Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
128 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Subtropical moisture is on its way into central and
eastern Nevada tonight, streaming up from southern Nevada and
Utah. Expect increasing cloud cover and showers and thunderstorms
spreading northwest on Tuesday. Active weather will remain across
much of central and northern Nevada through the end of the week.
Temperatures will cool as well with highs only reaching the 70s in
some locations midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night. Radar at this time is
showing isolated convective activity moving through White Pine and
northeast Nye county. The activity will gradually diminish after
sunset. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

A weak wave will be moving northward into central and east-central
Nevada tomorrow and tomorrow night. A plume of moisture will be
associated with this feature, bringing an increase in the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms west and north. Some storms could
produce brief periods of moderate to heavy rain with localized
minor flooding possible in poor drainage areas. With the cloud
cover and rainfall, a cooling trend will begin on Tuesday starting
in central Nevada. Highs there will be in the 80s with some lower
valley locations near 90. For the north, highs will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s. Winds will be light, though some convective
outflows to 45 mph are possible. Convective activity is expected
to continue through the overnight as the energy moves north
through the forecast area. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.

High pressure centered over the southern Plains persists with
broad ridging centered over the central plains and Rockies. Thru
midweek, weak cyclonic circulation situated over the Gulf of
Alaska better organizes. This feature will eject shortwave
perturbations across the northern U.S., effectively flattening the
ridge and creating a generally zonal flow regime by the Sunday
time frame. A more progressive pattern looks to remain over the
bulk of the U.S. for Monday with the afore mentioned persistent
high retrograding west along the U.S./Mexico border.

The synoptic pattern described will work to increase PWAT values
across the Great Basin as mid and upper level flow becomes mostly
southerly Tuesday, moving moisture north from the Gulf of
California. Wednesday will see the best chances for wetting rain
showers and thunderstorms as PWATs reside around 1” for much of
the CWA. Brief heavy rain and small, generally pea sized hail,
will be possible under any storms that pass overhead. The high
terrain has a 30-40% probably of exceeding 0.25”. However, amounts
will be lower in and near Humboldt County as moisture remains
focused across central and eastern Nevada.

As the synoptic pattern evolves Wednesday, upper and mid level
winds turn southwesterly, cutting off the moisture feed. Drier air
descending the lee side of the Sierra will relegate moisture to
mostly northern Nevada. Latest progs indicate PWAT values across
northern Nevada residing around 0.75” Thursday afternoon. Isolated
to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be present with
isolated dry and wet showers/storms across central Nevada.

Areal coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms continues to
shift north for Friday with activity mostly focused over the high
terrain of Elko County for the weekend, likely dry by Monday.

Winds will be mostly calm to light, becoming light to breezy
during the afternoons. Locally strong and erratic gusts will be
present near any thunderstorms. With the synoptic pattern finally
shifting, along with increases in cloud cover, much cooler
afternoon temperatures will be observed Wednesday and thru the
period. Daytime highs Wednesday look to be in the mid 70s to mid
80s with temps near 90 across Humboldt County. Overnight lows look
to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Temperatures warm modestly
into the weekend yet reside near to slightly cooler than average
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the
next 24 hours. Thunderstorms across White Pine and northeast Nye
Counties will produce strong and erratic wind gusts of 50KT and
subsequently localized blowing dust. Blowing dust or a brief rain
shower associated with any storms that move on terminal this
evening may briefly reduce visibility to MVFR or IFR. Storms and
showers will begin to taper off thru the evening hours, although
isolated showers and thunderstorms are indicated by short range
guidance to linger in White Pine County until around midnight.
This has been reflected in the TAF for KELY with VCTS forecast
thru 0600Z. Breezy winds across the forecast area will trend
lighter overnight with winds mostly calm and light and variable
into tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The plume of subtropical moisture will expand
westward tomorrow, allowing for an increase in the areal coverage
of showers and thunderstorms. The western periphery of this
moisture will be east of a Battle Mountain to Austin line. The
outer edges of the moisture will see isolated dry thunderstorms,
with a transition to a mix of wet and dry storms later on Tuesday.
Precipitable water values will increase to at or above 0.80
inches on Wednesday, though will be less over Humboldt county.
Forecast storm motions of 10 knots or less will help to promote
brief periods of moderate to heavy rain, especially across
portions of northeast Nye, White Pine, southern Eureka, and
portions of Elko county during the afternoon hours on Wednesday.
Expect a cooling trend with high temperatures only making it into
the 70s and 80s on Wednesday. Some minor drying is expected to
take place Thursday through the weekend but temperatures will
remain in the 80s.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

86/92/92/86