The combination of a cold front moving south and moderate to strong instability resulted in scattered thunderstorms across the Concho Valley and Heartland. A few storms were severe with large hail and damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The combination of a cold front moving south and moderate to strong instability resulted in scattered thunderstorms across the Concho Valley and Heartland. A few storms were severe with large hail and damaging winds. Also, flash flooding due to torrential rainfall was reported in San Angelo during the evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 3:19 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 419 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL... Issued at 419 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Visible satellite trends show agitated cumulus/towering cumulus along an arc shaped dry-line configuration that stretches from around Mertzon east to near Brady, then south through Mason and then west-southwest through Sonora, with some storms having developed on the eastern edge of this arc across McCulloch and Mason counties. SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability east of the dry-line (ML CAPE of generally 1500-2000 J/K, and likely to increase to 3000 J/KH within a few hours as good moisture advection brings in surface dewpoints into the low 70s), with no convective inhibition (i.e. no capping inversion). Most hi-res models indicate that additional storm development is likely along and near the dry-line in the Concho Valley, Southern Heartland, and Northwest Hill Country over the next few hours. Effective shear of 30-35 kt is sufficient for supercells, and straight hodograph (which is a tool that analyzes the wind direction/speed through the atmosphere) indicate that splitting supercells is a favored. Deep layer mean winds and anvil level winds oriented along most of the dry-line (except the eastern edge) and lack of a capping inversion means a good chance that storms will quickly continue to form along and near the dry-line and possibly congeal into multi-cell clusters. DCAPEs (Downdraft CAPE) of 1000+ J/KG indicate the potential for severe wind gusts. However, the biggest hazard looks to be large to very large hail of 2+ inches, due to plentiful instability, and the potential for some splitting supercells (left moving supercells are notorious for producing very large hail). The tornado threat is low, but not zero. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 ...Severe Thunderstorms Likely and Isolated Flash Flooding Possible Late This Afternoon and Tonight... Early this afternoon, much of west central Texas is in the warm sector, ahead of a cold front. The pre storm environment/warm sector indicates moderate to locally strong buoyancy and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. However, the deep layer wind shear is below 25 knots but may slightly improve. The Hi-Res models are indicating scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing mainly along and south of I-20 from mid afternoon through much of tonight. Some storms may severe due to the strong instability and marginal effective shear. The first few storms may be supercells, with very large hail(2 inch diameter or greater) possible and then expect a few cluster of storms with damaging winds becoming more likely this evening through the early morning hours. Isolated flash flooding is possible across mainly the Northwest Hill Country and southern Heartland due to PW values(1.2 to 1.4) above normal for this time of year and potential cell mergers. For Saturday, isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the morning and then quiet weather during the afternoon. Much cooler Saturday with highs in the 70s. Residents of west central Texas should stay up with the latest weather information and have many ways of receiving warnings/watches. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Weak flow aloft through the rest of the weekend and a relatively uncapped and unstable air mass will mean that a few showers and storms will continue across West Central Texas into Monday. Most likely area will be in the upslope flow across the Northern Edwards Plateau and east across the I-10 corridor. Pattern starts to change next week as an upper level ridge builds across the Texas/New Mexico border and putting the area from the Panhandle southeast across the Red River Valley into northwest flow aloft. Big Country and Heartland will be on the edge of this pattern and will see at least some chance for showers and storms through much of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop mainly south of I-20 this afternoon and evening(per Hi-Res models). Going with TEMPO TSRA groups for a few hours at most of the terminals, besides the KABI terminal. A few storms may be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Otherwise, mainly VFR this afternoon and evening outside of storms. Stratus will develop behind a cold front late tonight with MVFR ceilings at the terminals late tonight and Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 58 76 59 78 / 60 0 10 10 San Angelo 60 76 60 80 / 70 20 10 20 Junction 62 77 61 77 / 70 20 20 20 Brownwood 59 79 58 80 / 80 10 10 10 Sweetwater 58 75 59 79 / 50 10 10 10 Ozona 61 74 59 79 / 60 30 30 20 Brady 61 76 61 76 / 70 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...21
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 213 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-201915- Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho- Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford- Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble- Mason- 213 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Strong to severe storms likely across West Central Texas this afternoon and evening, most likely along and south of I-20. Very large hail to tennis ball, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. However, an isolated tornado will also remain possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Thunderstorms are possible through the first half of next week. The main threat will be dangerous lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is likely across much of West Central Texas this afternoon and evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
442 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
TXZ169-192215-
Kimble TX-
442 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Kimble
County through 515 PM CDT...
At 441 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Yates Crossing, or about 5 miles northeast of Junction, moving
northeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Junction and Yates Crossing.
This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 456 and 457.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3048 9978 3058 9977 3061 9967 3065 9948
3051 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 245DEG 5KT 3055 9969
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
mkdSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
449 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
TXZ073-192230-
Concho TX-
449 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Concho
County through 530 PM CDT...
At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
The Intersection Of Us-87 And Ranch Road 2134, or near 3 miles
northeast of Eden, moving east at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Concho
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3128 9987 3133 9983 3137 9960 3124 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 264DEG 5KT 3130 9978
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
mkdSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
450 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
TXZ154-155-192230-
McCulloch TX-San Saba TX-
450 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McCulloch and southwestern San Saba Counties through 530 PM CDT...
At 449 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rochelle, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Rochelle, Sloan and Us-190 Near The Mcculloch-San Saba County Line.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3105 9926 3123 9926 3126 9891 3104 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 267DEG 19KT 3115 9917
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
517 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
TXZ169-192245-
Kimble TX-
517 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Kimble
County through 545 PM CDT...
At 516 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Yates Crossing, or 5 miles southeast of Junction, moving east at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Kimble
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3048 9966 3055 9965 3056 9948 3050 9948
3050 9947 3048 9942 3041 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 287DEG 12KT 3051 9957
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
mkdSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
519 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
TXZ071-072-192245-
Irion TX-Tom Green TX-
519 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Tom
Green and east central Irion Counties through 545 PM CDT...
At 519 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sherwood, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Knickerbocker.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3123 10083 3131 10073 3126 10051 3111 10058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 284DEG 10KT 3125 10073
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
mkdThe San Angelo radar (KSJT), 129 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:26 UTC.
11 hail, 5 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Broadcast Media reported quarter to half dollar size hail on US 190, 4 miles east of Rochelle.
The public reported half dollar size hail.
The public reported large tree branches 3 to 4 inches in diameter broken by the wind.
A large tree was snapped near the base in Highland Range.
Mesonet site 3 miles SE of Grape Creek reported 63 mph wind gust.
The report was from mping.
The public reported small tree branches blown down in downtown San Angelo.
An NWS Employee reported a wind gust of 60 mph which snapped a tree branch 2 inches in diameter.
The San Angelo Police Department reported several water rescues across the city.
A vehicle was stalled in flood water in Chadbourne St. in downtown San Angelo.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1101168, 1101169, 1101176, 1101170, 1101148, 1101149, 1101172, 1101177, 1101178, 1101134, 1101135, 1101175, 1101144, 1101183, 1101133, 1101180, 1101182, 1101117, 1101132.