Tight west/east surface pressure gradients across the western portions of the Billings Forecast Area resulted in some high wind gusts near the Crazy Mountain Foothills.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
Tight west/east surface pressure gradients across the western portions of the Billings Forecast Area resulted in some high wind gusts near the Crazy Mountain Foothills.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 9, 7:58 PM MST, 3 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
758 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2023
.UPDATE...
Overall forecast in good shape this evening. Made minor
adjustments for the latest NBM trends. Winds are beginning to
gust around 50 mph around Livingston and Big Timber. Maybe a few
hours later than forecast, but looking at indicators and latest
guidance will be on track for gusts over 60 mph in Livingston by
midnight, and along the US-191 corridor by sunrise tomorrow
morning. Probabilities of reaching 60+ mph in Livingston are
still around 90 percent overnight, and around 70 percent for Big
Timber to Harlowton around 5am. No changes to the going wind
warnings/advisory planned at this time. Surge of mid level
moisture overnight into tomorrow morning looks to be enough to
squeeze out at least low chances (20 to 30 percent) of light snow.
Snow accumulations will be light with this activity, at a 90
percent chance for less than a tenth of an inch, so expect a
dusting at most where snow does manage to develop and reach the
ground overnight. Chambers
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday Night...
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows drying across the area as
the remaining cloud cover over eastern MT moves out. To our west,
high clouds are beginning to stream in ahead of our next system
which will bring snow back to the mountains (mainly west facing
aspects) tonight through tomorrow morning. The main impact for the
short term is wind along the western foothills.
At Livingston, strong gap flow is expected to develop this
evening, lasting through early Sunday morning. Current pressure
gradient readings from IDA to LWT show the gradient is already
starting to tighten. The NAEFS pressure gradient plumes for this
cross section continue to show the gradient peaking between 15-20
mb, which is plenty for strong gap wind criteria. While the 700 mb
winds will be favorable, they do not look overly strong to allow
warning criteria to be reached. Regardless, strong winds will
impact the Livingston area tonight (Wind Probs Below).
As the surface trough begins to shift east by late tonight, the
potential for strong winds will shift towards Big Timber and
Harlowton (Wind Probs Below). This potential is supported by the
the favorable pressure gradient and increasing 700 mb winds
(around 50 knots). Timing of the strongest winds will be delay
from Livingston, so the best period looks to be from late tonight
through early Sunday afternoon. One thing to note, the window for
the strongest winds looks to be a little earlier in the morning
and shorter for Harlowton than Big Timber. This is based on the
timing of the strongest 700 mb winds and atmospheric stability.
Otherwise, moderate wind gusts (20-30 mph) will spread across the
plains tomorrow as the shortwave moves through. This shortwave
will bring snow mainly to the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains, where
the western facing aspects will see 4-10 inches of snow. While the
plains will remain mostly dry, there is a slight (10-20%) chance
of a brief light snow early Sunday. After that, temperatures will
warm into the 40s for most places.
Wind Gust Strength Probabilities:
50 mph gusts: Livingston 100%, Big Timber & Harlowton 80%
60 mph gusts: Livingston 90%, Big Timber & Harlowton 60%
70 mph gusts: Livingston 30%, Big Timber & Harlowton 10%
Arends
Monday through Saturday...
A shortwave and associated cold front is expected to drop through
the area on Monday, causing winds to shift around to the north
and east. The wave still looks to bring moderate rain and snow
chances, greatest over the southwest mountains where precipitation
chances range from 50-80 percent. Precipitation chances over the
lower elevations range from 30-50 percent along and west of a
Ryegate to Billings to Sheridan line, decreasing to the east.
Precipitation looks to diminish into Monday night. With regards to
snowfall, amounts look generally light, with a couple inches in
the southern mountains, and an inch or less for the lower
elevations at this time. Latest NBM probabilities for 0.5 inches
of snow or more currently range from 20-40 percent for the
foothill locations south and west of Billings.
Latest ensembles have upper ridging building back over the region
through the middle part of the week, as an upper low undercuts
the ridge through the SW US into the southern plains. Winds may be
breezy at times along the western foothills, although the chances
for wind gusts of 50 mph or higher remain fairly low (30 percent
or less). Ensembles continue to indicate another shortwave
dropping out of the northwest on Friday, with limited
precipitation potential. Temperatures through the long term will
likely remain a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with no sign of
cold air. Highs look to range from the upper 30s to 40s most
days. Lows in the 20s are forecast at night. STP
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through the period at the lower elevations. Snow
will spread into the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains late
tonight, obscuring the high terrain. SW to W winds will strengthen
along the western foothills tonight. Look for gusts up to 50-60
knots at KLVM after 03z, with gusts to 50 kts at K6S0 and K3HT by
12z. STP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/047 033/041 023/042 027/047 028/047 025/041 024/044
22/J 14/O 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 00/U
LVM 026/043 031/041 023/041 022/047 024/044 020/041 023/045
23/S 34/O 10/U 00/U 01/U 10/B 00/U
HDN 023/049 028/042 021/043 021/049 021/047 022/042 021/046
22/J 13/O 00/B 00/U 00/U 11/B 00/U
MLS 021/044 026/037 017/038 022/045 022/044 023/038 021/043
12/J 01/E 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
4BQ 023/046 029/041 021/042 025/048 027/047 024/040 023/045
02/J 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
BHK 015/039 020/034 010/036 019/045 022/043 018/036 017/039
02/J 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
SHR 018/047 026/041 020/041 020/050 022/049 021/042 020/047
12/J 13/O 10/B 00/U 00/U 11/B 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM MST Sunday FOR
ZONES 65-66.
High Wind Warning remains in effect from 11 PM this evening
to 5 PM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 141-172-228.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billingsPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
834 PM MST Sat Dec 09 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0555 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SSW Big Timber 45.81N 109.98W
12/09/2023 M52.00 MPH Sweet Grass MT ASOS
0714 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ENE Livingston 45.70N 110.45W
12/09/2023 M65.00 MPH Park MT ASOS
&&
trcPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
938 PM MST Sat Dec 09 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0807 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 12 SE Emigrant 45.27N 110.54W
12/09/2023 M53.00 MPH Park MT Mesonet
&&
trcPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
1146 PM MST Sat Dec 09 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0943 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ENE Livingston 45.69N 110.50W
12/09/2023 M61.00 MPH Park MT Dept of Highways
1018 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ENE Livingston 45.70N 110.45W
12/09/2023 M70.00 MPH Park MT ASOS
1107 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 12 SE Emigrant 45.27N 110.54W
12/09/2023 M53.00 MPH Park MT Mesonet
&&
JKLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted up to 58 mph at the Big Timber Airport.
Winds gusted to 58 mph along the eastern foothills of the Crazy Mountains.
Winds gusted to 58 mph across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1148545, 1148544, 1148543.