A warm, muggy and unstable air mass was in place across eastern Kentucky on July 18th as a wavering front remained northwest of the Lower Ohio River. The first storm cluster of the day fired over central Kentucky during the early afternoon hours before moving into eastern Kentucky.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A warm, muggy and unstable air mass was in place across eastern Kentucky on July 18th as a wavering front remained northwest of the Lower Ohio River. The first storm cluster of the day fired over central Kentucky during the early afternoon hours before moving into eastern Kentucky. This initial round of storms impacted areas primarily north of the Hal Rogers Parkway during the late afternoon and early evening. The combination of dry air in the mid-levels and sufficient shear led to a a couple of strong bowing line segments with estimated peak wind gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range. The most numerous instances of wind damage, primarily downed trees and power lines, were observed in Estill, Lee, Montgomery and Bath counties. A gust of 61 mph was recorded at the RAWS site close to the Jackson National Weather Service Office. A second larger convective system dropped into the the Commonwealth during the mid-afternoon but then decayed as it moved onto the Cumberland Plateau. However, some cells with this system will still strong enough to bring a few instances of severe wind damage to portions of southcentral Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 2:00 PM EST, 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2023 Presently, several near severe thunderstorms are developing in Louisville's area and are tracking to the east-southeast. Through the afternoon, those storms will gradually track into Jackson CWA. A watch has been issued for the far southwest portions of the area. Presently, damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats with any of these afternoon storms. CAM solutions hint at a brief break in the thunderstorm activity once these initial cells track off to the east before an MCS tracks eastward overnight. Synoptically, a closed circulation is located over the central provinces of Canada with a large ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The mean flow is sandwiched between the two centers and within the mean flow; a perturbation is driving a surface low along a stalled boundary that draped across the Ohio Valley back to the Central Plains. Along that boundary is where the aforementioned MCSs will track this afternoon and overnight. The remnants of the overnight MCS will exit the CWA in the early hours of Wednesday. A brief break in the showers and storms is expected for Wednesday but clearing and instability building could take place and if CAMs continue to remain in agreement, another MCS is expected for Thursday afternoon. Presently, the system does appear to be progressive but efficient rainfall coupled with a potential mid- level moisture surge could bring hydro issues to the Cumberland Basin Wednesday into Thursday. Presently not expecting any water highlights but one could be issued in later shifts. The stalled boundary is expected to dissipate overnight Thursday but with the approach of a cold front, the area will be in the warm sector with continued threats for showers and storms overnight Thursday through the end of the period. Otherwise, the period will be highlighted by multiple rounds of showers and storms with heavy rain and the potential for damaging winds and large hail with near normal temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 529 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2023 The period will start with strong upper level ridging over the southwest and south central CONUS, and broad troughing from the north central CONUS to the East Coast. In between, we will reside under west northwest flow aloft near a wavering surface frontal boundary-- a favorable position for periodic thunderstorms. A couple of waves traveling through the trough will help to amplify it with time, with the ridging retrograding over the western CONUS. The amplifying pattern will send a cold front through our area approximately Friday-- a little bit slower than was earlier forecast. High pressure building in behind the front would allow for mostly dry and less humid weather for the last few days of the long term period. The main issues in the long term period will be timing of convective precip and the eventual frontal passage. As is usual, models struggle with MCS evolution, with cascading effects further out in time. The best forecast seems to be one of moderated POPs until models hopefully latch on better in the nearer term. If trends for a later fropa were to continue, dry and cooler weather could be delayed a bit longer in later forecasts. The most recent model runs have shifted further south and west with the greatest threat of heavy rainfall on Wednesday and Wednesday night. In terms of severe wx threat, it can't be ruled out Thursday and Thursday night, but it's too early to stress it due to a lack of confidence in the forecast details at that time range. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2023 VFR conditions exist across all TAF sites at the moment; however, as convection develops and tracks eastward, terminals KSME and KLOZ could begin to see TSRA with reduced VISBY. Presently, there's a TEMPO at KSME for the thunderstorms that're tracking toward the terminal through 21Z. The remaining TAF sites will have VCTS through the remainder of the afternoon but mainly after 20Z for expected thunderstorm development. A brief lull in activity is expected before another round of showers and storms move through the region around 00Z. Precipitation is expected to taper off toward 06Z or 07Z but lingering MVFR CIGS will remain in place through the remainder of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...VORST
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 301 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-085>088-104-106>120-191200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Laurel-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe- Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher- Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, London, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 301 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible at times through tonight, some of which could bring gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorms are expected at times Wednesday through Friday evening. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms over eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon, and area wide on Monday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Wednesday through Thursday night. Some storms may also contain strong winds or hail on Thursday and Thursday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of storm damage, hail, or flooding today. KYZ079-083-084-191200- Pulaski-Wayne-McCreary- Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, Monticello, Stearns, and Whitley City 301 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible at times through tonight, some of which could bring damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorms are possible at times Wednesday through Friday evening. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms over eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon, and area wide on Monday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Wednesday through Thursday night. Some storms may also contain strong winds or hail on Thursday and Thursday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of storm damage, hail, or flooding today. VORST/GEERTSON
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
305 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023
KYZ068-069-079-080-181945-
Jackson KY-Rockcastle KY-Laurel KY-Pulaski KY-
305 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Laurel, north central Pulaski, western Jackson and Rockcastle
Counties through 345 PM EDT...
