Strong to severe storms developed over the high plains of east-central and southeastern NM during the afternoon of May 19, 2023. One of these storms passed over the Lake Arthur area south of Roswell in south-central Chaves County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Strong to severe storms developed over the high plains of east-central and southeastern NM during the afternoon of May 19, 2023. One of these storms passed over the Lake Arthur area south of Roswell in south-central Chaves County. This storm produced golf ball size hail and a peak thunderstorm wind gust of 62 mph. There were no reports of damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 10:44 AM MST, 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1144 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023 The cool and wet pattern continues through the weekend, with scattered to numerous showers and storm expected during the afternoon to evening hours. A backdoor cold front will focus activity in central and southeast New Mexico today. Some storms could be strong to severe across southeast New Mexico. Shower and storm activity will shift western and central New Mexico on Saturday behind the backdoor cold front. Eastern New Mexico will be cool and mostly dry on Saturday before shower and storm activity returns areawide on Sunday ahead of weak low pressure. Drier air, ahead of a Pacific storm system, starts to slowly work in from southwest to northeast beginning Monday, more so by mid next week. This could result in potential dryline storms across eastern NM mid to late next week. Temperatures will be below normal by 10 to 20 degrees today and tomorrow, gradually warming up to near to a few degrees above normal mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023 With near record PWATs continuing today, and fairly strong forcing for precipitation due to an upper level trough tracking southeastward across the central Rockies and eventually across northeast NM, widespread showers and thunderstorms will again develop across the forecast area with pockets of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Will issue a Flash Flood Watch for the burn scars of the Jemez and Sangre de Cristo Mountains where the ground is saturated from locally heavy rainfall over the last two days. It only took 0.25-0.50" of rain to produce flash flooding on the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon Scar yesterday, and that amount could easily fall again today. It will be somewhat more stable today compared to yesterday over the northern mountains, so rain rate's probably won't be as high there; however, the lingering heavy snowpack remains a concern since a rain-on-snow situation could add to runoff from thunderstorms. The better instability for today will be found from west central to southeast parts of the forecast area, where a backdoor cold front will arrive with gusty winds during the afternoon helping to initiate more moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Will also issue a Flash Flood Watch for the recent burn scars of the south central mountains today, since the McBride and Nogal scars could see a quick 0.75-1.0" of rain. Otherwise, it will be quite cool today with high temperatures varying around 6 to 19 degrees below the 1991-2020 average for this time of year. The back door cold front will also usher a moderately strong gap wind in the central valley mainly from Santa Fe southward this afternoon and tonight. In the wake of the upper level trough on Saturday, a low pressure system that has been stalled over the upper Baja Peninsula is forecast to track northeastward toward the Four Corners. PWATs are forecast to fall between 0.5-0.80", with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms favoring central and western parts of the forecast area. Much less QPF is forecast, suggesting a decreased risk of flash flooding below burn scars. Temperatures will also rebound in most places, except northwest and southeast where readings may continue fall a bit more. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023 Like what has been typical over the last few days, showers and storms across western and central NM will gradually wind down after sunset with the loss of the daytime heating. Showers and storms will once again fire up over the high terrain midday Sunday, ahead of a weakening and broad upper level low over AZ. This low will slowly meander its way northeast towards the Four Corners late Sunday. Unlike Saturday, eastern NM will return to the shower and storm action Sunday afternoon/evening as the low/trough helps transport some warmer air and better instability in the form of SBCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg to the region. Showers and storms will wind down and move east into Texas Sunday night. Showers and storms on Monday should be lower in coverage, as the weak low moves off into the Plains with zonal flow in its wake. Additionally, drier air in the form of PWATs between 0.30 to 0.50 inches starts to work into southwest NM. This should help push most of the afternoon and evening shower and storm activity to north central and northeast NM. Drier air makes further progress to the northeast on Tuesday thanks to southwest flow ahead of a digging upper level trough over the Pacific NW. Afternoon and evening shower and storm activity should further be confined to northern and northeast NM where the higher PWATs of 0.60 to 0.80 inches reside. Meanwhile, high temperatures looks to finally get to near average Tuesday thanks to the drier southwest flow and more sunshine across the region. The trend continues into Wednesday as the upper level trough/low digs further south along the Pacific coast with afternoon and evening shower and storm activity further confined to northeast NM. Dryline storms look to become more of a concern across eastern NM mid to late next week, as the upper trough/low begins to move inland, with dry southwest flow aloft and surface southeast flow bringing in Gulf moisture across the eastern plains. Deterministic models differ in the placement of the