Hail in Nebraska, May 28, 2023

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
410 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Key Messages:

* Off and on showers and thunderstorms look to persist through
  tonight. Some of this activity could be on the strong side and
  produce locally heavy rainfall.

* Memorial Day appears to be mainly dry and warm, though better
  chances for showers and thunderstorms could arrive overnight.

* Unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through much of the
  next work week. Much like last week, overall severe potential
  appears pretty low, though there could be pockets of heavy
  rainfall.

* After a slightly cooler day today, most of the next 7 days looks
  to have highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Forecast Details:
A band of showers and weak storms, as well as additional isolated
to widely scattered activity, impacted the CWA this morning into
early aftn, but has since weakened. In it's wake, subsidence and
clearing skies has allowed for temps to rise into the mid 70s to
lower 80s - which is essentially around the convective temp per
area soundings. Also, WV shows the local area within the S fringes
of weakening upper trough slowing moving through the N High Plains
into the Dakotas. These factors have allowed scat convection to
redevelop over W and S portions of the CWA over the past hr, and
expect this trend to continue as instability continues to incr
through early eve. Short-term CAMs have been pretty consistent in
this general convective trend/idea, but have varied to some degree
on timing and placement. Seems reasonable to think that with the
moderate CAPE (MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg) and weak shear in
place (effective shear AOB 30kt), convection will be pulsey in
nature and tend to produce outflow that promotes upscale growth
and amalgamation of convective cores with time early this eve.
Several HRRR/RRFS runs have depicted this, and the HREF even
produced a QPF bullseye over the CWA for this eve. Storms could be
marginally severe through this eve with the main risk being
quarter size hail and 60 MPH wind gusts. PWATs 125-150 percent of
normal, H85-H3 mean wind less than 20kt, weak Corfidi vectors, and
"tall, skinny CAPE" profiles all support notion of slow-moving
storms with efficient warm season rain processes. Wouldn't be
surprised if there are 1-3 counties that receive heavy rainfall of
2-4", perhaps locally higher, as indicated by 12Z HREF and some
RRFS runs. Most of our area, with the exception of W counties,
could handle 1-3" fairly well. However, anything more than that in
only a few hrs, or heavy rates over our W counties, and we could
have some flash flooding concerns. Convection should weaken and
drift E with time tonight, but at least weak elevated instability
persists through dawn.

As suspected yesterday, it still looks like most, if not all, will
stay dry for the daytime hours of Memorial Day owing to shortwave
ridging/subsidence. Good amounts of sunshine, lighter winds, and
temperatures in the low to mid 80s will make it feel pretty warm, so
hydrate accordingly. Both SREF and HREF suggest greater potential
for showers/storms to develop, but more likely move in from the W,
in the 00Z-06Z Tue time frame. Weak forcing and shear should
preclude any severe weather.

General model consensus is that a summer-like upper pattern will
prevail through much of the new work week.  Primary polar jet will
be well N across Canada, while southern stream - which looks to
remain active - will cut from the Baja into the Rio Grande Valley,
well SW of the area. This leaves the Central Plains in unusually
nebulous mid-upper flow by late Spring standards with day-to-day
sensible weather/rain chances largely driven by weak perturbations
and/or convectively induced MCVs within very weak zonal flow. Sfc
and deep layer moisture (and resultant instability) should be
sufficient for vigorous convection, but deep layer shear (outside
of any mesoscale enhancements) will likely be too weak for
organized severe weather - despite the region essentially within
peak climatological severe weather season. Much of the area is
within a Marginal Risk per SPC Day 3 Outlook as models hint at the
potential for a weak frontal boundary and weak upper disturbance,
but again, details are sketchy and the current setup doesn't
appear to favor anything really intense or organized.

Latest model blend continues to depict a deamplifying upper trough
ejecting from the Four Corners region onto the Plains sometime
late in the week or early next weekend. Frankly, this setup
doesn't appear to be too dissimilar from what we've had this
weekend, with strong blocking high pressure over Upper MS
Valley/Great Lakes and weak troughing over the central/eastern
Gulf into SE CONUS. Furthermore, models keep the primary upper jet
streak well SW of the area over the S High Plains. Latest NBM
gives likely PoPs off and on in the Day 4-7 time frame, which
seems a bit overdone, so tried to pare it back to when the upper
disturbance is most influentual locally.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Main aviation concern is the potential for off and on convection
through late this evening.

