Hail in Nebraska, July 22, 2023

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Key Messages:

* Widely scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
  evening. Some of these storms may become severe. Some risk for
  the entire area, but main threat area is near/south of the state
  line. Main timeframe for severe weather is 4pm to 9pm.

* Next week will be the warmest week of the year so far. Heat
  index values over 105 degrees are possible for portions of the
  area each day Monday through Thursday.

* Low thunderstorm chances return in the latter half of next
  week.

Details:
A couple showers persist across central Nebraska early this
morning, but the overwhelming majority of our area have remained
dry, as expected. A few more showers could develop around
sunrise, but this would favor areas to our east. The warming trend
continues today, and many locations will see temperatures
approach/exceed 90 degrees.

A low-amplitude wave will drop southward through the central
Plains, providing some lift for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. The highest
probability for storms is near and south of the KS/NE state line
(as advertised by CAMs and HREF ensemble). Convective parameters
will be supportive of severe updrafts producing large hail and
damaging wind (MLCAPE 1000-2000j/kt and effective shear ~30kts).
Storm mode will be supercellular/multicellular with storms
generally moving northwest to southeast. SPC has added a "Slight
Risk" to portions of KS that have the highest likelihood to see
severe storms, but the severe risk cannot be ruled out across the
rest of the area as well.

The ridge over the western CONUS expands Sunday into Monday, and
increasing midlevel temperatures should squash any meaningful
chances for thunderstorms from Sunday until at least Wednesday
evening. This increased ridging will also set us up for a quite
warm week. Many locations are expected to soar into the upper 90s
and low 100s by Monday through Thursday. Dewpoints in the 60s will
likely push heat indices over 105 degrees for portions of the
area each of these days. That being said, there isn't enough
confidence in coverage of 105+ degree heat indices to warrant any
heat headlines just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Debated about keeping in VCTS this afternoon as HiRes models have
isolated/widely scattered convection this afternoon. The models
try to form a few isolated storms around I-80 and move them SSE
into the evening. The winds will start off westerly and will go
VRB before becoming westerly again tomorrow morning. Outside of
any convection the TAF sites are looking VFR through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
243 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
231200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
243 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area this
afternoon and evening. Any storms that develop will have the
potential to become severe. The main hazards with any storms will
be hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts over 60 MPH.
While the entire outlook area has the potential for thunderstorms,
the highest threat for severe weather will be for areas along and
south of Interstate 80. The main timeframe for severe weather is
3pm to 9pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hot and dry weather returns next week across the outlook area.
Widespread heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees are forecasted
Monday through Thursday.

Low chances for thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday
evening through Friday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send in any reports of hail and strong
winds this afternoon and evening.  Your reports are appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
222 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

NEZ072-082-221945-
Gosper NE-Furnas NE-
222 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Gosper
and northeastern Furnas Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 222 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Holbrook, or 27 miles southwest of Lexington, moving
south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Arapahoe and Holbrook around 240 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 9998 4052 9998 4054 9986 4023 9971
      4017 10006 4044 10008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 348DEG 19KT 4041 9996

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Thies