Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 18, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
842 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2023

SYNOPSIS..Isolated showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue
to push through central and east-central Nevada this morning. By
the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop, though areas in the north will see some sunshine.
Afternoon high temperatures will remain above normal with
occasional wind gusts. Look for above normal temperatures to
continue into this week with mostly dry conditions.&&

.UPDATE...Radar trends have picked up during the morning hours
across areas of Northern Nye county. Have updated PoPs and
weather to account for the activity. In addition, isolated
lightning strikes have been detected across Northern Nye county.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2023/

SYNOPSIS..Isolated showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue
to push through central and east-central Nevada this morning. By
the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop, though areas in the north will see some sunshine.
Afternoon high temperatures will remain above normal with
occasional wind gusts. Look for above normal temperatures to
continue into this week with mostly dry conditions.

UPDATE...Radar reflectivities have picked up during the early
morning hours though the echos may be missing remote observation
stations. Have updated PoPs and weather to account for the
activity. In addition, isolated lightning strikes have developed
in northern Lincoln and southern White Pine counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2023/

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. A large ridge of high
pressure is expected to remain over the southern United States
through the short term period. A surface boundary will remain
rather stationary over the forecast area as seen in the wind
fields. In addition, a ribbon of high precipitable water air will
be coincident with the aforementioned frontal boundary. The best
chances for showers and thunderstorms will reside across central
Nevada today. Some of the storms could bring moderate rainfall to
the area. Winds will be occasionally gusty with speeds up to 25
mph, though convective gusts to 40 mph are possible with any
storm. High temperatures today will be in the 90s. A few leftover
showers are expected during the overnight tonight, especially in
central Nevada. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

A shortwave trough will move around the ridge on Wednesday and
push across the region through the night. This will allow for
another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop. Best chances remain in central Nevada where brief
moderate rain is possible. Highs will continue to be in the 90s
though areas that see rainfall will generally be a little cooler
in the 80s. Wind gusts will again be in the 20s mph range, but
convective gusts to 45 mph are possible. Partial clearing from
west to east is expected during Wednesday night with lows in the
50s and 60s.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday and beyond will see similar weather conditions every day.
The ridge of high pressure still remains over the southwestern
U.S. leaving temperatures to be warm with highs in the 90s to 100s
and lows in the 60s. Isolated thunderstorms (20% chance) has
shifted more towards eastern Nevada on Thursday, with the rest of
the forecast showing quieter weather but there still is a less
than 20% chance of isolated/dry thunderstorms over northeastern
Elko County everyday.

High level clouds are expected over much of the CWA with the
greatest cover during the weekend and into Monday. Tuesday will
still see some upper level clouds but with less coverage.

Winds will be light at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph every
afternoon. Wind direction will be more westerly towards northern
Nevada and more southwesterly in central Nevada, as zonal patterns
begin to shift in a north/south direction as the high pressure
moves eastward towards Arizona/New Mexico.

AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms mainly across northern
Nevada will gradually dissipate through 12Z. VFR conditions are
expected for all terminals for the 24 hour period of this
forecast. Winds will be predominantly from the west during the day
at up to 15 knots with occasional gusts around 20 knots across
northern Nevada. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon beginning around 18Z across central
Nevada affecting KTPH, KELY, and KEKO. However, chances of
thunderstorms on station remain low with KEKO and KTPH having a
10% and 20% chance, respectively, but KELY has a better chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon, reaching 45%. VFR conditions will
predominate but brief erratic outflow winds and dust is possible
with the stronger thunderstorms nearby. KELY and KWMC remains AMD
NOT SKED.

FIRE WEATHER...Fuels continue to dry, but still labeled
“approaching critical”. While spotty showers may accompany
afternoon thunderstorms, particularly over the central Nevada
mountains, significant precipitation or wetting rain is very low
(10%). Breezy this afternoon with some gusts reaching 20 mph with
convective gusts to 40 mph. For this afternoon through next
Monday, high likelihood that wind gusts stay below any critical
threshold, though convective gusts due to outflows are possible.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

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