Drought in Nebraska, August 1 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1234 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Key Messages:

- Marginal threat for severe thunderstorms late tonight and again
  Tuesday night.

- Locally heavy rainfall possible with thunderstorms through
  midweek.

- Seasonal warmth, then trending much cooler with temperatures
  well below normal heading into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

The 15z SREF shows a high probability of fog overnight, above 80
percent in some areas of swrn/scntl Nebraska. A forecast update
is in place for this feature.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Convective complex moved out of the region to the east early this
morning , leaving central and western Nebraska under a bubble high with
a good amount of sunshine this afternoon. As has been the case over the
past several days, diurnal destabilization under a convective cap will
continue into this evening with little in the way of convective
development through early tonight. Convection firing along the front
range to our west will slowly move into western Nebraska later tonight.
0-6km bulk shear looks to be at or above 40kt and DCAPE values at
or below 1000J/kg so there will be an opportunity for scattered
thunderstorms west of Highway 83 with an isolated report of large
hail or wind damage, but with the low level jet shunted off to our
southeast forcing will be less robust and expect severe potential
will be marginal at best through the overnight hours.

Expect remnant convection with an MCV will move across central Nebraska
tomorrow with a chance for showers/thunder ending from west to east by
Tuesday afternoon. By tomorrow night the upper ridge over the
Rockies will begin the process of losing amplitude with
indications for energy spilling over the crest of the ridge to
move across Nebraska and support another opportunity for deep
convection Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. With the core of
the low level jet once again expected to be off to our southeast
and the best pool of instability generally south of Interstate 80
and curling back up through the panhandle there is some
uncertainty as to how far north the convective threat will extend.
Will be served well by painting with a broad brush and
anticipating scattered thunderstorms Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night spreading in from the west with a potential severe threat
for large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall across
the majority of the area, mainly west of Hwy 83 and along/south of
I-80. Will attempt to better define threat areas over the next
few model runs.

High temperatures tomorrow will range from the low to mid 80s north of
Highway  to around 90 degrees south of I-80. Lows will generally be in
the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Ensembles indicate the faltering upper ridge with the along the Rockies
will continue to lose amplitude and give way to a low amplitude quasi-
zonal regime across the western US as we head into the weekend. This
will allow some monsoon moisture from the southwest to work into the
region with NAEFS precipitable water values heading above the 90th
percentile through midweek. Combined with a steady stream of short wave
energy spilling over the flattening ridge expect a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility of locally heavy
rainfall increasing through Thursday. A cold front is poised to move
through the region late in the week as a northern stream upper trof
starts to push down from the north. So after some seasonable warmth,
temperatures will be well below normal through the weekend with highs
generally in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

A couple aviation weather concerns arise across western and
central Nebraska, including low stratus/fog and showers/storms. A
wave of precip in the western panhandle will push east overnight,
but may dissipate in the process. Kept VC or tempo -RA due to
lower confidence. Greater potential exists for low stratus cloud
development and/or fog across southwest Neb, including KLBF.
Expect a period of IFR and possibly LIFR around sunrise. Ceilings
lift by mid-morning, then conditions should remain mostly dry
through the afternoon before the next round of storms arrives
after sunset.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
301 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-012015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
301 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 /201 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening across
western Nebraska and will spread eastward overnight. An isolated
severe thunderstorm is possible. The main hazards being strong winds
and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Near daily thunderstorm chances continue through this week. A couple
of storms could become severe Tuesday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Taylor