Tornado and Hail in Kansas, July 16, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
331 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Convection over NE KS this morning has thrown out a prominent
outflow boundary, currently working its way south to along a line
from KSLN to KEMP to just north of Iola. The western edge of the
outflow is stalling or washing out over central KS, leading to this
portion of the boundary just waggling over central KS for the
afternoon hours. An increasing unstable airmass is located just
south of the boundary, with convergence along the central KS
boundary expected to lead to isolated or scattered storms developing
during max heating, by around 23z. Some question on how widespread
this convection will be, given a warm elevated mixed layer (CAP).
But think isolated storms will develop during max heating. Could
even see development delayed until the weak impulse in central Neb
drops south and interacts with this boundary, by around 23z. The
combination of moderate instability (3500-4000 J/kg SBCAPE) and bulk
shear around 40-45 kts, and decent directional shear, will lead to a
chance of any storm that develops to become a severe supercell with
large hail up to 2 inches in diameter possible. Inverted-V soundings
also suggests a damaging wind threat as the storms evolve later this
evening, potentially propagating to the south.

Propagation of the convection should be to the south, but some
uncertainty on how far south this convection will get, but think if
a storm develops, it may make it south into south central KS by
later this evening, with strong to severe wind gusts possible.
Most of the convection will be diurnally driven, and diminish as
it moves south into warmer temps aloft, and with the loss of max
heating. If you have any outdoor plans, stay weather aware. When
thunder roars, go indoors.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Highlights:

1) Warm up to start the week (around 100 on Tuesday)

2) Thunderstorm potential this evening

Challenges:

1) Precipitation chances and respective coverage today

2) Temperatures, dewpoints and resulting heat indices on Tuesday

Changes:

1) Precipitation chances and timing this eve-Mon

2) Dewpoints on Monday

A trough is situated over Ontario to the upper/mid Mississippi River
Valleys, Great Lakes to the southeast CONUS while a ridge is set up
over the Desert Southwest to Great Basin and British Columbia. There
is an eastward track for both the trough and ridge for Monday.
Another waves moves onshore on Monday which essentially tracks east
and eventually helps squash the ridge. This results in a wave for
Tuesday as the western wave tracks to join the eastern trough.

Hot and humid conditions are anticipated to return early this week
as the ridge shifts east over the area. Warm air advection amplifies
for Tuesday with temperatures around 100 degrees; ensembles indicate
anomalous temperatures at 700 and 850mb Tuesday into Wednesday. Heat
indices are not anticipated to be as high as last week, but they are
calculated to be from 100-105 on Monday and around 105 on Tuesday.
This could lead to the need for an advisory. Given moisture
advection on Tuesday, the NBM may be under doing dewpoints which
occurred last week as well. While the values were not increased, it
is possible that they may need to be bumped up. Since there is still
time to modify the temperatures and dewpoints, any headline
decisions will be held off for now. If you have to work or spend
time outdoors, make sure to drink plenty of fluids and avoid
strenuous activities during the afternoon if possible. On the plus
side, breezy winds are anticipated especially over southern Kansas
at speeds of 20-30 mph ahead of the boundary. These winds will help
what it feels like. Given these winds, wet bulb globe temperatures
(WBGT) are calculated to be lower on Tuesday through some of the
Flint Hills compared to Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Highlights:

1) Cooler by the end of the week

2) Off-and-on chances for showers and storms

Somewhat cooler air works in for Wednesday with a bigger push by the
end of the week into next weekend. Temperatures are forecast to drop
below seasonal normal with highs in the 80s. There are subtle
features that will move through during the end of the week as the
ridge builds again in the west. Periodic chances for showers and
storms are expected with these subtleties. Uncertainty remains in
the coverage and chances for any respective location thus stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Convection over NE KS has thrown out a prominent outflow boundary,
currently working its way south to along a line from KSLN to KEMP to
just north of Iola. Think the eastern portion of this outflow will
continue to push south, leading to a wind shift at KCNU within the
next hour or two. But think the western edge of the outflow will
stall over central KS, leading to this portion of the boundary just
waggling over central KS for the afternoon hours.  Increased
moisture and convergence along the central KS boundary will probably
lead to TSRA developing over central KS, for late this afternoon or
early this evening during max heating, by around 23z. Some question
on how widespread this convection will be, given some capping
issues. But think some isolated TSRA will develop, so will include a
VCTS and a tempo group for the KSLN and KRSL taf locations from 23z-
03z.

Propagation of the convection should be to the south, but some
uncertainty on how far south this convection will get, so will
include a VCTS for the KICT and KHUT Tafs as well.

Most of the convection will be diurnally driven, so expect VFR
conditions overnight into early on Mon.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  96  74 102 /  40  10  10   0
Hutchinson      67  96  74 105 /  40  10  10   0
Newton          68  95  74 102 /  40  10  10   0
ElDorado        67  94  74 100 /  30  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   69  95  74 101 /  30  10  10   0
Russell         66  97  73 102 /  30   0  10   0
Great Bend      66  96  73 102 /  40   0  10   0
Salina          67  95  73 104 /  40  10  10   0
McPherson       67  94  73 102 /  40  10  10   0
Coffeyville     68  95  74 102 /  30  30  10   0
Chanute         69  94  72 101 /  30  20  10   0
Iola            67  93  71 101 /  30  20  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    68  95  73 102 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10PM for north central and
portions of south central KS.

&&

MESOSCALE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...Juanita
LONG TERM...Juanita
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
424 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
424 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through
tonight along and west of the Kansas Turnpike. A few storms may be
severe. The main impacts with the strongest storms will be hail up
to golf ball size and wind gusts of up to 60 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible, and may result in minor localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Heat indices ranging from 100 to 105 will be possible across much
of the region Monday through Wednesday afternoon. The highest heat
indices around 105 are expected to occur on Tuesday.

Thursday through Saturday, storm chances will return to the region
as storm complexes enter central and eastern Kansas from the west.
Widespread severe weather is not expected with these storms at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated today and tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict