NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 1:27 AM PST, 6 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 12, 1:27 AM PST, 6 hours 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
127 AM PST Sun Mar 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Additional waves of moisture will keep rain and snow chances
going through Monday, especially for the Sierra and northeast
California. Another stronger storm is likely to bring heavier
precipitation with increased winter and hydrologic impacts Monday
night through Tuesday, with unsettled and showery conditions
possible at times later next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Through Monday Evening...
Rain and snow showers are still ongoing this morning for most areas.
These showers will continue through the morning and the afternoon
today. Snow levels are continuing to fluctuate around 5500' in
northern NV, 6500' in the Tahoe Basin, and 7000' along the eastern
Sierra at the time of this discussion. While fairly light this
morning, winds across lower elevations will increase slightly this
afternoon, while Sierra ridges will stay breezy around 40 mph
gusting to 60 mph.
Although fairly zonal, we'll remain in a fairly unsettled pattern
through Monday from a shortwave sneaking by this afternoon.
Showers will be fairly continuous along the Sierra through Monday
evening, with occasional spillover and heavier precip when the
shortwave passes through. Snow levels today through Monday are
expected to stay between 5500-7000'. 700 mb temperatures will
hover between -5C to -7C before the next atmospheric river storm
moves in Tuesday AM. Total QPF and snow amounts today and Monday:
up to 0.25" of liquid across Western NV, 0.50-1.50" (up to 4" of
snow in higher elevations) in northeast CA, and 1-4" of liquid
(1-4 feet of snow) along the Sierra above 8000'. No snow
accumulations are expected across western NV through Monday
evening due to high snow levels and warmer temperatures.
Winds will start to pick up later this morning out of the southwest
across lower elevations, gusting to 25 mph. Monday looks to be a
little breezier as a 45 kt 700 mb jet dips south across western NV.
Ridge winds could see gusts 70-80 mph while lower valleys could gust
up to 35 mph.
-Justin
.LONG TERM...Monday Night through Next Weekend...
Next Atmospheric River Monday Night through Wednesday:
OVERVIEW:
* We are on track to see another atmospheric river (AR) late
Monday through Wednesday. This storm will bring gusty winds,
heavy-wet snow above 7000-8000', spillover rainfall to western
Nevada, and renewed flooding and snow load/avalanche issues.
Compared to this past weekend's AR, this one looks slightly
cooler with lower snow levels.
WIND:
* There will be gusty south-southwesterly winds Tuesday late morning
through the afternoon ahead of the cold frontal passage Wednesday
morning. Winds do not look as strong as this past Friday, which
had several gusts over 50 mph across the Sierra, northeast
California, and western Nevada. Wind gusts look to be on the order
of 40-50 mph, with Sierra ridges feeling gusts of 100+ mph. Plan
on impacts to travel, especially for aviation interests and high-
profile vehicles.
SNOWFALL/SNOW LEVELS:
* Surges of subtropical moisture associated with the next AR will
move across northeast California, the Sierra Nevada, and into
western Nevada Monday night into early Wednesday. Snow levels
look to rise to 6500' for northeast California, 7000-7500' for
the Lake Tahoe Basin eastward across western Nevada along I-80
and US-50, and 8000' for Mono County and western Nevada south of
US-50 during the day Tuesday. As the cold front approaches the
region late Tuesday, snow levels are anticipated to decrease
2000-2500' by early Wednesday morning. However, precipitation
will be lessening as this occurs. If the current forecast holds,
heavy wet snowfall will be possible mainly above 7000' across
the Sierra Nevada. Some light snow, generally less than an inch,
will be possible Wednesday morning in far western Nevada above
4500' as the snow levels drop with the approach of the cold
front. The core of the AR looks to be directed mainly at the
central- southern Sierra, which will bring heavy snowfall to
parts of far western Mono County, which could receive 4+ feet of
fresh heavy- wet snowfall. Farther north into the Lake Tahoe
Basin, 2-3 feet are possible near the Sierra crest, with amounts
quickly dropping off below 7000', with a few inches of wet snow
likely during the onset and final stage of this storm.
* Prepare for significant travel impacts and delays over Sierra
passes starting Monday evening, which could last through early
Wednesday morning. As always, check road conditions with
Caltrans and Nevada DOT before traveling.
* We have seen several structural issues from snow loading in the
Sierra Nevada from this past AR. Snow loading on structures will
likely continue with this next AR due to heavy rainfall being
absorbed by the already existing deep snowpack, especially for
areas below 7000' in the Lake Tahoe Basin and below 8000' in
the Eastern Sierra. There will also be a higher risk of
roofalanches in these areas. Follow guidance from local
officials and building inspectors for ways to monitor and
mitigate the risk of increased snow loads on roofs.
LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL:
* Bands of rain look to extend across western Nevada beginning
Tuesday morning, lasting through much of the day. Some timing
differences still exist between the ECMWF ENS, GEFS, and CMC
ENS. The ECMWF ENS rapidly tapers off precipitation Wednesday,
while the GEFS and CMC ENS keep showers going through Wednesday.
The latest storm total precipitation forecast show 0.50-1.25
inches for far western Nevada communities of Reno, Virginia
City, Carson City, and Minden, tapering off to 0.25-0.50" into
the Basin and Range of western Nevada. Depending on where the
core of the AR centers over the Sierra Nevada, we could see
higher rain totals south of US-50 in western Nevada, which have
been hard hit from this past AR, with flooding and rockslides.
FLOODING RISKS:
* Rises are currently forecast on all rivers and streams Tuesday
into Wednesday. River forecast confidence remains varied since
we are still 2-3 days out. However, wet soils, a receptive mid-
elevation snowpack, and ongoing elevated streamflows could lead
to more rapid runoff during this AR event. Use the next few days
to prepare for possible flooding. Expect flood prone areas and
streams below 7000' to have problems again Tuesday through
Wednesday. Do not let your guard down and stay tuned for updates
on river forecasts at cnrfc.noaa.gov.
Late this Week:
* By Thursday, simulations are leaning towards a break. Cooler
temperatures are expected Wednesday through Thursday morning,
followed by some moderation on Thursday. The active pattern
looks to return with weaker weather systems moving across the
region Friday into next weekend. Precipitation amounts are
notably much lighter and mainly confined to the Sierra Nevada.
Beyond the long range, the storm door at this time looks to
remain open, with ensemble guidance hinting of a storm next
Sunday into Monday.
-Johnston
&&
.AVIATION...
* Sierra terminals: Periods of light to moderate snow (occasional
rain in the afternoons) with MVFR/IFR conditions in CIG/VIS and
mountain obscurations will continue this morning through Monday
evening. Gusts of 25-30 kts out of the southwest today, increasing
to 30-35 kts Monday afternoon.
* Lower elevation terminals: Periods of MVFR conditions in light to
moderate rain with occasional IFR conditions in heavier precip
bands. Gusts today up to 20 kts out of the southwest, increasing
to 30 kts monday afternoon.
* FL100 winds will stay steady today out of the southwest at 35-40
kts. Expect continued mountain wave turbulence and LLWS today
through tonight. A shortwave passing through this afternoon will
increase precip rates between 18-00Z.
* The active pattern will continue through the first half of this
upcoming week, with another Pacific storm moving in Tuesday AM. Be
aware of continued aviation impacts such as strong winds,
turbulence, heavy precipitation producing lower CIGS/VIS,
especially from Monday night through Wednesday morning.
-Justin
&&
.AVALANCHE WEATHER...
Waves of Pacific moisture will produce additional rounds of snowfall
through Monday. New snowfall will continue to accumulate on top of
the deep existing snowpack creating varying snow densities.
Another atmospheric river (AR) will bring increased winds, heavy
snowfall rates along with high snow levels, resulting in low snow-to-
liquid ratios Monday night through Tuesday.
* 24-hr Snow Water Equivalent (SWE): 1-3" through tonight for the
Lake Tahoe Basin/Alpine County, with heaviest totals north of US-
50, then decreasing to about 0.75-1.50" from tonight through
Monday. Lesser SWE rates of 0.50-1.00" for Mono County through
Monday. SWE rates increase again late Monday night through Tuesday
with the next incoming AR.
* Snow-to-Liquid Ratios: Medium to high snow-to-liquid ratios about
11-15:1 through tonight, then trending lower late Monday through
Tuesday.
* Winds: Southwest winds continue with gusts generally 55 to 75 mph
across the ridges through tonight, with an increasing trend late
Monday through Tuesday.
-Johnston
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ002.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ071.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ072.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ073.
&&