Showers and thunderstorms developed over northwest Arkansas during the late morning of the 2nd and moved northeastward while expanding in coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening as a strong upper level trough moved northeastward from west Texas toward the Missouri and Kansas border. The rain persisted until the late morning of the 3rd.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed over northwest Arkansas during the late morning of the 2nd and moved northeastward while expanding in coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening as a strong upper level trough moved northeastward from west Texas toward the Missouri and Kansas border. The rain persisted until the late morning of the 3rd. Rainfall accumulations in excess of two inches occurred along and east of a line from Cassville to Osage Beach, with embedded accumulations over three inches near Lebanon, Houston and Salem. Low water crossings became flooded at many locations east of Springfield, and minor to moderate river flooding occurred along the Big Piney, Jacks Fork, Gasconade and James Rivers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 10:55 PM CST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1055 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
Key Messages:
1. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall through Friday morning.
Flood Watch mainly along and south of the I44 corridor.
2. Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
tonight...mainly over south central Missouri.
3. Strong wind gusts up to 45 mph Friday along with much colder
air.
4. Warming trend late this weekend into early next week.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
A warm front lifting into the area has resulted in some elevated
hail storms this afternoon as MUCAPE of 500-1,000 J/kg and
effective shear of 50-60 kts is over the area. Expect a few more
elevated hailers (mainly small hail with some 1 inch hail
possible) this afternoon and evening.
For the rest of this event, which is primarily a heavy rain and
flooding concern, the forecast remains on track with no
substantial changes.
Still looking at some marginal severe potential tonight (1" hail
and 60 mph wind gusts) but that threat is small.
On top of convection that has already occurred, widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall is expected this evening into Friday
morning. Storm total QPF expectations can be mainly split between
north and south of I-44. To the north, 1-2" of rain with locally
higher amounts of 2-3" is expected. Some minor flooding will be
possible in this area. South of I-44, expect widespread rainfall
of 2-3" with locally higher amounts of 3-4" possible. This
forecast is backed up by HREF PMM and LPMM QPF data which
typically handles this type of scenario well. The greatest
flooding concern exists to the south where River Flood Warnings
and a Flood Watch are in effect. Flash flooding will also be a
concern in this area. For the river flooding, expect rivers to
remain high into the weekend.
On the back end of the system, the coldest outlier model guidance
shows cooler low level temperatures and resulting snowfall as the
system is exiting the area. Given that these are outliers and the
large majority of guidance suggests low level and surface
temperatures too warm for snow, have a small chance for some snow
to briefly mix with rain over the northern CWA Friday. However,
ground and air temperatures and diurnal timing are not supportive
of any accumulations or impacts.
Friday will be breezy with gusts of 35-45 mph. Look for highs in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
The cooler than normal temperatures will only last through Friday.
As the low pulls away from the area, we should get back to a more
westerly flow aloft with a drier air mass in place and
temperatures warming to above normal over the weekend into the mid
and upper 50s Saturday and the 60s on Sunday as southerly winds
return in advance of a low pressure system developing in the
plains.
Monday should warm up well into upper 60s to mid 70s ahead of the
next front. Models are keeping the bulk of the QPF with this next
system to the north of the area where the better lift is expected
with the upper jet energy. We are maintaining low PoPs during the
Tuesday to Wednesday time frame as more model variability begins
to show up in the later portion of the long term forecast.
Temperatures will also see a downward trend Tuesday into Wednesday
behind the cold front to more normal or slightly below normal for
this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
Surface low pressure is moving across Arkansas late this evening
and will continue to move off to the northeast across Arkansas tonight
and into eastern Missouri on Friday.
Widespread rainfall will continue to develop and move across the
area tonight into Friday north of the low. The rain will then end
from west to east during the day Friday.
There is just enough instability that some isolated embedded
rumbles of thunder will occur at times mainly along and east of
Highway 65 tonight into early Friday morning.
IFR to LIFR ceilings will occur within the rain along with
decreased visibilities.
