A severe thunderstorm move southeast out of western South Dakota the afternoon of 26 July. Storm moved across Dawes County in the northern Nebraska Panhandle before exiting into west central Nebraska.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CYS wrote it up.
A severe thunderstorm move southeast out of western South Dakota the afternoon of 26 July. Storm moved across Dawes County in the northern Nebraska Panhandle before exiting into west central Nebraska.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cheyenne, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 2:24 PM MST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 324 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Current Visible Satellite loop shows some scattered clouds across the mountains and east central Wyoming, with some lingering smoke near Lusk and Chadron Nebraska. Surface observations show a nice warm up this afternoon with temperatures in the 80s in the high valleys and high plains. Expect a pretty quiet weather through this evening with a very low chance of thunderstorms over the northern and central Nebraska Panhandle this evening. May even see a strong thunderstorms over this area if convection gets going due to 45 to 55 knots of 0-6km shear and MLCAPE between 700 to 1000 j/kg. However, increasing subsidence aloft and near surface smoke is making this a low confidence forecast, so kept POP and Prob thunder around 10 to 15 percent from east of Lusk to Chadron Nebraska. May need to increase the probability of thunderstorms this evening if activity increases around the Black Hills to the north. Hot temperatures look likely for Monday across most of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Upper level high, currently positioned across the eastern Great Basin Region, is forecast to push east into the four corners area and New Mexico for Monday. 700mb temperatures respond and increase over 20c west of the I-25 corridor, and 16c to 19c along and east of I-25. This will translate to 90s at the surface during the afternoon with a few locations at the century mark (Scottsbluff, Torrington, Douglas). Further south and east along the Pine Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge, models are showing surface winds shifting into the south and increasing in the afternoon. This tends to be light upslope and has a cooling effect in these areas, so kept highs in the low to mid 90s for Cheyenne, Kimball, Sidney, and Chadron. Models continue to show an increase in thunderstorms over east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle Monday evening as a weak shortwave feature slides southeast on the northern periphery of the strong upper level high. High res guidance is actually going a little more aggressive with convection Monday evening ahead of this shortwave, so increased POP up to 20 percent further south along the North Platte River Valley. Can not rule out some nocturnal convection into early Tuesday morning as a weak midlevel cool front slides south across southeast Wyoming. Tuesday should be a transition day as we head into a more unsettled weather pattern by mid to late week. All models show a backdoor cold front pushing south and eventually southwest across northern Wyoming and Montana Tuesday afternoon as a Canadian cold front moves into the northern United States. This will briefly weaken the strong upper level high and force it to drift south for a few days. Expect surface winds to shift into the east and northeast during the day with slightly cooler temperatures expected. PW's will increase through the day with values near 1 inch by Tuesday evening due to decent moisture advection. Kept POP around 20 to 25 percent for widely scattered thunderstorms across most of southeast Wyoming and later in the evening for western Nebraska. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 No major changes to the long term forecast with this update. Overall, we are still looking at cooler temperatures with the potential for severe convection returning for the second half of the upcoming week. An impressively strong ridge is likely to remain parked over the southwestern US through the week ahead. However, the axis of this ridge is expected to retrograde slightly westward mid week, opening the door to more active weather with northwest flow over deep moisture. Wednesday looks like a transition day as an unseasonably vigorous closed low ejects eastward along the US/Canada border. It's trailing cold front should knock several degrees off of the 700-mb temperatures, leading to cooler highs Wednesday especially further east. Areas west of the Laramie range may be fairly similar to Tuesday's hot temps. PW values will continue to climb as deeper moisture from the Pacific is advected in over the top of ridge. Simultaneously, the backdoor surface fronts should turn the winds at the surface more northerly, allowing for low-level moisture to creep in to the east. Thus, expecting isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop, most likely closer to the Colorado border. The severe potential looks limited right now, but this could change as we get closer. Thursday and Friday continue to look favorable for strong to severe convection, although it is still early. Most models show low level winds flipping around to the SE, helping to draw in deeper moisture. Ensemble mean PW values are pretty impressive by 00z Friday. Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means exceed 1.0 inch at KCYS, which is above the 90th percentile of climatology and approaching the 97.5th percentile in some areas. It's still a little early to get too much into the details on convective parameters, but the GFS paints a concerning picture with abundant moisture and instability underneath deep layer shear approaching 50 knots with the northwest flow aloft. This scenario would likely lead to a more significant outbreak of severe convection. The ECMWF is a not as concerning, though still looks like active weather. This is characterized by even higher moisture content, but less instability and less shear with the stronger flow a little more off to the northeast. However, it would still likely lead to numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain and abundant small hail, but less of a severe threat. Friday looks fairly similar, though most models agree that moisture should back off somewhat. Trending drier for Saturday as the ridge amplifies and shifts very slightly back eastward. The NBM may be drying us out a little too quickly though, so added some slight chance PoPs back in to at least keep the mention of storms in the forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 VFR to MVFR conditions expected across the terminals today, with visibility reductions due to the advection of smoke from the wildfires across Canada. Have begun to see some improvement of the surface concentrations with the westerly flow across KCYS. However, these improvements are most likely temporary as the winds are expected to shift back to a north/northwesterly flow later on today. Kept most areas in around 6sm and smoke through tomorrow before a southerly component to the wind takes hold around the early to mid-morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Minimal fire weather concerns for the rest of this weekend and through next week. Warming trend will continue into Monday resulting in hot temperatures and lower relative humidities. Daytime humidities will likely lower between 10 to 15 percent along and west of the Interstate 25 corridor. Winds will increase late in the morning through the afternoon with gust between 30 to 40 MPH possible. However, green fuels and some recent precipitation (mainly eastern zones) will greatly hinder the potential for rapid fire growth. Unsettled and cooler weather is expected to push back into the Front Range by Wednesday and Thursday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...MN AVIATION...MRD FIRE WEATHER...TJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 328 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-170930- Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County- Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County- Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County- Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County- North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains- Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County- East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County- North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County- Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range- Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills- Central Laramie County-East Laramie County- 328 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY Widespread high temperatures 90 to possibly 100 degrees possible across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle Monday. Cooler and wetter conditions forecast Tuesday through the end of the week. .Spotter information statement... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:45 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail reported by spotter 5 miles north northwest of Chadron. Quarters to half dollar size reported.
Quarter sized hail reported by spotter 4 miles east southeast of Chadron. Lasted one minute.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1100648, 1100649.