Band of weakening convection will continue to slip E/NE, likely
clearing GRI within the next hr, or so. Expect at least a couple
hrs of clearing skies before heating leads to additional scattered
tstm development around 21-23Z. Didn't have enough confidence in
timing/coverage to go with prevailing TSRA just yet, but will
likely need to amend for at least 2-3hrs of convection late aftn
into the evening. Within the convection, could see both MVFR CIGs
and VSBYs, but outside of convection, believe VFR will prevail.
Best tstm potential generally shifts E/SE of the terminals by
around 06Z, though can't completely rule out an iso lingering
storm through dawn Mon AM. Dry conditions and generally clearing
mid to high levels expected by daytime hrs Mon, though will
probably see FEW-SCT cumulus around 2-4K ft by midday. Winds
outside of convection will generally run from SE to SSW 10-15kt,
with aftn gusts up to 25kt possible where clouds clear out.
Confidence: Wind/Flt Cat - medium, VCTS/tstms - low.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
337 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
291200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
337 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A few strong to
marginally strong severe thunderstorms will be possible through
this evening, mainly for areas near and west of the Highway 281
corridor. Hail up to the size of quarters and winds gusts near 60
MPH are the primary concerns. Additionally, pockets of heavy
rainfall from slow moving thunderstorms will also be possible,
which could result in localized flash flooding.

Minor flooding remains possible along the Republican River in
Furnas County and possibly into western Harlan County. Please
refer to the Flood Warning for additional information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Minor flooding remains possible along the Republican River
upstream of Harlan County Lake in Furnas and western Harlan
counties into early Monday, but in the absence of additional heavy
rainfall tonight, impacts should remain very limited.

Off and on chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast
through most of next week, including Memorial Day. However, no
one day appears to be complete washout, at this time, or present
a significant risk for severe weather. There is currently a
Marginal Risk for severe weather on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight.
Rainfall reports are appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Thies

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
415 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

KSZ018-282145-
Osborne KS-
415 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Osborne
County through 445 PM CDT...

At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Luray, or 25 miles north of Russell, moving north at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Osborne, and rural areas near the Highway 281 corridor south of
  Osborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 9860 3918 9879 3947 9883 3947 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 184DEG 17KT 3925 9872

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Pfannkuch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
430 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

KSZ018-282200-
Osborne KS-
430 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Osborne
County through 500 PM CDT...

At 430 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Natoma, or 22 miles northeast of Emmeram, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Osborne
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9886 3921 9905 3948 9899 3947 9884
      3932 9881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 209DEG 15KT 3925 9895

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Pfannkuch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
445 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

KSZ018-282215-
Osborne KS-
445 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Osborne
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Osborne, or 33 miles north of Russell, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Osborne and Portis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 9863 3930 9877 3956 9886 3956 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 184DEG 15KT 3936 9872

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Pfannkuch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
450 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

KSZ005-006-017-018-282215-
Rooks KS-Phillips KS-Smith KS-Osborne KS-
450 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Rooks,
southern Smith, northwestern Osborne and southeastern Phillips
Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 450 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Kirwin to 6 miles
northeast of Alton. Movement was north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Smith Center, Kensington, Agra, Kirwin, Gaylord, Athol, Harlan and
Cedar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9913 3976 9853 3946 9882 3952 9913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 198DEG 20KT 3957 9906 3951 9884

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Pfannkuch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
505 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

KSZ019-282230-
Mitchell KS-
505 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Mitchell County through 530 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Victor, or 11 miles northwest of Lincoln, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Hunter and Victor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 9842 3930 9809 3922 9814 3922 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 196DEG 8KT 3916 9831

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Pfannkuch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
525 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

NEZ083-282300-
Harlan NE-
525 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Harlan County
through 600 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Orleans to near Harlan County Dam. Movement was
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alma, Orleans, Republican City, Huntley and Harlan County Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Harlan County Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9940 4023 9918 4009 9918 4000 9919
      4000 9938 4001 9941 4015 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 188DEG 9KT 4015 9943 4001 9929

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Pfannkuch