Montana, 2023Damaging Wind in Montana, June 4, 2023
June 4, 2023 · NWS GGW · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A continued stagnant weather pattern brought a round of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, with a couple of storms reaching severe levels.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A continued stagnant weather pattern brought a round of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, with a couple of storms reaching severe levels.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 4, 1:49 PM MST, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 4, 1:49 PM MST, 2 hours 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
249 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Daytime heating and ample low-level moisture from recent rainfall
are producing a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms again today
that will last into the evening. The greatest coverage is favored
over the higher terrain in Phillips and Petroleum counties, but
any wetting rains will be localized. Otherwise, there is weak
dynamics in place over the next few days where isolated convective
chances remain, but the focus will be on the warm temperatures.
While not quite enough to create a significant heat risk as long
as dew points drop slightly, there is high confidence that highs
will be near 90 with lows in the 60s for the next few days (about
15 degrees above normal for early June).
Some ridging currently over the area will slowly push east, with
another low pressure system and stationary front setting up over
the region by Thursday. This will bring slightly cooler
temperatures and increased thunderstorm chances. The focus is
currently over the higher terrain of central Montana, though there
is already moderate confidence for at least localized amounts of
1" or more over southern Phillips and Petroleum counties through
next weekend.
-Zanker
MORNING DISCUSSION:
With calm winds and low dewpoint depression, patchy fog is
expected across the western two thirds of our CWA this morning,
especially along the Milk River Valley. Significant visibility
reduction is not expect any fog that develops is expected to burn
off by 10 AM this morning.
Otherwise, there were no major changes to the going forecast with
the morning update. There was a slight reduction of QPF for this
afternoon which falls in line with the less than ideal convective
environment expected through tonight. Isolated showers are
possible today through early Thursday morning with minimal (<0.1
inch) accumulation generally expected.
-thor
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED: 2030Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the offing
again through this evening, particularly for KGGW. However,
minimal to no impacts are expected should they pass over.
Otherwise, just look for a few mid-level clouds.
WINDS: Prevailing out of the southeast at 5-15 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Multiple streams, creeks, and rivers continue to respond to
recent heavy rainfall received in the last few days. Updates from
emergency managers advise that water level rises have begun
slowing. Lowland flooding continues to occur with other streams near
bank level.
As some of the lowland flooding continues to work its way into
the river system, we have been monitoring downstream locations for
flooding potential. As of this update, Beaver Creek near Hinsdale
continues to slow in its rise, suggesting the current forecasted
crest of 16.8 ft (Moderate Flood Stage) is on track at the
moment. Downstream, the Milk River at Tampico is not currently
forecasted to reach flood stage but is rising faster than
previously expected which does bring some concern regarding the
final crest. Nonetheless, confidence remains low that Tampico will
rise above flood stage so no river flood products will be issued
with this update. Current guidance for the Milk River in Nashua is
on track with the crest expected to remain below flood stage.
Currently, the only location along the Milk River in our CWA
experiencing flooding is here in Glasgow where two separate crests
are forecasted over the next week. The first crest will be as a
result of the flooding around Hinsdale and Tampico including
Beaver Creek. As of 2 PM MDT, the Milk River at Glasgow is in
Minor Flood Stage and expect to remain within this level, cresting
over 28 ft by tonight before dropping slightly by Tuesday. This
rise has been faster than anticipated due to the extreme rainfall
in west- central Valley county flowing eastward, so will need to
closely monitor levels tonight as they approach moderate flood
stage (29 ft).
A second crest is expected later in the week as floodwaters
currently in Blaine county begin making their way downstream. The
only concern regarding the arrival of the second crest is it is
possible it may coincide with the heavy rainfall expected
Thursday/Friday. With the latest information available, it appears
unlikely that the Milk River will reach anything above Minor
Flood Stage for the second crest, however, this is a dynamic
situation and will be closely monitored during future shifts for
any changes.
The next concern for area-wide flooding is Thursday and Friday
with WPC placing our western zones in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall on Thursday. Storm total QPF values for Thursday through
Sunday have Petroleum, southern Phillips, and western Garfield
counties above 1 inch which may be locally higher depending on
afternoon convection.
Anyone planning outdoor activities should closely monitor the
latest forecasts and any possible flood advisory or warning that
may be issued. Alternate plans will need to be considered in order
to address public safety concerns.
Current headlines as of 2 PM Sunday:
-River Flood Warning for the Milk River at Glasgow until 3 PM
Friday.
-Flood Warning for Valley county including Hinsdale until 10 AM
Tuesday.
-Flood Warning Garfield County, including Jordan until 10 AM
Monday.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
weather.gov/glasgow
Thunderstorm Wind, Richland
- When
- June 4, 4:18 PM MST
- Where
- Richland County, Savage
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 47.450, -104.350
A trained spotter in the town of Savage estimated thunderstorm wind gusts of at least 60 mph.
- Thunderstorm Wind
- Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1094821.