NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 8:27 AM PST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 25, 8:27 AM PST, 2 hours 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
927 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today across the eastern Mojave Desert and Northwest Arizona. Hot
temperatures will continue with drier air shifting storm activity
mainly into northern Arizona the remainder of the week. An uptick
in moisture returns over the weekend with thunderstorm chances
spreading westward early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Another day of isolated convection across far southern
Nevada, far southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona
expected this afternoon, with anomalous PWATs across the area.
Coverage should be at or less than yesterday, with highest impacts
being gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and localized
flooding. Similar DCAPE seen on this morning's 12Z KLAS sounding as
yesterday, though PWAT has decreased somewhat... from 1.17" to
0.95". Otherwise, looking at high temperatures 4-6 degrees above
seasonal averages today. Las Vegas forecast high is 110. Yesterday,
the high temperature at Harry Reid came in at 109, breaking the
streak of 110+ temperatures. Excessive Heat Warning is in effect at
10am this morning for the Colorado River Valley including Lake Mead,
Lake Mohave, and Lake Havasu, and will continue through 8pm PDT on
Thursday. No changes were made to the forecast this morning, as it
looks to be in good shape.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...147 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023/
.SHORT TERM...Today.
Continued hot temperatures and very (very) low grade monsoonal
moisture will be the main weather concerns today across the
region. Expansive high pressure ridge which has dominated the
Southwest US most of the month remains in place and is centered
over the southern Rockies today, with a south-southwesterly flow
aloft across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin.
Temperatures will be similar, perhaps a couple degrees warmer,
than yesterday thanks to some slight height rises and continued
mixing out of the low level moisture. An Excessive Heat Warning
goes into effect this morning for the Colorado River Valley zones
including Lake Mead, Mohave, and Havasu where high temperatures
are expected to climb into the 115+ degree range and high heat
risk is expected.
Meanwhile, as mentioned above, very limited and meager monsoonal
moisture will hang around today, in just enough quantity to spark
some isolated afternoon and evening development mainly in the
higher terrain. This evenings 00z HREF suggest a stripe of central
San Bernardino County, the mountains of southern Clark County
extending from Nipton to near Boulder City, and eastern Mohave
County, will be favored for development. Brief rainfall will be
possible with the transient storm activity expected, but the
larger risk will be for gusty outflow winds with HREF suggesting
greater than 50% probabilities for wind gusts greater than 30
knots in central San Bernardino County this evening. Whatever
activity does manage to form today will diminish quickly after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.
By midweek, a dry southwesterly flow will set up aloft. This flow is
conducive for the passage of shortwaves across the southern Great
Basin. This can be seen in the NBM, which has populated gusty
southwesterly winds on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with gusts
between 25 and 35 mph. Temperatures will increase slightly on
Wednesday before remaining fairly consistent through the remainder
of the week. Highest heat impacts will be focused down the Colorado
River Valley where an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect through
Thursday evening.
By the weekend, the high pressure will meander its way back
westward toward the Four Corners, which will allow moisture to
funnel into our forecast area once again. This, along with the
approach of an inverted trough along the southern international
border will allow for return of a more active monsoonal pattern.
PoPs between 30 and 50 percent already exist Saturday and Sunday in
northwest Arizona, and will spread westward into southern Nevada and
eastern California by early next week. This moisture will also work
to drop temperatures, with the Las Vegas afternoon high on Monday
currently forecast to moderate near the seasonal average.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds at 8KT or less
favoring the south through the morning. A brief period of southeast
winds around 8-10KT is possible before breezy south winds push in
around 21Z. Southerly gusts 15-20KT are expected this afternoon.
Winds will diminish after sunset and follow typical overnight wind
patterns.
Increasing confidence that isolated thunderstorms develop on the
terrain south and west of the terminals this afternoon. Low
confidence however that these storms will move into the valley and
impact the area directly. Currently think that convection will
remain around the valley and thus little to no direct thunderstorm
impacts will occur at the terminals. If more convection develops
closer to the airport, sudden gusty outflow winds will be possible
this afternoon after 21Z, however that is not likely at this time.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
western Arizona this afternoon, with isolated activity possible
across southeast Nevada and eastern San Bernardino County.
Thunderstorm chances will linger through about 03Z before quickly
diminishing late this evening. Sudden gusty winds, CIGs to 10kft,
and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any convection.
Similar wind patterns are expected across the region as the past few
days with light winds through the morning increasing out of the
south to southwest in many locations this afternoon. KBIH may see
another push of west winds between 00Z-03Z with speeds around 10KT
if this occurs. Winds tonight will follow diurnal wind patterns.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
UPDATE...Varian
SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Varian/Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson
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