New Mexico, 2023

Flash Flood in New Mexico, August 25, 2023

August 25, 2023 · NWS ABQ · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Early morning storms drifting northward into southern Socorro County near the Oscura Mountains produced heavy rainfall. This resulted in water running over WSMR Range Road 7 that was two to three feet deep.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.

Early morning storms drifting northward into southern Socorro County near the Oscura Mountains produced heavy rainfall. This resulted in water running over WSMR Range Road 7 that was two to three feet deep. Mud and debris was also reported.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 25, 4:21 AM MST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 25, 4:21 AM MST, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

An active shower and thunderstorm pattern is expected today as a
more traditional monsoon pattern sets up. The best moisture will
stretch from south to north northeastern areas of New Mexico where
storms will be focused. A few storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, and this has prompted the issuance of a
Flood Watch for portions of the south central mountains and the
Sangre de Cristos where vulnerable burn scars will be susceptible
to excessive runoff. Temperatures will warm a couple to a few
degrees today, but will still be slightly below average in
western areas of the state. Plenty of moisture will linger for
scattered to numerous showers and storms each day through early
next week. Storms will be concentrated over the southwestern and
northern mountains of New Mexico this weekend before expanding and
multiplying over eastern areas of the state Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Abundant low-level monsoonal moisture remains across the forecast
area, evident by areawide dewpoints in the 50s to 60s. With skies
forecast to be clearer than yesterday morning, diurnal heating
leading to destabilization is expected to get going around mid-day
favoring the high terrain of central and western NM. With the main
594dm H5 upper high centered over TX/OK still, southerly steering
flow on the western periphery of the high over NM will generally
take thunderstorm cells toward the N/NE through the afternoon. This
will favor cells and secondary convective updrafts along colliding
outflow boundaries taking place over surrounding valley areas. This
will include the middle Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to
Albuquerque to Santa Fe, as well as the adjacent northeast highlands
along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Some cells will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall and there is an increased risk of
this occurring over recent sensitive burn scars. A Flood Watch for
burn scar flash flooding will be laid down for the McBride and
Hermit's Peak Calf Canyon burn scars today. Global model and hi-res
CAM solutions show convection lasting the longest along the
Johnson/Bartlett Mesas area stretching eastward toward Clayton
Friday evening.

The upper high slides westward almost squarely over NM by Saturday.
This will significantly weaken steering flow for thunderstorms
developing over the western and central high terrain Saturday
afternoon. An increased risk of flash flooding, especially on recent
burn scars looks likely again. Another Flood Watch looks likely for
Saturday. The eastern plains look to remain mostly dry, outside of
thunderstorms drifting east over the northeastern highlands and
plains. Some scenarios, like the NAM12 are forcing a potent outflow
boundary enhanced backdoor front which would allow for showers or
storms to advance further into east-central NM late Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Convection in CO and northern NM will help push surface high
pressure farther southwestward into our northern zones Saturday
night while the upper level high continues to slide westward.
Surface high pressure on a broader synoptic scale will then start
to rebuild into northeastern NM on Sunday, sending an upslope
component toward the east faces of the Sangre de Cristos in the
afternoon. Storms would exploit this upslope, and the remainder of
the central mountain chain should also be a good initiation point
for storms, as will the southwestern peaks again. Scattered storms
will also expand into eastern plains zones Sunday where the actual
best moisture (PWATs of 1.0 to 1.3 inch) will be located.
Scattered storms would also gradually fill into central areas in
between through the evening.

With the upper high nudging farther west of NM Monday, a
reinforcing backdoor front will work its way westward to the Rio
Grande by late afternoon. This front will provide another round of
upslope flow, low layer moisture and surface convergence,
initiating a healthier crop of stronger storms along and east of
the central mountain chain. Sufficient directional shear will
also introduce the potential for some severe weather in the form
of larger hail, gusty downbursts and hefty downpours in the
eastern half of the forecast area. Meanwhile, the southwestern
mountains will be a secondary focal point for convective
initiation with cells gradually filling into surrounding lower
elevations. In addition, the front should introduce gusty east
canyon winds for many vulnerable central locations Monday evening.

A climatological coverage pattern of storms is expected into
Tuesday with the southern and northern mountains being favored for
development, however drier air could begin seeping in from the
north, lowering PWATs below an inch and reducing rainfall
efficiency. From there, the coverage of storms should decrease
day-by-day as the high passes back over NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Thus far, low cigs or br/fg have been isolated to the northern mtn
valleys including KAXX tonight. It's looking more and more
unlikely that any will develop over lower elevation areas around
KFMN-KGUP this morning. VFR prevails until afternoon ts
development is forecast to begin over the central and western mts
near 18Z. Storms will generally track N/NE providing localized
MVFR conditions from heavy rainfall and erratic gusty winds. Have
removed mention of shra at KFMN as current forecast trends have
storms developing over the San Juans then moving away from the
terminal. Otherwise, KGUP-KABQ-KAEG-KSAF-KLVS all have mention of
ts chance this afternoon or evening. Storms look to advance into
far northeastern NM, but struggle to reach into east-central NM.
Therefore, continued to leave out mention of ts at KTCC and KROW.
Storm activity steadily tapers off near 06Z with remnant sporadic
shras thereafter. Low clouds with br/fg may be possible over
portions of northeastern NM late tonight toward the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Monsoonal moisture remains over the area with the main upper high
centered over TX/OK this morning. Afternoon thunderstorm activity
will favor development over the central and western mountains with
steering flow taking cells generally to the N/NE. Burn scar flash
flooding from locally heavy rainfall is possible today, a Flood
Watch is in effect for this afternoon and evening for the McBride
and Hermit's Peak Calf Canyon burn scars.

