Damaging Winds in Missouri, July 29, 2023

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.Discussion...
Issued at 133 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2023

Key Messages...

- Excessively hot and humid conditions continue today for the KC
  Metro and areas along and south of the Missouri River.

- Periods of scattered showers and storms are expected through
  this morning and into the afternoon; generally across the
  northern half of Missouri and into northeastern Kansas.

Detailed Discussion...

Through 1 AM, isolated thunderstorms continue to develop along
the analyzed surface front sinking into northern Missouri from
Iowa. Short range CAMs continue to struggle with resolving this
activity, most likely due to the lack of large scale forcing for
ascent. The H500 ridge this morning remains rather flattened,
centered over the southern Rockies and NM/CO tablelands, with the
ridge spanning from the Sierra to the Mid-Mississippi valley. As
discussed previously, several short wave upper level disturbances
continue to ride along the prevailing northwesterlies off the
northern Plains and into the Midwest. As expected, a weak surface
trough continues to settle southward this morning, the focus for
this mornings convection in southern Iowa and now northern
Missouri.

For now, believe any convection will remain near, and as a result
of, this boundary, as it continues to work through a rather unstable
environment. If an updraft can tap into it, there's elevated
instability on the order of 2000 to 4000 J/Kg CAPE still available
early this morning. For this morning's hourly PoPs, I started
with the NBM PPI01 and adjusted with CONShort and some hand edits,
this was collaborated with my neighbors. Additionally, we've
already got convection ongoing across the Badlands, given the
upper flow and MCS parameters moving forward, it's looking
possible we could have some semblance of convection sliding into
the NE/KS/MO border regions by mid to late morning. Though, the
maintenance will depend on how far south the surface trough has
sank, that may hinder it's persistence. Regardless, considering
how conditional the environment is on the whole, I added adjusted
PoPs through midday for the possibility.

In short, precipitation chances through today are highly conditional
and will more than likely depend upon the mesoscale environment. For
example, a remnant MCV continues to churn across the western KC
Metro counties early this morning, the result of the Friday night
eastern Kansas and Nebraska Convection. This feature could easily
become a focus for isolated convection later this morning,
especially as the surface trough continues toward the Missouri
River.

Any convection and cloud cover this morning will have an impact on
temperatures this afternoon. At this time, I do not have any plans
to trim counties from the going Excessive Heat Warning. However, if
the surface trough and associated cloud cover and/or convection
drifts farther south than currently expected, we could easily see
significant restraint of temperatures due to the disruption of solar
insolation. The likely scenario that will play out is temperatures
will be slow to rise under cloud cover but as soon as any breaks
occur, temperatures will have the potential to soar and more
importantly, with dew points in the 60s and 70s south of the
boundary, maximum heat index values will easily exceed 105 F in
those locations.

For tonight, precipitation chances will persist as another complex
of thunderstorms is likely to slide southeastward across the region
as the western ridge remains flattened and our region remains under
prevailing northwesterly flow aloft. The good news, this will keep
temperatures down on Sunday, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

With the synoptic pattern holding steady into early next week, with
limited variability or improvement, continued rounds of slight
chance to chance showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Tuesday. By Midweek, the H500 ridge will shift eastward, opening the
region up to another period of well above normal heat and humidity
for Wednesday into Thursday. After which, long range solutions
suggest a surface trough will sink southward into the region,
bringing precipitation chances and more seasonable temperatures to
close out the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2023

A line of storms over central NE is moving to the southeast and if
it holds together would affect the terminals late this morning to
early this afternoon. Timing into STJ around 15Z and MCI and MKC
around 16Z. Have added a tempo group with TSRA and gusty winds to
account for this potential. Within storms, there will likely be
periods of IFR conditions. Outside of the storms, VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
432 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-300945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
432 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Excessive heat continues today for areas along and south of the
 Missouri river.

 Strong to possibly severe storms are possible today. Strong winds
 and hail are the main hazards.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 Multiple chance for storms will exist next week. The threat of
 severe weather is low.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo