Damaging Wind in Nevada, May 14, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
148 PM PDT Sun May 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms will persist
thru the entire forecast period with activity mainly focused
across the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures will
also be warm, gradually increasing by a degree or two thru the
week, becoming 10+ degrees warmer than average by the end of the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms persist into
the evening as a retrograding upper low moving across northern
Nevada aids in storm development. Activity decreases the first
half of tonight with most of the forecast area becoming dry.
Latest hi-res guidance indicates portions of southern and eastern
Elko County retaining isolated showers and thunderstorms into the
latter half of the night, Particularly over the Ruby Mtns/E
Humboldt Range. Surface winds also trend lighter overnight.
Tonight's low temperatures look to be upper 30s to upper 40s.

Monday will see the return of isolated to scattered rain showers
and isolated thunderstorms as the upper low moves northwest out of
Nevada and into Oregon. Activity will not be as widespread as it
has been today and will mainly be focused along US-50 in central
Nevada and north, and along US-95 in Humboldt County and east.
Instability and moisture looks to be focused across Elko County
with surface based CAPE values again progged between 400 and 700+
J/kg along with similar lifted indices. PWAT values also look to
be generally maintained. These values quickly trend lower however
outside of the immediate Elko County area as the overall pattern
evolves with the upper low moving out of the region and drier air
moving in from the southwest. Meaning while a large portion of the
CWA will see isolated showers and thunderstorms as described,
activity will be more modest with the exception of Elko County
where activity will be similar to today with better chance for
small hail and gusty/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds compared
to elsewhere. Showers trend dry overnight. Rain totals on the day
will be highly variable given the scattered to isolated coverage
and convective nature of the showers. Totals look to range from a
few hundredths to 0.25”+ with the more significant totals again
focused within Elko County. Surface gradient winds will be breezy
and the strongest gusts will be across NW Nye County where
southwest winds with gusts around 30 mph are expected. Look for
daytime high temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s. Overnight
lows look to be mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday

There is high confidence that the silver state will be under a
ridge feature Tuesday through next Sunday. This confidence does
diminish somewhat towards next weekend as a pair of troughs
interact with the ridge. These should serve to weaken the ridge of
NV but models are in a rough alignment that they will not be able
to supplant the ridge. While ridges typically bring fair weather
that will not be the case for this ridge as moisture will be
trapped under it for its whole duration. This is a classic summer
setup for daily afternoon to evening high based thunderstorms.
Since the amount of moisture in these storms will be low and they
will sit over a deep dry layer rainfall will very likely (80%) not
occur for the valleys. Only if the thunderstorm sits over an area
for a long duration would measurable rainfall >=0.01 inch occur
(20%) for the valleys. The mountains being relatively wetter than
the valleys, especially for summer convective set ups, can expect
to see measurable but small amounts of rainfall. What can be
expected from these thunderstorms is strong outflow winds as this
setup is a favorable environment for dry microbursts. Any of the
thunderstorms can produce these winds which, knowing summertime
NV, can be very strong in a localized area. Temperatures under
this ridge will be hot and slowly increasing through the week.
Expect highs in the 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the 40s
to 50s. This will continue the streak of above seasonable
temperatures through the rest of the week and into the start of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Rain showers and thunderstorms are present across
northern and central NV now to 11 pm. After 11 pm nocturnal
showers persist in Elko county through Monday morning. Further
thunderstorms expected to develop NE NV Monday at 11 am. All
terminals are being impacted from the rain showers today, and then
KEKO and KELY for Monday.

Today's impacts:
1. Erratic and gusty outflow winds expected.
2. Hail expected, most likely (80%) size of pea, however stronger
storms can produce larger hail.
3. IMC conditions and mountain obscurations across NV.
4. Turbulence and icing expected, see Aviation Weather Center.
5. KTPH ASOS down, remains AMD NOT SKED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rivers and creeks continue to run swift and high as
snowpack continues to melt from central and northern Nevada
mountains. Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average
thru this week with overnight lows above freezing. This will
increase mountain snowmelt and subsequently increase flow rates
and heights of area rivers and creeks. Creeks that are usually
quicker to respond are already starting to see an increase in flow
and height. Slower responding rivers are to start seeing
increases later this week. A more active weather pattern with rain
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast can produce further
hydrologic impacts from rainfall and rain on snow.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Humboldt River at Comus as
it remains in minor flood stage.

A Flood Advisory is in effect for the Humboldt River at Battle
Mountain as it resides in action stage.

The Flood Advisory for the Marys River Near Deeth has been
canceled this morning as river height has dropped below action
stage. Enhanced snow melt may return the Marys River to action
stage in the coming days however.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

92/99/99