An upper low was moving out of Arizona and into the Texas Panhandle region. Just ahead of a cold front, winds gusted over 70 mph along and east of the Organ Mountains.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
An upper low was moving out of Arizona and into the Texas Panhandle region. Just ahead of a cold front, winds gusted over 70 mph along and east of the Organ Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 5:00 AM MST, 0 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
500 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023
An active next couple days as our next weather maker approaches the
area bringing windy conditions Tuesday. Windy conditions will
continue into Wednesday in addition to snow showers for the
mountains and lowlands. This weather maker ejects into the Plains
with cool and dry northwest flow remaining over the area Thursday.
The dry streak will continue Friday as a ridge builds over the
area on Friday. Breezy conditions will be seen during the
afternoon hours. Saturday looks like a nice day as temperatures
continue to rise with light winds and clearing skies.
Unfortunately, the nice weather does not last for long as breezy
conditions return, as well as precipitation. Clouds will build in,
but warm southwest flow from a subtropical tap of moisture will
keep temperatures similar to Saturdays. It appears breezy
afternoon winds and precipitation chances continue early next week
as a closed low influences the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 214 AM MST Tue Feb 14
2023
Upper low from the first storm is now over far NE New Mexico and
continuing to drift east over the Tex/OK Panhandle. Shortwave on
lead edge of wrap around moisture kicked off some showers Monday
night but it is now east of the CWA. Residual wrap around moisture
persists to the west, but much more unorganized. Still a few snow
showers through about daybreak or shortly after. Otherwise skies
should be clearing. Yesterday's cold front also well through the
area so a chilly day on tap today, with high temps anywhere from 5
to 15 deg below normal. Mid level winds will remain elevated all of
today and even strengthen tonight and Wednesday and a decent lee-
side low will form again this afternoon. With that, will continue
Wind Advisory for the lowlands and High Wind Warning mountains today
and tonight.
For Wednesday...second storm system, currently loosely organized
over northern Nevada and California will drop down to northern New
Mexico. This is a relatively dry pattern, but the northern zones
have a good chance for precip. The cold front moves through later
Wed morning, so most of the southern zones/lowlands will likely only
have a chance of precip with/near the front. PWs of .20-.30 inches
will give the mountains a decent shot at moderate/heavy snow. Precip
from this system will start out tonight over the Gila/Black Range
with snow levels around 6500 ft., but with the frontal passage Wed
morning, snow levels should drop to the surface all areas. Will
continue the Winter Storm Watch for the mountains, and also add
Hidalgo County into as they could see maybe 2-4 inches. Many of
these areas will also experience some blowing snow. As mentioned
above, strong mid level winds persist, so with mix down, looking at
one last day of strong winds. Will keep High Wind Watch out for all
areas on Wednesday. Temps again well below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 214 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023
After the upper-low that will bring breezy winds with snow/rain
showers on Wednesday ejects over the Plains and into the
Midwestern states, the Borderland will be left with drier and
cooler conditions. Northwest flow will continue through the day
thanks to the cold front we're expecting on Wednesday. An upper-
ridge will build over the area on Friday bringing dry, breezy, and
warm conditions. Saturday looks like a nice day as winds will be
light, dry conditions remain, clearing skies and temperatures
resume to near normal values.
Unfortunately, by Sunday the precipitation chances return for the
area. An upper-low off the coast of California and Baja-California
will feed in subtropical moisture to the area, effectively
keeping us warm with temperatures comparable to Saturday's, but in
addition to the rain chances, breezy winds are expected with
cloudy skies. The work week next week looks active as the
aforementioned upper-low will finally track across the area. Still
some discrepancies between long range models at this time. The
GFS is the fastest of the solutions and has the low over the area
late Tuesday night, whereas the Canadian and EC brings the low
over us Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023
VFR conditions with SCT-BKN060 BKN250. Isolated BKN040 -SHSN,
mainly over the Gila/Black Range and Sacramento Mtns. These
showers ending by 16Z, with conditions becoming SCT250. Spreading
to the Gila/Black Range after 03Z...SCT-BKN100 layers 250 with
isolated OVC030 3-5SM -SHSN. Surface winds west
15-20G35KT...stronger gusts to 45KT along east slopes of terrain.
