Tornado and Hail in Nebraska, July 18, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
320 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms move off the higher terrain of the Black Hills and southeast
  Wyoming, impacting portions of western and north central
  Nebraska this evening and overnight. A few strong or briefly
  sever storms are possible.

- Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday through Friday, with at
  least some threat for severe weather persisting.

- Dry conditions prevail into the weekend through Tuesday of next
  week along with warming temperatures and the potential for the
  first triple digit heat of the Summer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

The upper flow over the region has become more zonal as an upper low
moves across southern Saskatchewan and an upper ridge centered over
New Mexico. Early morning convection across the east as well as
stratus across the west this morning has resulted in a substantial
capping inversion, especially across the southwest. MLCAPEs are
forecast to range from 2000-3000 J/KG by early evening east of the
Black Hills into south central SD into northern NE and down through
central NE. Mesoscale models differ in timing and location, with
POPS limited to 20-30 percent this evening and overnight. Based on
mid afternoon development just south and east of the Black Hills and
also in southeast WY, the western Sandhills and Sheridan and Cherry
County are likely to be affected initially. The SPC mesoanalysis
large hail parameter does favor the potential for very large hail
across north central Nebraska this evening, while minimized across
the central Sandhills and southwest. SPC also now has a slight risk
for severe storms across much of Sheridan and Cherry County for this
evening.

Wednesday, a weak cold front will push through. Highs will reach the
low to mid 80s. There will be a chance for morning showers and
thunderstorms across the northeast during the morning, with a better
chance for development during the afternoon in vicinity of the cold
front. SPC has a slight risk for sever storms generally east of a
line from Hayes Center through North Platte and O'Neill. Storms
should diminish by mid evening, although a slight chance to remain
across the southwest overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

A reinforcement of cooler air arrives Thursday behind the front with
highs only from the 70s to near 80. Guidance continues to indicate a
focused area of storm development beginning in southeast WY and the
western Panhandle, then southeast into the western Sandhills and
southwest NE during the afternoon and evening. 0-6km bulk shear is
forecast to reach near 50kts, with a lack of instability. MUCAPEs
are less than 100 J/KG except south of I80 where values may exceed
500. General thunderstorms are expected at this time, although
significant rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast
panhandle into southwest NE. WPC has a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall south of a line from Alliance through North Platte and a
slight risk of excessive rainfall across the far southwest including
Imperial.

Thunderstorm chances remain Friday into Friday night with northwest
flow aloft and sufficient deep layer shear from 35-40kts. Develop
and coverage however looks very isolated.

An upper level ridge across the desert Southwest will build north
and east into Nebraska Saturday through Tuesday, as winds aloft
weaken. The intense heat across the Southern and Southwestern U.S.
will begin to be felt across western Nebraska with highs reaching
the low to mid 90s by Sunday and Monday and mid 90s Tuesday. A few
100 degrees highs are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

The next chance of thunderstorms will be this evening and
overnight, with the better chances expected across north central
Nebraska. Have introduced a PROB30 at KVTN from 03Z-08Z. At KLBF,
TSRA is not included attm. However, MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible, especially across southwest into
central Nebraska from 10Z-15Z. Have introduced TEMPO for 3SM BR
OVC003 at KLBF from 11Z-14Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
244 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-191945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
244 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 /144 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight across western and north
central Nebraska. The risk of severe weather is marginal which
implies isolated strong to severe storms are possible. The hazards
are large hail and wind damage with any storms which become severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Friday. Although the
risk of severe weather is low, an isolated severe storm may
develop. Large hail and wind damage are the severe weather
concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 AM     Hail             12 N Brewster           42.11N 99.87W
07/18/2023  M2.25 inch       Brown              NE   Public

            2.25 inch hail lasting approximately 3 to 5
            minutes.

&&