor the far ern plains near the NM/TX border thru 03/04Z.
Convective activity will generate ely canyon gap winds at KABQ
this evening aft 03/00Z, with gusts around 35 kts. Cloud cover
will begin to clear out during the evening and overnight hours
from west to east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue May 2 2023

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THURSDAY...

Abundant mid level moisture spreading north across NM today will
allow for scattered high-based showers and storms to develop within
central NM. LAL 6 storms are possible along the boundary of where
better low level moisture attempts to intersect very dry mid level
air along the central mt chain and high plains of eastern NM today.
Another round of high-based showers and storms is expected farther
east on Wednesday while drier southwest winds spread over western
NM. Marginal critical conditions are possible from the RGV westward.

A nearly stationary upper low currently over CA will eject northeast
into the Great Basin Thursday to Sunday. This may begin a prolonged
period of critical fire weather over NM. Widespread critical fire
weather conditions are possible Thursday and Friday. Any lightning
strikes from today and Wednesday could be potential wildfire starts
in areas with very dry soils and receptive fuels. More critical fire
weather conditions are possible over eastern NM Saturday and Sunday
with a larger area of single digit humidity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  45  80  51 /  10   5   5  10
Dulce...........................  67  36  74  44 /  30  20  10  10
Cuba............................  69  38  73  46 /  40  20  10  20
Gallup..........................  73  35  77  42 /  10   0   5  10
El Morro........................  71  39  71  41 /  10   5  10  20
Grants..........................  74  33  76  43 /  20  10  10  20
Quemado.........................  72  38  73  41 /   5   0   5  10
Magdalena.......................  74  44  74  48 /  20   5   5  20
Datil...........................  71  40  71  42 /  10   0   5  20
Reserve.........................  74  33  75  40 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  77  43  80  48 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  61  32  67  39 /  50  30  10  10
Los Alamos......................  69  45  73  49 /  40  30  10  20
Pecos...........................  67  42  72  47 /  60  60  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  63  38  68  45 /  60  50  10  10
Red River.......................  57  32  59  39 /  70  70  20  10
Angel Fire......................  60  28  65  41 /  70  60  20  20
Taos............................  67  34  73  45 /  50  40  10  10
Mora............................  64  39  70  46 /  60  60  20  20
Espanola........................  74  42  79  50 /  40  30   5  20
Santa Fe........................  68  45  73  49 /  60  40  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  72  40  76  49 /  60  30  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  76  52  78  54 /  40  30  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  78  50  80  55 /  30  30   5  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  46  82  55 /  30  20   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  77  48  81  55 /  30  20   5  20
Belen...........................  81  45  83  55 /  30  20   5  10
Bernalillo......................  77  46  81  54 /  40  20  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  80  42  82  55 /  30  20   5  10
Corrales........................  78  46  81  55 /  30  20   5  20
Los Lunas.......................  80  43  82  55 /  30  20   5  20
Placitas........................  75  48  79  53 /  40  20  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  76  48  79  55 /  30  20   5  20
Socorro.........................  83  48  83  55 /  20   5   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  69  44  73  49 /  50  30  10  20
Tijeras.........................  72  43  76  50 /  50  30  10  20
Edgewood........................  70  40  74  49 /  60  30  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  72  33  76  49 /  50  30  10  20
Clines Corners..................  68  39  72  48 /  60  40  20  20
Mountainair.....................  72  42  75  49 /  40  20  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  73  43  75  49 /  50  10  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  76  50  78  52 /  30  10  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  68  45  72  47 /  50  10  30  20
Capulin.........................  66  42  72  48 /  60  40  20  10
Raton...........................  70  39  76  46 /  60  40  20   5
Springer........................  71  41  78  49 /  60  50  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  67  40  73  48 /  50  50  20  20
Clayton.........................  73  48  79  55 /  30  50  20  20
Roy.............................  71  46  76  51 /  40  60  10  20
Conchas.........................  78  49  83  56 /  40  50  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  76  46  79  55 /  40  30  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  79  49  82  57 /  30  50  20  30
Clovis..........................  78  49  81  57 /  40  40  30  50
Portales........................  79  49  82  57 /  40  40  30  50
Fort Sumner.....................  80  47  82  56 /  40  40  30  30
Roswell.........................  85  53  86  58 /  40  30  40  40
Picacho.........................  76  48  78  54 /  60  20  50  30
Elk.............................  74  46  76  51 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...12