LLWS most areas at around 015-020 ft of west 35-40KT. After 18Z
surface winds increasing southwest/west 23-30G45KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023
More winds on the way as winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph
are expected today, and winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 70 mph
possible on Wednesday. A new storm system will move through late
tonight through Wednesday evening, resulting in some moderate/heavy
snow for zones 110/111/113. The remainder of the lowlands could see
a brief shot of light snow. Upper ridge builds in for Thursday
through Saturday with mostly clear skies and temperatures warming
back to above normal for the weekend, and winds finally down to
relatively light speeds. Another chance of showers develops Sunday
and Monday.
Min RHs: Lowlands 20-30% today and Wednesday, decreasing to 10-20%
Thursday through Saturday. Mountains 45-55% today and Wednesday,
decreasing to 30-40% Thursday through Saturday. Vent rates very good-
excellent today and Wednesday, and poor-fair Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 59 39 52 28 / 0 10 50 0
Sierra Blanca 57 33 52 24 / 0 0 10 0
Las Cruces 57 35 48 24 / 0 30 60 0
Alamogordo 55 32 46 18 / 0 20 70 0
Cloudcroft 31 17 26 5 / 10 40 80 10
Truth or Consequences 54 33 44 22 / 0 60 50 0
Silver City 45 28 36 15 / 10 90 60 0
Deming 55 31 43 18 / 0 60 60 0
Lordsburg 55 28 40 17 / 10 90 60 0
West El Paso Metro 58 37 49 28 / 0 10 50 0
Dell City 56 32 52 20 / 0 0 30 0
Fort Hancock 63 33 56 27 / 0 0 20 0
Loma Linda 53 32 45 23 / 0 10 50 0
Fabens 61 33 54 27 / 0 10 30 0
Santa Teresa 57 34 48 24 / 0 20 50 0
White Sands HQ 56 39 48 27 / 0 30 70 0
Jornada Range 54 34 45 21 / 0 30 60 0
Hatch 55 34 45 21 / 0 40 60 0
Columbus 57 36 48 23 / 0 40 60 0
Orogrande 57 37 48 23 / 10 20 60 0
Mayhill 45 26 36 10 / 0 20 60 10
Mescalero 42 23 36 8 / 0 60 90 20
Timberon 41 21 35 9 / 10 20 70 0
Winston 44 24 36 15 / 0 70 40 0
Hillsboro 51 27 40 16 / 0 60 50 0
Spaceport 54 33 44 19 / 0 50 60 0
Lake Roberts 43 18 34 8 / 10 100 70 0
Hurley 52 26 39 14 / 0 80 50 0
Cliff 48 26 35 7 / 10 100 60 0
Mule Creek 45 26 33 3 / 10 100 40 0
Faywood 50 26 38 17 / 0 70 60 0
Animas 54 29 42 19 / 0 80 60 0
Hachita 53 30 42 18 / 0 60 60 0
Antelope Wells 53 32 42 19 / 0 40 70 0
Cloverdale 46 29 38 21 / 0 70 70 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for TXZ418>424.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
for TXZ418>424.
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ402-406-408-
414>416.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for NMZ401-403>405-407-
409>413-417.
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
for NMZ401>406-415.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
for NMZ401-403>405-407-409>413-417.
&&
SHORT TERM...17-Hefner
LONG TERM....37-Slusher
AVIATION...17-Hefner1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Mesonet site at San Augustin Pass recorded a peak gust of 75 mph at 610am. Other peak gusts included 72 mph at the White Sands Missile Range Building 1830, 68 mph at the WSMR Main Post and 59 mph at Condron Field.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1075447.