NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 8, 10:36 AM MST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 8, 10:36 AM MST, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1136 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023
High pressure aloft, responsible for our recent heat wave, is
beginning to drift off to the east again. This will help to lower
our temperatures a bit, and allow for a return of monsoon
moisture. Temperatures will remain above the seasonal normals,
but fall below extreme. Meanwhile we will see an increase in
shower and storm activity across the Borderland through the rest
of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023
High pressure over the area is beginning to "collapse" and center
to our south and east. For Monday, this allowed a tap of moisture
out of Sonora to lay over to the SE and stream over the region.
It's hard to see in the models, but it's likely a number of weak
shortwave impulses drifted over in the westerly flow aloft. The
result was in increase in shower and storm activity across the
region in the afternoon and evening hours. We were still under the
influence of the upper ridge, so temperatures were still quite
hot.
Today the ridge continues it's SEward jog, helping our region to
get from under the strength of the high. This will help to lower
our temperatures as we are proged to lose 2DM of height and 2
degrees C of temps at 850. We will see a 5-7 degree drop in
temperatures today across the region. Temperatures will still be
well above the daily normals, but not nearly as extreme as they
were for the past several days. For the rest of the week, and into
the weekend, temperatures look to stay pretty steady with minimal
variation day to day. However, with moisture moisture in our
atmosphere, it is entirely possible that cloud cover, from
overnight storms, lingering into the morning, could result in a
cooler day for portions of the region, and even break the current
100 degree string in El Paso one day this week.
On the moisture front, we are now, and will be through the week,
under a favorable monsoonal flow pattern. With the upper high
centered east, and low pressure off the Pacific coast, we now have
a deep southerly fetch moving moisture north out of Mexico, and
over our area. We will see our PWATs jump from the 0.88" last
night to 1.10-1.25" in rapid order today/this evening. That gets
us near the norm (peak of the year). With daytime heating and
upslope flow we should initiate a healthy round of mountain shower
and storms that will translate across our lowlands late afternoon
into the evening. We expect scattered to numerous mountain
ra/tstms and isolated to scattered lowland storms each day.
Models agree pretty well in drifting the upper high back NW over
our area late Sunday into Monday. This looks to cut off the
moisture feed, leading to drying and fewer storms, along with
warmer temperatures for next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023
VFR conditions expected through the period. After 18Z, showers and
storms are expected to develop over the high terrain, eventually
translating to the desert lowlands during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Coverage will be mostly isolated to low-end areas
of scattered. Storms and their associated outflows will produce
gusty winds. If storms impacts terminals directly, brief MVFR
conditions could develop. However, confidence is low for direct
impacts to any of the terminals so no mention in TAFs, AMENDs will
be issued as needed.
Winds will be breezy during the late afternoon and evening hours
AOB 10-13 knots with gusts to 20 knots. CIGS will gradually
diminish over the next few hours, especially for KELP and KLRU,
becoming SKC to FEW. FEW to SCT CU will develop during the mid to
late afternoon with CIGS of 100-150.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023
With high pressure aloft beginning to drift back to the SE, and
away from the region, fire weather concerns will begin to lower
somewhat due to slight cooling, and a moderate increase in
moisture. Through the rest of the week, temperatures will still
run warmer than seasonal normals, but they will lower by 5-10
degrees. It does appear that temperatures will stay pretty steady
through the week with little day to day variation.
With the high pressure aloft centering back to our east, and a
tropical low pressure system off the Pacific coast, we will come
under a deep southerly flow pattern, bringing back a monsoon
moisture flow pattern over the region...in fact, it started on
Monday. The result will be elevated dewpoints, RH, and
precipitable water in our atmosphere. We should see daily rounds
of scattered showers and thunderstorms with moderate to sometimes
heavy rainfall, maybe numerous across the mountains.
Aloft will be some deep westerly over our more northern sections,
so that could result in somewhat breezy afternoon conditions
across the Gila, today through Thursday. Winds in the 15 to 25 mph
range are most likely,
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 104 79 104 79 / 10 30 10 30
Sierra Blanca 95 70 95 68 / 30 30 30 40
Las Cruces 101 72 101 73 / 20 30 20 30
Alamogordo 98 70 99 71 / 10 30 10 20
Cloudcroft 75 53 75 55 / 30 30 20 10
Truth or Consequences 96 70 97 71 / 30 20 30 20
Silver City 91 63 91 64 / 40 30 60 30
Deming 100 69 100 70 / 20 30 20 40
Lordsburg 96 67 95 68 / 40 40 50 50
West El Paso Metro 101 77 102 77 / 10 30 10 40
Dell City 101 72 102 71 / 20 20 10 10
Fort Hancock 103 75 103 73 / 20 40 20 40
Loma Linda 94 70 95 70 / 20 20 20 30
Fabens 100 75 101 76 / 10 30 10 30
Santa Teresa 99 72 100 74 / 10 30 10 40
White Sands HQ 100 74 100 75 / 20 30 20 30
Jornada Range 99 68 99 70 / 20 30 20 30
Hatch 100 68 100 70 / 30 20 30 30
Columbus 99 72 99 73 / 30 30 30 50
Orogrande 97 69 98 69 / 20 30 10 30
Mayhill 87 60 87 60 / 30 20 30 10
Mescalero 86 56 86 57 / 30 30 20 20
Timberon 84 57 85 57 / 30 20 20 20
Winston 87 57 86 59 / 60 30 60 20
Hillsboro 97 64 97 66 / 40 40 40 30
Spaceport 97 65 98 68 / 30 30 30 20
Lake Roberts 89 56 90 58 / 50 40 60 40
Hurley 96 65 95 66 / 30 20 40 30
Cliff 98 57 98 58 / 50 30 60 30
Mule Creek 92 62 91 63 / 40 30 60 30
Faywood 95 66 95 68 / 30 30 40 30
Animas 96 67 95 68 / 50 50 60 60
Hachita 97 67 96 68 / 40 50 40 40
Antelope Wells 95 67 95 67 / 60 50 60 50
Cloverdale 91 65 90 65 / 60 50 60 60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
FORECASTER...38-Rogers