Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, April 1 to 4, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
203 AM PDT Sat Apr 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and windy conditions will prevail through
today. Another winter system is taking shape in the eastern
Pacific and will pass across the region this Sunday and Monday.
This will produce another round of snow accumulations across
Nevada and along with much colder conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday

Moisture continues to stream across northern NV causing light snow
showers through today. These showers will be able to produce
snow amounts of an inch or two in the higher valleys around Jarbidge.
The mountains will once again be the big winner with the northern
most ranges seeing over half a foot of fresh snowfall. Winds will
be gusty for today and Saturday with average gusts in 30s mph
range with occasional stronger gusts possible reaching to 40 mph.

Sunday will see the arrival of a potent winter system to the Great
Basin. This system will spread showers from north to south slowly
through Sunday covering the whole of northern and central NV no
later than the evening. The heaviest showers associated with this
system will be along the cold front at least initially. This front
become more diffuse during it passage with the swath of heavier
showers matching this trend. During Sunday night it is this system
seems to stall with showers remaining across NV. The initially
warmer conditions as this system passes through will see the lower
to mid valleys in NV start as rain before transitioning to snow.
This will shift will also happen gradually north to south with
northern NV shifting by later afternoon and central NV by the
early evening. The shower activity will continue into Monday with
snow amounts in the Long Term section. Winds will be gusty ahead
of and along the cold front with gusts in the 20s to 30s mph
range. Once the front becomes more diffuse the winds will weaken
with gusts in the teens to 20s mph range.

Temperatures are on the relatively warm for today highs in the
40s to 50s and lows in the 20 and 30s for most locations. Sunday
will start off warm with highs in the 40s and 50s ahead of the
cold front. Once the cold front passes expect the temperatures to
fall by 10 to 20 degrees.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday

Another trough will begin to tumble out of the Pacific Northwest
Sunday heading into Monday. This will lead to snow showers
starting Sunday night, but picking up and continuing during the
day Monday. The inflection point of the trough will have dug as
far south as Las Vegas by Monday afternoon. For Monday snow
totals, valleys across Elko, Lander, Eureka, White Pine and
eastern portions of Humboldt county will likely see 1-4 inches.
Higher elevation valleys will see snow amounts in the 3-5 inch
range, with highest mountains and summits seeing 6-12 inches. Snow
wont be the only story with this system. As the trough digs
throughout the day, winds will be breezy to gusty across much of
the area. Winds will generally gust in the 25-35 mph range with
occasional higher gusts possible. This will likely contribute to
blowing and drifting of any new snow that falls and could reduce
visibilities. High temperatures will generally be in the 20s and
30s, with lows in the teens and 20s. Some colder valleys will drop
into the single digits.

A short wave ejecting through the trough, will allow for more
snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday. In general the same valleys as
listed above will see up to 1 inch. Some valleys across Lander and
Eureka may see 1-2 inches. Highest mountains and summits will see
another 3-5 inches, such as the Ruby Mountain/East Humboldt Range.
High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s, with lows in the
teens and 20s. There will also be more widespread lows in the
single digits, across eastern and central Nevada. Most likely
areas that pick up some fresh snow. Wednesday highs and lows are
similar to Tuesday, with some 40s creeping into the western
counties in the area.

Thursday a ridging pattern looks to work its way into the region
through Saturday. This will bring dry weather to the state during
the stretch. Highs will be in the 40s on Thursday, 40s and 50s on
Friday and Saturday. Some 60s may creep into Humboldt and Nye
county, time will tell. Lows will be in the teens and 20s Thursday
night, and in the 20s and 30s Friday and Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon
with some mid to high level clouds around. Gusty west winds will
increase in the afternoon, strongest at KWMC, KEKO, and KBAM,
where winds could gust to around 30kts at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The snowpack remains extremely high across the
silver state especially at mid to high elevations comparable to
1983 and higher than 2017. Warmer conditions is causing an
increase in snowmelt for the weekend. The expected colder
conditions for Monday with the arrival of the winter system will
lead to lower snowmelt rates. Delays in snowmelt is becoming
increasingly worry some as a significant warmup is increasingly
likely as spring continues on. Climate wise this happens no later
than mid May which has always seen the snowpack rapidly dissipate
regardless of amount. If we were to reach that date with current
snowpack that would represent the worse case for flood concerns.
Mild warm conditions between then and now would allow for a longer
duration of melt and drastically lower flood risk and impacts.
For now ponding, muddy conditions, washed out roads, and
eventually river flooding continue to be the main concern as
Nevada heads deeper into the spring and temperatures eventually
warm up. More dramatic impacts would occur only if a rapid
snowmelt event occurs before the snowpack has time to slow melt.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

99/90/91