dryline, with the GFS placing it further east over west Texas and the ECMWF having it much further west along the central mountain chain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023 A mixed bag of VFR to MVFR conditions prevail across northern and central NM with numerous showers, isolated thunderstorms and areas of mountain obscurations. MVFR conditions are likely in/near showers and storms today, but short-lived IFR conditions are possible. A gusty east canyon wind will develop later this afternoon or evening at KABQ, but speeds are forecast to remain below Aviation Weather Warning threshold at this time. Deterioration is forecast overnight, along with widespread mountain obscurations. KSAF, KROW and KLVS are forecast to deteriorate to IFR overnight, with slow to no improvement Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023 Monsoon-like weather is forecast to continue through at least the weekend with daily rounds of wetter variety showers and thunderstorms. The greatest risk of locally heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding will be today, then a Baja low will gradually meander northeastward over the Four Corners during the weekend with continued precipitation but less QPF. A moist backdoor cold front is also forecast to dive southwestward through the forecast area today with east wind gusts potentially reaching up to 45 mph below canyons opening into the central valley from Santa Fe southward this afternoon and evening. Early next week, drier air has been forecast to work its way over western and central NM with less thunderstorm activity, except for an active dryline on the eastern plains. However, recent model runs suggest the arrival of the drier air may be delayed until Tuesday with some moisture and a fairly active day of convection lingering on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 77 52 73 51 / 50 60 40 30 Dulce........................... 67 44 66 40 / 70 80 70 30 Cuba............................ 65 43 67 45 / 80 70 60 40 Gallup.......................... 72 43 72 42 / 60 60 60 30 El Morro........................ 65 44 67 44 / 80 70 70 30 Grants.......................... 68 43 69 40 / 80 80 70 30 Quemado......................... 68 43 71 44 / 90 50 60 30 Magdalena....................... 67 48 68 49 / 80 90 70 50 Datil........................... 66 44 67 46 / 90 70 70 40 Reserve......................... 72 40 74 40 / 80 30 50 20 Glenwood........................ 77 48 79 52 / 70 20 50 20 Chama........................... 60 40 61 37 / 80 80 80 40 Los Alamos...................... 59 46 65 49 / 90 70 60 40 Pecos........................... 58 43 64 46 / 90 80 60 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 40 62 46 / 90 60 70 30 Red River....................... 47 36 54 40 / 100 70 80 40 Angel Fire...................... 52 35 61 36 / 100 70 60 30 Taos............................ 61 41 67 41 / 90 60 60 20 Mora............................ 54 41 63 40 / 100 80 50 30 Espanola........................ 67 47 73 49 / 90 60 50 30 Santa Fe........................ 60 46 66 49 / 80 80 60 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 44 69 48 / 60 80 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 53 72 55 / 80 70 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 53 74 53 / 90 70 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 52 77 53 / 90 70 50 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 52 74 54 / 80 70 50 40 Belen........................... 76 52 77 51 / 90 80 60 40 Bernalillo...................... 70 52 74 53 / 80 80 50 40 Bosque Farms.................... 75 50 77 50 / 90 70 60 40 Corrales........................ 71 51 75 54 / 80 70 50 40 Los Lunas....................... 75 50 77 51 / 90 70 60 40 Placitas........................ 66 51 71 54 / 80 80 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 69 52 73 53 / 80 70 50 40 Socorro......................... 77 53 78 53 / 70 90 60 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 45 66 49 / 80 80 50 40 Tijeras......................... 64 47 68 49 / 80 80 50 40 Edgewood........................ 62 46 67 44 / 80 80 50 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 43 68 41 / 80 80 40 40 Clines Corners.................. 59 43 64 44 / 70 80 40 30 Mountainair..................... 66 46 69 45 / 80 70 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 68 47 70 46 / 80 70 60 50 Carrizozo....................... 75 52 73 53 / 70 60 60 50 Ruidoso......................... 67 45 65 46 / 70 60 70 50 Capulin......................... 53 40 65 43 / 90 50 20 20 Raton........................... 60 42 69 43 / 90 60 30 20 Springer........................ 61 44 70 43 / 90 70 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 57 43 65 44 / 100 70 40 20 Clayton......................... 59 45 70 48 / 90 30 10 10 Roy............................. 59 46 66 48 / 90 60 20 10 Conchas......................... 67 49 73 51 / 90 60 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 66 49 69 49 / 80 60 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 68 48 74 52 / 70 50 10 10 Clovis.......................... 72 49 72 52 / 70 30 10 10 Portales........................ 74 51 73 51 / 60 30 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 73 51 72 51 / 70 40 10 20 Roswell......................... 84 58 75 58 / 50 50 30 20 Picacho......................... 73 51 67 50 / 60 50 60 30 Elk............................. 72 48 64 47 / 50 50 60 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ211-214-215-226. && SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...11
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 29 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:39 UTC.
1 funnel cloud, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
There was a tweet about a cold air funnel seen just south of the Ojito Wildnerness on May 19, 2023. The funnel was said to have lasted 5 to 10 minutes.
Thunderstorm wind gust to 62 mph reported near Lake Arthur.
A trained spotter reported nickel to golf ball size hail.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1093023, 1088616, 1088617.