The upper high slides squarely over NM Saturday and Sunday which
will result in slow storm motions allowing for locally heavy
rainfall favoring central and western NM. The upper high slides west
of the area early next week with storms favoring the central
mountain chain before progressing E/SE over the eastern plains
through the afternoon and evening. Prevailing winds will be light
with overall good to excellent recoveries each morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  61  88  63 /  20  20  10  20
Dulce...........................  81  52  83  50 /  50  40  40  40
Cuba............................  80  57  81  56 /  40  40  50  50
Gallup..........................  82  57  83  55 /  20  20  30  40
El Morro........................  80  55  79  52 /  50  40  60  60
Grants..........................  82  55  82  54 /  50  40  60  50
Quemado.........................  81  56  81  53 /  70  50  70  60
Magdalena.......................  79  60  80  58 /  60  40  60  40
Datil...........................  78  56  77  53 /  70  40  60  50
Reserve.........................  85  57  85  55 /  70  50  70  50
Glenwood........................  90  65  89  63 /  70  50  60  40
Chama...........................  76  50  77  48 /  70  40  60  50
Los Alamos......................  81  60  80  59 /  60  50  70  50
Pecos...........................  82  58  78  58 /  60  50  60  50
Cerro/Questa....................  80  47  78  45 /  70  50  50  70
Red River.......................  72  46  69  45 /  70  60  70  70
Angel Fire......................  74  45  70  43 /  70  50  70  60
Taos............................  82  54  81  53 /  60  50  50  50
Mora............................  78  53  74  51 /  70  60  60  60
Espanola........................  88  61  87  60 /  50  40  40  50
Santa Fe........................  82  61  80  60 /  60  40  50  60
Santa Fe Airport................  85  60  83  58 /  50  40  40  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  65  86  66 /  40  30  50  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  66  88  65 /  30  30  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  90  66  89  62 /  30  30  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  88  66  88  66 /  30  30  40  40
Belen...........................  90  64  90  64 /  30  30  30  30
Bernalillo......................  90  65  89  64 /  30  40  40  50
Bosque Farms....................  89  64  89  61 /  40  30  40  40
Corrales........................  89  66  89  65 /  30  40  40  50
Los Lunas.......................  90  65  89  62 /  40  30  40  40
Placitas........................  86  64  85  64 /  40  40  40  50
Rio Rancho......................  88  65  88  66 /  30  40  40  40
Socorro.........................  88  66  89  64 /  40  30  40  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  80  60  79  59 /  40  40  50  50
Tijeras.........................  83  61  82  60 /  40  30  50  50
Edgewood........................  83  57  83  56 /  50  30  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  84  56  84  54 /  40  40  50  40
Clines Corners..................  81  57  80  56 /  50  30  40  40
Mountainair.....................  83  57  81  57 /  40  40  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  83  59  82  58 /  60  40  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  85  64  84  64 /  60  30  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  77  58  78  55 /  70  20  50  10
Capulin.........................  82  55  75  53 /  70  70  60  60
Raton...........................  85  56  78  56 /  80  60  60  60
Springer........................  88  57  83  57 /  70  50  60  50
Las Vegas.......................  83  55  80  55 /  60  50  60  50
Clayton.........................  91  63  83  61 /  20  50  30  40
Roy.............................  88  60  83  60 /  50  60  40  50
Conchas.........................  95  66  92  65 /  30  40  30  40
Santa Rosa......................  91  64  90  64 /  30  30  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  96  65  93  64 /  10  20  10  30
Clovis..........................  94  65  93  65 /   5   5   0  20
Portales........................  96  65  95  67 /   0   5   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  94  66  94  66 /  10  10   5  20
Roswell.........................  96  68  97  71 /   5   5   0   5
Picacho.........................  87  63  89  63 /  40  20  10   5
Elk.............................  83  59  85  59 /  50  20  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214-
215-226.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 53 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:25 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Socorro

When
August 25, 6:25 AM MST to 6:50 AM MST
Where
Socorro County, 26.97 mi S of Bingham to 28.87 mi S of Bingham
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Other Federal Agency
Coordinates
33.500, -106.390

There were several flood areas along White Sands Missile Range Road Seven. Water was two to three feet deep with mud and debris on the road.

What these are

Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1113475.