Winds will also increase tonight into Friday as the low moves to
the northeast across Arkansas into eastern Missouri as the
pressure gradient tightens across the area. As a result some gusty
winds will occur tonight into Friday at times. Winds will weaken
Friday evening as the low moves off to the east.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ070-071-081>083-
090>098-101>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...WiseHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 843 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040245- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 843 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited hail risk. Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk. Elevated lightning risk. Significant excessive rainfall risk Limited non thunderstorm wind risk. DISCUSSION... Widespread rain will continue to move across the area the rest of this evening into Friday morning. Moderate rain with pockets of heavy rain will occur at times through the overnight hours. The heaviest rain will be along and southeast of the interstate 44 corridor where 2 to 3 inches of rain are expected, with localized higher amounts possible. This will likely lead to flooding over the area and a flood watch is in effect from this evening into midday Friday. There will be low risk for small hail and gusty winds in a few of the stronger storms tonight into Friday morning across far southern Missouri. Wind gusts over 30 mph will be possible over the area tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Tuesday. The low will track across the area on Friday with showers and a few thunderstorms continuing. Severe weather is not expected, but flooding will remain possible with the heavy rain potential. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible across the area as the low moves across the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Wise
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:30 UTC.
45 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall closed Route J from Route JJ to Mincy.
State Highway MO-125 at Brushy Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway EE at the North Fork River was flooded and impassable.
Highway C at Flat Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway 97 at the Spring River was flooded and impassable.
Highway 142 was closed at the Cox Creek low water crossing due to flooding.
Highway AB at Wolf Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway TT at Crooked Creek was closed due to flooding from heavy rainfall.
Highway Z at the Finley Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway 125 at north of Highway 60 was flooded due to heavy rainfall.
Highway 142 at the Eleven Point River was flooded and impassable.
Route AA at Mill Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway J at the Osage Fork of the Gasconade River due to heavy rainfall and flooding.
Route EE was closed at a low water crossing due to heavy rainfall and flooding.
Highway ZZ at Myers Branch was closed due to flooding.
Highway H at the North Fork River low water crossing was flooded and impassable.
Highway A at Frederick Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway 181 at Bryant Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway P at Big Creek was flooded and impassable.
Route KK at the Spring Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway Y at the Niangua River was flooded and impassable.
Greenwood Road was flooded and impassable with two feet of water at the headwaters of the Pomme De Terre River.
Route HH at Ingalls Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway W at Givins Branch was flooded and impassable.
Highway U at the South Prong Jacks Fork was flooded and impassable.
Highway Z at the Elk Creek was flooded and impassable.
Route H was flooded and impassable.
Highway B at North Cobb Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway FF was flooded at the conjunction of Turkey and Hunters Creeks.
Highway U at Bryant Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway Y at Cowskin Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway BB at the Dry Auglaize Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway FF at Bear Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway E at the Gasconade River was flooded and impassable.
Highway K at Whites Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway 95 at Spring Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway T near Lick Creek was flooded and impassable.
A large portion of Highway 19 was closed due to flooding of a low water area after heavy rainfall.
Highway NN at Rocky Creek was closed due to flooding.
Highway HH at Carr Creek was closed due to flooding.
Highway BB near Boiling Spring Access was closed due to flooding.
Highway W at Pine Creek was closed at a low water crossing due to flooding.
Highway W at the Pike Creek low water crossing was closed due to flooding.
Route U at Flat Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway YY at the Casto Valley Creek low water crossing was closed due to flooding from heavy rainfall.
Highway J near the Big Piney River was closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1088311, 1088314, 1088316, 1088321, 1088324, 1088320, 1088325, 1088329, 1088326, 1088327, 1088333, 1088328, 1088332, 1088330, 1088331, 1088338, 1088334, 1088335, 1088339, 1088337, 1088340, 1088341, 1088342, 1088343, 1088344, 1088347, 1088348, 1088692, 1088694, 1088695, 1088697, 1088699, 1088700, 1088704, 1088706, 1088707, 1088708, 1088710, 1088711, 1088713, and more.