At 305 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Bee Lick, or 15 miles east of Liberty, moving east
at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Bandy around 315 PM EDT.
Indian Lakes Park, Gum Sulphur, Ottowa, Bee Lick, Quail and
Willailla around 320 PM EDT.
Maretburg, Spiro, Bromo and Wabp around 325 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Hiatt, Lake
Linville, Renfro Valley, Sand Springs, Mount Vernon, Hummel, Wildie,
Muellersville, Roundstone, Orlando, Flat Rock, Burr, Conway, Pine
Hill, Bummer, Dudley Station, Climax, Donaro, Withers, Sinks,
Disputanta, Gauley, Johnetta, Goochland, Cooksburg, Loam, Robinet,
Threelinks, Eglon, Jep Hill, Dango and Horse Lick.
THIS INCLUDES Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile
markers 54 and 71.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central Kentucky.
&&
LAT...LON 3736 8456 3733 8451 3734 8450 3748 8444
3747 8438 3750 8435 3751 8436 3751 8426
3752 8425 3755 8401 3728 8398 3728 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 265DEG 35KT 3738 8466
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CMCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
336 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023
KYZ044-050-051-058-059-182000-
Montgomery KY-Estill KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-Powell KY-
336 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Powell,
Montgomery, western Bath, northwestern Estill and central Fleming
Counties through 400 PM EDT...
At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Paris to near Winchester to
near Richmond. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Klondike, Prewitt, Wades Mill, Levee, Grassy Lick and Sideview
around 345 PM EDT.
Mount Sterling, Camargo, Sharpsburg, Gatewoods Station, Palmer,
Fox and Judy around 350 PM EDT.
Jeffersonville, Howards Mill, Cressy, Upper Spencer, Coons
Station, Lower Spencer, Bethel, Iron Mound, Oggs Station and
Ewington around 355 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Owingsville, Clay
City, Sherburne, Peeled Oak, Virden, Powell Valley, Crooks, Kendall
Springs, Preston and Waltersville.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 13 and 18.
Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 105 and 123.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3809 8370 3770 8405 3770 8409 3775 8408
3778 8411 3781 8408 3781 8412 3784 8410
3784 8408 3782 8407 3785 8406 3783 8400
3787 8403 3787 8402 3793 8397 3812 8408
3830 8385 3835 8386 3835 8387 3839 8375
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 249DEG 40KT 3820 8414 3798 8411 3777 8429
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
VORSTThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:46 UTC.
22 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees were blown down along KY-2004 around the 400 and 600 blocks near the community of Sand Gap.
Numerous trees were blown down along US-60 from 4670 US-60 to the Bath County Line. Portions of the high way were closed for tree removal. A tree also fell on a house in this area, though no injuries were reported.
The Bath County emergency manager reported numerous tree blown down in the county.
Power lines were reportedly blown down along Richmond Rd (KY-52) near the Madison-Estill county line.
A tree was reportedly blown down in the backyard or a residence near West Irvine.
A tree was blown down at the entrance of Mountain Crest Apartments north of Irvine.
A tree was blown down around the 4000 block of KY-1209 near the Jackson-Estill county line.
A snapped tree limb reportedly fell onto a power line on Tipton Ridge.
Two vehicles were trapped by fallen trees and a power line was blown down on Lower Licking Road. No injuries were reported.
Multiple trees were blown down along KY-587 and KY-11 south of the city of Beattyville.
A large tree branch was blown down on Rose Bend Road near the community of Bethany.
A large tree reportedly fell and blocked Tom Rose Branch Road near the community of Bethany.
Two picnic tables were flipped over and moved about 30 feet at the intersection of Terrill Fork and Holly roads.
A tree was blown down about a mile up Murphy Fork Road from the intersection with KY-1010 near Hazel Green.
Multiple trees were blown down on KY-1812 atop Frozen Hill.
NWS employees at WFO Jackson estimated wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph at times for an approximately 5 minute period from 5:03 PM to 5:08 PM.
The JCAK2 Jackson RAWS station reported a peak wind gust of 61 mph.
A tree was blown down along SE Licking River Road near the intersection with Higgins Branch Road just south of Royalton.
A tree was blown down onto a fence along Gum Sulphur Road in the vicinity of Broadhead Road.
A tree and powerlines were blown down in East Bernstadt at KY-3434 near the intersection of Noelle Road.
A tree was blown down onto powerlines near the 160 Southland Drive on the south side of the city of London.
Tyner Fire Department reported a tree blown down in the Daniel Boone National Forecast blocking Turkey Foot Road near the intersection with KY-587. The fire department removed the tree.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1122832, 1122839, 1122863, 1122844, 1122848, 1122859, 1122869, 1122865, 1122870, 1122871, 1122872, 1122873, 1122876, 1122831, 1122882, 1122889, 1122891, 1122898, 1122912, 1122944, 1123006, 1122988.